TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching
Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.
Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.
Be careful clicking on external links in blog comments
A comment may have been posted on my blog over the weekend containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. The exact link responsible has eluded us thus far, and we are also investigating the possibility that a bad banner ad was responsible. To provide an extra layer of protection, we've installed software on the blogs that will now warn users that they are leaving the site when they click on an external link, so that one has do an extra click to go to an external site. This will give users an opportunity to think twice before clicking on a potentially dangerous link. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by the attack. Please submit a support ticket to help us out in the future for any issues of this nature.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 — Blog Index
Link
Leave it to the GFS to kill something off that its been developing into a monster for weeks. Last night it had it as a Category 4/5 hitting New Orleans.
Saint Maarten, Wednesday
“I call on the community to make sure you have everything in place and your storm ready. Everybody must take the required actions to minimize the risk of injury and damage to property in case there is a hurricane strike, and the time to act is now if you haven’t already. Remember our theme for the season, ‘It only takes one – Be Prepared’,” Fire Commander Salomon told the Government Information Service (GIS) on Wednesday.
The 06Z GFS splits 90L in two, with one weakening as it heads towards the islands and other behind which is stronger. resulting in a slower evolution than previous runs. It does not seem the 06Z run is handling 90L well. But the 12Z and 00Z are more reliable anyway.
Reason why Dean and Felix tracked fairly south, as well as Felix having very high winds for a fairly highish pressure for a Cat 5 (929mb.)
Also, thank you to all of you who replied to my post last night on meteorology degrees. It really helped, and I really appreciate it!
How do they deal with high pressures? As I notice the GFS has it around the 1035 mark. (Which would be fairly strong for the B/A High. Quite easterly as well.. more chance of recurvature if it plays out.)
I hope it pans out. Apparently no one gave the NWS that memo.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDS WEST. SRLY WINDS WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED SATURDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING BEST MOISTURE
AND RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SE LA...MS AND AL. HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH SRLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY OVER SERN ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
BY MIDWEEK...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SERN STATES INTO TX...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS. TRENDED POPS GRADUALLY DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE AREA COMES INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
We just can't get no love. Or rain. :( Lol. But it seems like a strong BH at least for today.
and straight to Bermuda
Fabian type track?
Wouldn't that mean 90L would go straight west if the Bermuda High builds in?
seems so, but that's the near end of the run.
Because we barely see any recurvature in Ana even up to 240hrs, indicates that the ECMWF is showing a weaker trough.
ECMWF/GFS troughing and ridging mean shows a weaker trough compared to the GFS
It would seem so to me. I'm just not sure of the timing. There may be a trough come through to make a weekness just in time. I hope so.
System is 2200 miles east of the islands...3500 miles east of Florida.
The orange african wave, the one that the models are making into a Strong tropical cyclone.
BBL
It's got a ways to go.
ECMWF shows it as a threat to the extreme northern islands(smaller chances though, compared to yesterday) and Bermuda. GFS curves it in a similar fashion.
Ensembles are runs of the same "computer model" with different initial conditions and run at a lower resolution.
What would be the system in your graphic sitting on the East Coast of Florida?
Thanks!
But now we know something very broad is on the surface. It's slowly organizing into something. Something this big takes a while to organize, to get all the convection together.
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L
INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 13
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 11.0 21.0 280./ 8.9
6 12.7 23.1 309./26.8
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Ana
Link
Won't say much about the other models since you have already discussed them... hehe.
Thank you for the response NRT
Ya got that right...
Calcasieu Pass, LA
Water Temperature (WTMP): 88.3 °F
Sabine Pass North, TX
Water Temperature (WTMP): 91.6 °F
Rollover Pass, TX
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
Hmmmm? Some of our stations aren't reporting anymore. Wonder why? Oh yeah that little fella that came to call last year. ;)
Viewing: 2701 - 2751
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 — Blog Index