Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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the wave near 50w
this is not wunderground's fault. only if they do not take care of it are they at any fault.
Probably strong Cat 1.
SILENCE! You have been reported to the Chamber of Commerce for spreading the lie that hurricanes can hit Georgia. The Georgia Chamber of Commerce wants no dissension on its assertion that the Great State of Georgia is Hurricane Proof.
As for the source, if you use Firefox... get NoScripts. It is a bit irritating to get set up, but right now, there are 19 scripts being blocked just on this page alone... and none of them are ads. (I pay $10 a year to get no ads on here)
For people who have trashed computers... it is not your entire computer. It is the data on your hard disk. Most of it can be recovered by someone with the right tools and knowledge, if it is that valuable. Most likely, this virus/trojan is messing with people's boot sectors and file tables, so your computer can't find the data. Its still there, the computer just doesn't know where. You don't need to replace your entire computer, it is literally impossible for a virus (a computer program) to physically damage components of your computer. The most you might have to do is format your hard drive, or if you want to try recovering data, you may just need to buy a new hard drive and reinstall everything. www.newegg.com has the best prices if you want to go that route.
On the weather front, it seems that 99L got a little big for its britches and tried to go toe-to-toe with the SAL layer, and well... lost horribly. The wave coming off the coast looks nice now, but I don't see a huge amount of circulation, and the one right after it looks better IMO.
Drama...
No offense but almost every time your here you have something to publicly announce.
Either you like attention or you have allot of stuff going on.
I am new at blogging but I have been reading this blog for 2 years. Any one that has this problem should buy a router and block the web page (antivirusbestscan5.com)...
It worked for me... Or buy a firewall software… but I don’t like using them since it may slow your computer…
drama drama drama
Sorry, my bad. :(
WAY too early.
Sammy 99L is looking darn good and much better. The further West it goes the better the environment becomes.....the next 24hrs will be big to see if 99L will be a player.
link please?
Divergence
And convergence are low BUT improving.
Where do you get such advanced times from?
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ETAU (T0909)
12:00 PM JST August 11 2009
=========================================
Subject: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan
At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Etau (992 hPa) located at 33.3N 139.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving east at 17 knots.
RSMC Dvorak Intensity:
Gale-force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in south quadrant
70 NM from the center in north quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 33.6N 147.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 34.7N 149.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 36.1N 153.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
NEVER MIND...I was looking at an old run. It hits Hispaniola and curves out to sea.
I don't know what your problem is...but...that's WAY too rational...
If you've been able to track down the URL, I suggest notifying the major virus and anti-spyware websites that it sends out malware. I'm sure they would love to block it out via an upcoming update.
Link
It's a pay site but it's worth it.
?? The output from the 00Z GFS is still spitting out right now. It's only at 150 hours, still east of the Windwards.
Hm thats true.
Another gender confused disturbance.
**Rembers Alma-Arthur**
So in about 7 day's the GFS thinks we're looking down the barrel of a Category 1/2 Hurricane?
http://www.wunderground.com/members/tos.asp
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