TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT en Agosto 13, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.

Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.


Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).

African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
-Upper level anticyclonic flow.

-NO SAL

-Gradually organizing LLC that may be closed.

-Growing convection

I really dont see how you could downcast this.



NHC's latest surface map has a closed low.
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Where are you at LB? We never measured winds with Rita, but, surge measured right at 7 feet or so, as the house is 11'2 above sea level (road is 4 foot) and we were about 2 inches shy from losing the house.

A town called Crowley between Lake Charles and lafayette
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-Upper level anticyclonic flow.

-NO SAL

-Gradually organizing LLC that may be closed.

-Growing convection

I really dont see how you could downcast this.

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Lily over my head...


Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Where are you at LB? We never measured winds with Rita, but, surge measured right at 7 feet or so, as the house is 11'2 above sea level (road is 4 foot) and we were about 2 inches shy from losing the house.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Rita was also bad here too we had 80 to 90 mph winds but over a longer period of time


Even near Baton Rouge, winds were gusting upwards of 50 mph, even higher on some of the taller buildings in that city. The rain was relentless. Rita was similar to Andrew in that it moved through slowly.
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02L also liking Dmax
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2928. centex
Quoting extreme236:


Not in these conditions? So your saying light to moderate shear, warm SSTs and a moist environment isn't good enough conditions?
Saying recent "last" need to be proven wrong or now changed before we assume TC now more likely. My model current reality, says conditions kill CV storms. I've heard about the change but that change is not proven to make a difference. I doubt at this point. Preparing you guys for let down.
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Rita was also bad here too we had 80 to 90 mph winds but over a longer period of time
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Quoting Drakoen:
New Orleans hit on the GFS 00z


"Let me tell you a little story about a man named Shh! Shh!

even before you start. That was a pre-emptive shh! Now, I have a whole bag of shh!' with your name on it." - Dr. Evil
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Extreme just put him on ignore. Its not worth trying to argue with a thick skulled downcaster.
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2924. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


Not in these conditions? So your saying light to moderate shear, warm SSTs and a moist environment isn't good enough conditions?


Acts like he's trying to get people riled up.

00Z NOGAPS.....is about a day slower on 90L reaching the islands.

Has ex-TD2 east of Florida on the end of the run.

Has the blob north of DR/Haiti making it to the Florida panhandle.
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Lili pulled through very quickly though, though so damage was considerably lower than what it otherwise could have been.

The Strongest gust i seen was around 140 my neighborhood had a big sheeted canopy that he put his party barge under and i seen that thing lift up like it was nothing and fly into the trees....thats all i had tosee
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Quoting KoritheMan:


My family and I will occasionally take a vacation at Orange Beach, AL, which, coincidentally, was the landfall point of Ivan. Orange Beach is very near Pensacola, FL. We were last there on vacation during May 2007 (from the 12th to 19th to be exact), and we saw a huge field of trees that died due to saltwater from Ivan's storm surge.


hey all,
I've been lurking for about 3 years now and don't comment much but I had to throw in my two cents on Ivan. I live in a small town south of Tallahassee about 3 miles from the mouth of 3 rivers and the storm surge from Ivan was the worst I've seen in my 20 years in Tallahassee. Ivan was a huge storm and I wouldn't like to see another on like him anytime soon.(read ever) I hope this thing in the Atlantic goes somewhere besides land.
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Quoting LouisianaWoman:
Lily was a dud here in Delcambre. Nothing worth noting damage wise for us. Now Rita on the other hand, well, that's a whole 'nother beast.


Isidore was worse in Gonzales than Lili was, and that was somewhat surprising.
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2920. Skyepony (Mod)
Been watching surface obs from nowCOAST & WUndermap. Pretty consistant noweast tip of Dominican Republic is south wind & just east of central DR over water to the south~ steady north wind now. I need a ship just south of east DR.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
Quoting centex:
Point is may not form. If it does will be very slow to develop. If not storm next couple days proves I'm right. This is amazing how many saying big storm. LOL nothing now and nothing I've seen shows me other than largest moisture influx into E ATL. I stand not corrected unil proven wrong by development. We don;t even have TD at this time, I'm norally a wishcaster but not in this conditions.


What conditions? There is minimal shear, and what shear there is is easterly. If a storm is moving in the direction the shear is coming from, then it has a greater chance of intensifying.

