Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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A storm created right over us...er ..cool..or not?
Tomorrow am, storm.
Oops, there goes my neck out.
Yea now everyones gonna be freakin out. Oh well, if it gets them prepared then so be it.
Palm Beach County?? There is no channel 6 in Palm Beach County!
As long as the ghost storm comes with phantom winds, we should all be ok.
1845 - Never; never. No storms recorded. :)
Or, 1914. September 14th. Season of 1-0-0. (So after the said peak of Sept 10th. Only one other season did that, which was 1941. 11th Sept start. That finished 6-4-2.)
For post naming list seasons that would be 1977. Around August 29/30th with Anita. Which became a Cat 5. That finished 6-5-1.
OK note to self potential christmas gift haha you wish :)
Oh wow, thats no good. Well I have had PC's all my life and im in school for graphic design/photography so a Mac would be awesome for the graphics.
HAHA! Make it happen Captn. ;)
Thanks.
So we really have a long way to go before we break any recent records. I don't know how much faith I have in the 1845 one. Something could have formed and not been recorded...
Can't wait until Casper comes onto the naming list.
Hey man,serious rains in parts of Trinidad as well.
yep the thing is it makes it stronger in the Catl
and apparently it is guiding it a little to my north
...gulp... but at least it hasn't formed ...yet xD
Am i missing something from Dr. Lyons...unfavorable upper level winds...hum...i don't see it that unfavorable it may not be completely ideal but, its good enough for development....
Aug 14th forecast.....hardly any shear at all..i don't get his analysis at all...
don't believe the hype, macs can get viruses just like windows machines can
the issue is macs currently have such a small market share they just haven't been a target
and before you even think I'm anti-mac... my main workstation is a mac pro, I also own a new macbook and an iphone...however, I refuse to be a mac "fanboy" and buy into the garbage the fanboys use to push the product
I prefer OS X (and it is my main OS) but I also use Windows and several other flavors of *nix.
Yes - I am being sarcastic... It was supposed to be a funny joke or play on words. :-)
Carnage? Where do you find these words.
I saw the model support, and it's quite impressive but I'm gonna crawl before I walk, and wait and see before jumping onboard.
Absolutely. That can still happen to this day. However, 1842 had 9 storms recorded. So, they weren't totally inept back then.
1845 would still - more than likely - have been one of the slowest seasons in history even with the odd storm missed by shipping.
lol Drak we thought the same thing xD
Well I just want a computer without vista! I hate vista...lol. But I also need something with a good graphic card. Im still shopping.
He's in Africa packing for his long journey across the sea...his expedition starts tomorow
We had some major flooding here today,local met says it an area of low pressure.
I do hope your right
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