TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
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Take a breath....
i never said i didn't want the storm.. i didn't say i wanted it either. i am on the safeside for peace sake. lol
A novice here. Really?
Do you still think td 2 will continue west?
The upper environment could become somewhat more conducive for development of this area in the coming days.
farfetch if the ECMWF and GFDL was not showing the samething
Got the right, I seen someone post a few models of the low off Africa now, looks like a potential monster in the making!
models are meant for use as guidance only and do not depict final outcome in any one event things can and will change
No, not necessarily. It depends on the upper wind environment. Gustav actually weakened prior to landfall, despite passing over the Loop Current, because of southerly shear.
Moreover, even though the Bill wave is likely to develop, its ultimate track is uncertain. No way in hell this is going to recurve, though.
I'm not sure, maybe Ike. But I've seen examples with Frances though, that did not verified but Frances did enough a major would do.
You have a link to the ECMWF, haven't seen that one today. It is troubling the way several models are jumping on board with this.
coaps fsu edu site
Link
Too early to tell. It needs to form first. Ike wasn't forecast to become the behemoth it did...
O.....k????
Impossible at this point, unfortunately. Even if a weakness were to develop in the subtropical ridge, the system would not recurve, because it would be too far south to feel said weakness.
Yea I agree...people are forgetting there are major trofs forecasted to move across the US which will affect the steering flow and also shear levels. If a trof is sitting over the Gulf States, any storm will weaken before landfall. That is bad news though for the panhandle as a trof would protect LA and MS.
IIRC, the models did VERY well with Ike. Gustav was fairly close to on-target, too.
If a bomb or something could "kill" a hurricane, I am pretty sure it will kill a heck of a lot more than just the hurricane. The energy involved in a hurricane is immense.
I try and not lend any credence to forecasts beyond five days, so while there may be troughs moving across the Atlantic, it is impossible to tell which, if any, of these troughs will dictate the steering flow of the Bill wave, or even TD2, beyond say, five days out.
If you recall with Ivan, the track was consistently aimed at the western Florida peninsula, but gradually bent back to the west.
Thanks KOTG, but my computer refused to open the link , I know its probably safe but I've tightened up the security on my PC since yesterday due to the virus problems experienced by some including myself.
Yep, they're really getting gung ho about it. I'm curious what tomorrow will hold.
A...bomb???
>_>
Hurricanes are a vital part of nature. They are responsible for some of the annual rainfall in the southeastern United States during the summer months. Most importantly, they transport heat from the tropics to the poles.
Yes it is. That should effectively destroy my dock.....and do more damage to my house...
Link
I dont think I see the current depression even shown in the 'cast!
The dry air is quite abundant, and will likely inhibit significant intensification in the short-term. It would probably be better though, were TD2 to mitigate the dry air and rapidly develop, because then it would be more likely to make a poleward turn.
I am right there with you on this. My point was that all it takes is one degree shift in the forecast or a couple mb change in pressure and the whole track changes.
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