TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks for the update. I'll keep checking on on the GOM.
Looks like the LLC is somewhat elongated, or at least not fully consolidated.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BRIEFLY MONDAY
AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ENERGY FROM A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE AREA. GIVEN LARGE CONSENSUS FROM OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THIS IDEA THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
Link
We were in S. Ft. Myers then so we only got strong TS winds with Hurricane gusts. Scary day for many folks...the most stifling heat and humidity I've ever been in was after the storm and I've lived in South FL my whole life. What a miserable week that was...
MARK
14.4N36.6W
AOI
MARK
20.4N/68.3W
Are you just looking for a rise out of people?
The confidence level is extremely low at this point. It is too far out into the future.
Everyone I know from Tampa evacuated to Orlando. Big mistake.
apology for repost, new to this posting,,,just got lost in the transition to new blog
Just an observation and something that may need to be monitored a little more closely. Watching quite a few satelite images and loops for the last few hours. AOI just to the east of the SE Bahamas is showing more signs of circulation and much more convection quickly.
Probably a mid level entity at present, but it bears watching since it is close to any significant populated land mass. The area aprox. 21-23 north & 68-69 west moving WNW
StormW? probably address this in your synopsis
Great update as always StormW, Any chance you'll be calling into Barometer Bobs show tonight?
My dad went to daytona beach and it ended up ripping the roof off his hotel over there while we (in the center of the cone in Pasco County) barely got a sprinkle.
The forecast accuracy this far out is like 1%.
prob on fri or sat
Link
Just look at his blog name?
I think his answer to this is yes.
There is a very low chance of development here.
Top O' the morning to ya. Any thoughts on the wave entering the Bahamas? Were you able to include it in the synopsis?
No kidding! Come on now. the path has changed within 3 days drastically before, much less 3000 miles out. This can still go anywhere........ or nowhere.
Dont feed him, just ignore him and if nobody pays attention to what he says he will stop :-)
Agreed. The Quikscat showed that well.
Good convergence in the band to the north and to the south, but little if any on the eastern and western sides.
I was a little agressive yesterday in my forecast when it appeared from the TPW loop that all the moisture was streaming towards one point. Crow for me... Slow development should continue and we could see a depression anytime in the next 36 hours.
I have a friend in Punta Gorda who lost everything. He stayed thinking the storm was headed to Tampa.
90L: The one to watch
Viewing: 51 - 101
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