Combine with that with minimal to non-existent SAL (thanks to TD2), along with warm SSTs, and well...

Not to mention that the LLCC is gradually closing off, and may well be closed off right now. Above all the aforementioned factors, a closed LLC is the most important.
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damn, im tired! tracking an invest is annoying.
sobb, sobb, sobb, sobb, sobb
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2917. 7544
90l starting to come in view now
Link
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Lily was a dud here in Delcambre. Nothing worth noting damage wise for us. Now Rita on the other hand, well, that's a whole 'nother beast.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
Quoting centex:
Point is may not form. If it does will be very slow to develop. If not storm next couple days proves I'm right. This is amazing how many saying big storm. LOL nothing now and nothing I've seen shows me other than largest moisture influx into E ATL. I stand not corrected unil proven wrong by development. We don;t even have TD at this time, I'm norally a wishcaster but not in this conditions.


Not in these conditions? So your saying light to moderate shear, warm SSTs and a moist environment isn't good enough conditions?
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
With Lily here in South Louisiana i got sustain winds of 100 with gusts reaching 145


Lili pulled through very quickly though, though so damage was considerably lower than what it otherwise could have been.
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Quoting IKE:


Staying off-topic...posting pictures not related to the tropics...
Thanks. That's what I was thinking. I see there are people who stay off topic, argue, are abusive, etc. I did get a kick out of ther person who posted the "space shuttle" as the Titanic, complete with a trailer hitch. Well anyway all blog buddies...got to go to work tomorrow, so I'm off to bed. Can't wait to see the future of 90L, and where it will end up finally.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


My family and I will occasionally take a vacation at Orange Beach, AL, which, coincidentally, was the landfall point of Ivan. Orange Beach is very near Pensacola, FL. We were last there on vacation during May 2007 (from the 12th to 19th to be exact), and we saw a huge field of trees that died due to saltwater from Ivan's storm surge.


It's 2009 and you can still see the effects in my neck of the woods, I live very close to Blackwater Bay, and the water from the bay tore up a lot of land. Funny (not really) when I was looking for a house down here 2 1/2 years agao, I pulled up Google Earth to look at some properties and couldn't figure out why everybody had blue roofs.
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2911. centex
Quoting extreme236:


Thats like the people who say if climo says no it can't happen. Well look at Felix and Humberto, they kinda disproved that huh?
Point is may not form. If it does will be very slow to develop. If not storm next couple days proves I'm right. This is amazing how many saying big storm. LOL nothing now and nothing I've seen shows me other than largest moisture influx into E ATL. I stand not corrected unil proven wrong by development. We don;t even have TD at this time, I'm norally a wishcaster but not in this conditions.
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With Lily here in South Louisiana i got sustain winds of 100 with gusts reaching 145
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2908. IKE
Quoting JRRP:
hmmmm
Link
CMC


Trended south on 90L...reaching islands in about the same time-frame as GFS.

Has ex-TD2 making it into the GOM on the end of the run.
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
Kori, you online?


Nah, I didn't bother getting online tonight. Still messing around with FFX. >_>
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


No apology needed, but they were in the middle of the right-front quadrant. Many did not have power for 8-10 days. Storm surge in Escambia Bay was very destructive and many houses were destroyed. I've heard stories (not sure if true) that there were at least 9 bodies scooped off of the beach after the storm


My family and I will occasionally take a vacation at Orange Beach, AL, which, coincidentally, was the landfall point of Ivan. Orange Beach is very near Pensacola, FL. We were last there on vacation during May 2007 (from the 12th to 19th to be exact), and we saw a huge field of trees that died due to saltwater from Ivan's storm surge.
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Kori, you online?
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2904. JRRP
hmmmm
Link
CMC
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5080
Quoting KoritheMan:


Of course not, I apologize if it sounded like I was implying that a Category 3 was not threatening. Many of the more powerful U.S. hurricanes have been Category 3's. What really matters is, whether or not you are in that right-front quadrant, which I am assuming your friends were.


No apology needed, but they were in the middle of the right-front quadrant. Many did not have power for 8-10 days. Storm surge in Escambia Bay was very destructive and many houses were destroyed. I've heard stories (not sure if true) that there were at least 9 bodies scooped off of the beach after the storm
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Quoting centex:
No ones saying it has chance to die like everything before. I follow patterns and pattern is die.


