TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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ROFLMAO ..... Heck thats the best thing that has ever happen to you all LSU fans..... Sabin could not get you all another National Championship if he tried..... Heck he went 12 and 0 and could not finish the deal with Alabama.....
I'm a Tigers Fan but the other one hehehehe
Taco :0)
Lets give it 48 hours...ok? I'll post more reasonable and accurate observations as the season evolves. Right now it's bull. I do normally concur with your synopsis as I do so now, as well as 456 and IKE (I just love his opinion) and Stormchaser and
Tampa and Chicklet and Taco, and... etc,,,,,,,,/SW Anyway, what's up?
thoughts have not changed
Where is the center of that mess?
not sure but I suspect over West Africa along 10W-15W, that's where I pick up most vort.
Don't click an unknown link posted by an unknown blogger and you'll be ok.
no need for such paranoia. them knowing what you look like won't make much difference.
No one did sportfan,.thats a Google File Image
We feel that TD 2 will recurve out to sea and therefore not threaten the US. Our data also shows that the wave exiting Africa will also curve as it gets caught up in a trough.
who's "we" and any proof??
Drak I believe the rest of the wave has yet to exit the coast. The large area of convection over the land is in association with the same wave.
I still think the models are aggressive. It's peaking up time in the Atlantic Basin though.
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correct, the wave still over land
Welcome to the LSU Earth Scan Lab.
The ESL is a satellite data receiving station and image processing facility for environmental data from six unique earth observing sensor systems. We specialize in real-time access to satellite imagery and measurements of the atmosphere, oceans and coastal areas within the Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean Sea region, data which we obtain directly from satellite transmissions to three antennas on LSU rooftops. These data have many applications for research, education, and state emergency response.
As an IT guy I would recommend to everyone:
1. Use Firefox with the AdBlock plus plugin... this blacklists a TON of problem sites.
2. Run a good anti-virus software. I use AVG Free edition. Scan daily, especially if you use social networking sites
3. Run a good firewall. I use zone alarm. It is a free firewall, and will lock down your pc tight. It is not as user friendly as other products so consider carefully before choosing.
4. Use a program such as Spybot S&D to immunize your PC against problem websites. This application is also a very good anti-malware scanner/remover. The Immunization function works on both IE and Firefox
5. Don't EVER click on something that pops up saying you are infected unless it is coming from your own virus software. This is a very common way of tricking people to install malware on their machine. In fact, if you see such a notice, odds are you're already infected. That's why steps 1-4 above are vitally important.
that is the best, 4-5 years without a serious infection
I have the pro to that but the home edition is just as good.
8PM is just an hour ago
The wave axis is off shore which matches well with the cimss 850mb vorticity maximum and the data from Atmos Albany
I have been on this site all day and not had one problem. Protect your PC before venturing out into the interweb
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