Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Me too and that rarely happens
LOL...LMAO
Link
It might actually be, cause last year his troll copy was talking about nor easters too
Hanna d-min is during the evening hours just before sunset and d-max is during the hours just before sunrise
Imposter back again.... c c h s v w...
WS, you really should consider a name change to "Wheresitgonnago".
IMPOSTER!!!!
Your cchsVweatherman...
Seen & TY - will face this one first if/as it developes - am concerned that exisiting conditions in Caribbean are favourable for something to develope as system tracks further West
look at these freaking SST's in the Central and Western Caribbean.....ouch.
Well, I've spent the last while conducting a more thorough analysis. My conclusions are as follows:
As Doctor Masters stated, the conditions for 99L favor development. However, this storm is likely to take a track rarely seen due to some unusual conditions in the Atlantic Ocean at this time.
The dark blue arrows on my graphic indicate the northerly Antarctic winds, which are violent winds sweeping across Antarctica at the present time. These winds will likely push 99L in a northerly direction. Coupled with the westerly flow from Africa, I believe this storm will head to the Northeastern coast of the United States, where it will combine with several Atlantic Waterspouts and a strong Northeasterly wind along the way to form a very powerful Nor'easter. All those with interests in this area should begin considering steps to prepare for this Nor'easter.
As the graphic indicates, the green winds of the ITCZ will likely not be powerful enough to counteract these Antarctic winds and nudge the storm back to Africa. El Nino's cross winds will almost certainly help to advance the Nor'easter condition, possibly resulting in one of the most powerful Nor'easters ever seen.
Again, as my graphic clearly indicates, and based on data obtained from my V1-ViperDvorak radar system, conditions are extremely favorable for 99L to be come a Nor'easter. All those on the northern Atlantic coast should begin preparations.
Time to put down the alcohol and go to bed, your mind is playing tricks on you.
As long as the disturbance stays shallow... it should definitely have that W component to it... now if it gains depth then we could be looking at some N component to start materializing with this one, but that's only if its strengthens rapidly with all the high octane in the Carib.
I have a pic on the fridge like this when my daughter was 2 !
Thanks Burned. I need to have this embedded in my brain.
ROTFLMAO!
I thought this was the real cchs at first...then I realized there was no way cchs could be that crazy.
That can't be the REAL cchsweatherman. I noticed the extra "V" in the screen name.
Even though I won't be suffering through the Barbados NorEaster, I'll be stockpiling beer pretty heavily for the event.
Avoid quoting post that are obvious fakes,monomania and other.
WS,
What language is that?
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