Thats like the people who say if climo says no it can't happen. Well look at Felix and Humberto, they kinda disproved that huh?
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This will really help too....everything is pointing toward a very large storm coming
MJO
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 140524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR
14.2N 39.3W MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
35 KT. WWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED. ADVISORIES ARE NO
LONGER BEING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N72W TO 4N69W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT
CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WRN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 2334
UTC INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND AN INVERTED-V
STRUCTURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. THIS WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
68W-70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN
68W-72W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 79W-82W. LARGER CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 12N27W 13N36W 10N48W
11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
25W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND
INTO THE E GULF FROM 29N81W TO 26N86W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE TROUGH AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF TO
28N85W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC ARE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF AND
FLORIDA N OF 25N E OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N W OF 91W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...AS OF 0300 UTC. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS CENTERED OVER
TEXAS NEAR 31N102W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND THE N PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE TO REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE WATERS
LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MUCH
OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS S OF E CUBA NEAR
20N76W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TREKS WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC NW
OF A LINE FROM 24N80W TO 31N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS N
FLORIDA TO NEAR 29N81W INTO THE ATLC TO NEAR 31N79W...AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 36N64W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO N OF THE ERN BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 71W-76W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W
AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 36N64W. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
HISPANIOLA IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 23N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-29N
BETWEEN 53W-56W ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 36N64W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N45W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 36N31W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N28W DOMINATES THE OVER THE ERN ATLC
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
2898. centex
No ones saying it has chance to die like everything before. I follow patterns and pattern is die.
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Quoting centex:
Expert follow models, only problem is they have been totally wrong this year. I heard maybe better later in year LOL. facts sometimes hurt.


You would be singing a different tune if we had development prior to August. It'd go something like this:

Person A: We're going to have no development in August. Everything has fizzled thus far.

centex: Bah, not true. Everything also fizzled up until the last of June, and then we had two storms back to back. Give it time.

But since such a thing has not happened, you are making the fatal mistake of letting your guard down.
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2896. IKE
Quoting popartpete:
What would constitute bad behavior for a ban? I always try to be pleasant and respectful, so I don't think I would qualify, but I'd hate to inadvertently break some rule of which I was unaware. Thanks!


Staying off-topic...posting pictures not related to the tropics...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
the Admins for dran sure will start baning if that storm got in too the gulf if any one where too get off key


so has soon has 90L starts cooking the Admins start baning


all so this blog will be come flooded in a few days when 90L starts cooking



so if you dont want to get ban stay on key
What would constitute bad behavior for a ban? I always try to be pleasant and respectful, so I don't think I would qualify, but I'd hate to inadvertently break some rule of which I was unaware. Thanks!
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I understand that KTM, but they told me that it just stalled when it made landfall and it was 10-12 hours of a$$ whipping winds. Haven't been through one yet, but I don't think a CAT 3 is anything to sneeze at.


Of course not, I apologize if it sounded like I was implying that a Category 3 was not threatening. Many of the more powerful U.S. hurricanes have been Category 3's. What really matters is, whether or not you are in that right-front quadrant, which I am assuming your friends were.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Ivan was indeed very destructive, but its southwestern eyewall eroded prior to landfall, resulting in weakening from a Category 4 to a Category 3.


I understand that KTM, but they told me that it just stalled when it made landfall and it was 10-12 hours of a$$ whipping winds. Haven't been through one yet, but I don't think a CAT 3 is anything to sneeze at.
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Quoting JLPR:
oh before I go



^^^^
90L sure is liking D-max
Uh, oh...did somebody say D-max? lol!
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2891. centex
Expert follow models, only problem is they have been totally wrong this year. I heard maybe better later in year LOL. facts sometimes hurt.
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Quoting IKE:


Great song.

I just woke up....had my computer on...looked at the latest GFS and thought about the adage...it only takes one. This would be the "A" storm.


Yeah.... I don't like the thought of anything getting into the GOM with the SST's that are currently out there
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Quoting centex:
Yea zoom in and set to max you see someting. I don't see anythig. The bigger question is whether we can have anything in august.


Of course we can. Latest satellite images from Navy and RAMSDIS show its much more organized. Should be a good TWO at 2am.
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2888. JRRP
big waves
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5080
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Tell that to my friends who went through IVAN


Ivan was indeed very destructive, but its southwestern eyewall eroded prior to landfall, resulting in weakening from a Category 4 to a Category 3.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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