TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching
Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.
Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.
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I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Know it well!
Huh. You go up, I go down...into the basement in Slidell.
hmmm so depending on the timing of everything it looks like things could get pushed anywhere from North Carolina south to Miami area?
Wish that was coming down when we need it,instead of now,
It likely miss the weakness.
Thats in the works for my new system Paul,..my IT guy used his today,..and I said
Dude,Hook me up..Dont care the cost,..get er done,I said
yea, i do not think wave is entirely fish with a ridge forecast to be in placed over the SW ATL. But still alot of uncertainty this rstly on.
...AHEM
well now... you moved it off of the top of me
Thanks!
CRS
TD #2 Holding Steady; the ECMWF/GFS Monster; and the Largest Exoplanet Ever Found
very cool! You be the guinea pig...keep me posted on how you like it...
why? Is the high moving faster west?
A few years ago that was the case with some storms. Anyone?
Is Portlight gonna have a fundraiser in Chas? If so, when and where? TIA
I see.. okay , thanks for the lesson! I'm understanding a bit more now!
Oh one more thing.. How long does the high sit there once it moves west? Does it move back and forth or do we know? I remember one year it stayed in place for it seemed all season.
Check out David's path - look familiar?
Link
we had on in Summerbville in May...and have one planned for Danile Island @ Bishop England HS in October...don't recall the date right now...will post it tomorrow....
Where is this monster going????
Chucktown, I don't like the irony of the 9's!!
It's August 29th
El Nino may be playing a stronger role in this hurricane season than otherwise considered to be the case. Dry air, shear, conditions that never seem to be just right are all conspiring to prevent systems like TD2 from developing.
Pat: I've got a place on Hartwell and you can stop by on the way to Presslord's place farther down the Savannah.
Simple... too early to tell. Once the disturbance develops and we're about 5 to 7 days from a landfall then we'll know with some degree of accuracy where it could hit (if it doesn't go out to sea).
Hey Tia, yea, sometimes forget how lucky we have been here in the Lowcountry, the thing that sucks is that the law of averages will eventually catch up
I agree.
Ill make a note right now on that,Thank you
Hi Taz - good to see you back!
the exact nature and behaviour of the high is controlled by mid-lattitude forces and thats why the north atlantic oscillation is used to give an idea of the high. Somes it remains strong all season, 2004, and 2007. Sometimes it changes as the season progresses, 2003 and 2008.
We wouldn't be that lucky. Actually, I am expecting a few very strong ones to soak up all the TCHP .
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