Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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LMAO this post made my day, although it was edited.
Yeah, but do we really want to know ??
My work is done.
My Braves are right on their heels. Our bats have been hot since the All Star break.
That's what I would do. Try a system restore.Go back to last Wed or Thursday. I ran my McAfee which is updated daily and auto runs at night. I was 100% clean.
Yeah the models do look a little ominous.
It will not let me go into safe mode. This blue screen comes up.
If your virus hasn't blocked MSCONFIG you can go to the startup page and do a selective startup in safe mode. Or even select system restore from there. And if your anti virus gave you the name of the infection, you maybe able to find MANUAL REMOVAL steps with google.
I might hang around a few minutes. No virus problems.
thank you
It 100% has a closed low, right?
gonna start a CAsh for PC-clunkers program,..the wunderground will give folks a 450 dollar credit I hear for every PC damaged by the Advertisement embedded Virus.
O yeah,..Im on it like a Fat tick on a tired Bloodhound.
And If we dont get the PC replaced Drak,Im with you.
This all started Saturday when the New Blog was posted here..
One can easily go back there and see where I first encountered it. And I warned everyone about it then..
I CANNOT do the following on my main computer:
go online
system restore
fix it using avira virus scan
Safe Mode
launch any .exe programs
Quite !. A statement like that deserves some analysis.
What could he have meant?
Drak, go here
http://www.bleepingcomputer.com/forums/lofiversion/index.php/t212231.html
Read the post by quietman7
when installing windows, choose to install over the existing installation. DO NOT FORMAT if it asks you to. that way you'll keep your old files, but will have a fresh install of windows. let it re-install. once it finishes, you'll have a new my documents folder, and desktop. you'll be able to find your old my docs and desktop at c:/documents and settings/your old user name/
Drak do you know what came up when you got the virus?
it's probably not a good idea to spend too much time poking around in his head pottery...
sorry to say you may need a hard drive now if it got in there
You got the blue screen of death...
The browser froze and then I got a pop up. It got a virus called Advanced Virus Software
Could this be that Conficker virus that is going around?
probably till mid day tomorrow
I'm not a computer whiz, but....you've got serious problems.
I remember Saturday's blog....futuremet linked something that wouldn't let others access. That didn't have anything to do with it, did it? Anyone?
So then right in perfect time for D-min? lol
ROFL
They're averaging almost 6 runs a game since the break, that leads that National League.. and they have no offense? And they're only a game behind the Marlins.
(Sorry for the non-weather related posts.)
Virus talk should be over in the AM, and more to look at on 99l and what is chasing it. I will lurk then.
Even with all the chatter about the WuVirus, I am excited to have some ATL weather to watch.
Out.
Its from Sunday.
Okay you have got the same thing that I got. The past 2 days I was on the blog only and the Advanced Virus Remover downloaded on my computer twice. All I did was download, Malwarebytes' Anti-Malware and it removed it and the files it infected. However since you can't go online I see that will not help. The only thing I can think of you doing is doing a full operating system reset, but sadly you will lose all you files that you manually installed/have on your computer. I can't believe this happened, and I hope we find out who has cause this.
xD now that you say that tomorrow night sounds better lol
but if it keeps developing convection a red circle will appear soon since it has a great circulation already
and the one at 50W with its great circulation got me worried now =P
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