Hurricane Felicia weakening; Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan
Hurricane Felicia is steadily weakening as it heads west-northwest over cooler waters. Recent satellite imagery shows that the eye is less distinct, and the tops of thunderstorms surrounding the eye are warming, indicating that the updrafts sustaining the eyewall are weakening. The storm appears rather ragged and lopsided, and probably is not as strong as the advertised Category 3 status.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia have now fallen below the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane, and will continue to decline as the storm tracks west-northwest over cooler waters. By Saturday morning, SSTs should fall to 24.5°C. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next three days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. On Sunday, Felicia will be encountering strong westerly winds aloft, which should create 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. This should be enough shear to tear the storm apart, thanks to its weakened condition due to the cool SSTs underneath it. By Monday night, when Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, most of the computer models predict Felicia will have dissipated. One exception is the GFDL model, which predicts Felicia could be a tropical depression with 35 mph winds when it passes just south of the Big Island on Monday night. In general, the models have been trending more south with their recent runs, so it currently appears that the Big Island is most likely to feel the most impact from Felicia's rain and winds. While the current forecast calls for Felicia to have a minor impact on Hawaii, the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to be out in full force over the next two days to monitor the storm. The NOAA jet flies into Felicia today, and will drop a series of dropsondes that will gather data to be fed into tonight's 00Z computer model runs. Regular low-level flights by the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to begin Saturday afternoon.
Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan
Typhoon Morakot has moved ashore over northern Taiwan this morning, and is battering the island as a strong Category 1 storm with 95 mph winds. At 9:30 pm local time today, the Taipei airport recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, and a pressure of 972 mb. Morakot is expected to weaken today as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of the island. Storm chaser James Reynolds is intercepting the storm and will be posting live updates on his typhoonfury.com web site and twitter for those who want to follow the storm. Morakot is also visible on Taiwan radar.
Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Morakot as it made landfall over northern Taiwan at 21:30 local time on 8/7/09. At the time, Taipei was experiencing sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.
The Atlantic is quiet
There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.
I'll have an update on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 — Blog Index
Doesn't mean "I" wouldn't be nervous...
Also, it doesn't mean that the intensity at landfall "couldn't" be wrong - either way. I think that the experts, of which I am NOT, have tracks down pretty good most of the time. intensity seems to still dog them.
I hope Felicia falls apart prior to landfall... I don't like to see loss of life or property.
00Z GFS not out yet to determine that.
Sea surface temperatures arent going to change though.
The sea surface temps aren't going to change much from in on out. In fact they warm slightly as one goes west toward the Big Island. Shear is what is gonna determine what happens with this system. If the shear isn't as strong as forecast, the system will be stronger than forecast when it reaches the Big Island.
They are going to be marginal nonetheless. I don't foresee anything stronger than a tropical storm here. There is nothing to suggest anything more than that.
where are you getting that from? SSTs get cooler as you get closer to the eastern side of the big island. If you look on the visible you can clearly see the cirrus clouds to the west of the storm, indicative of cooler waters
I'd say it could be Ana finally but that would be the second time this week ive said that.
Ive seen too many disturbances that had the potential to be Ana this year...Im just gonna watch it and see what happens.
So if Felicia turns on her windshear wipers - lookout... If not, then everything should be fine.
28 is warmer than 25, but no map tells me that the waters are warmer
If you are going by the floater on Felicia, it is messed up
I do have to say though its the most impressive one I've seen all year so close to the coast.
I see very interesting
and I'm saying yes
I'm gonna say that will be ANA in 7 days
It certainly does.
Here is a good link to follow if you want to monitor the wave:
Link
Looks like it has a potent circulation and some impressive convection. Could get interesting if this one has the desire to develop.
Well they're marginal now and we have a 105mph hurricane. So as I said, shear will be the biggest factor. I don't disagree with you that it won't be anything greater than a tropical storm...but it could be a stronger tropical storm than forecast (the forecast has it approaching with winds around 40mph), if the shear is under forecast.
Yea for those of you using the SSD floater for Felicia, those SSTs are messed up, it did the same thing for Carlos as well.
where do you guys get that sat from can you send me a link thanks
It does look pretty nice. It does have some very nice convergence and divergence along with a possible MLC. It should be interesting to watch.
I'll do one better , I'll say in 8 days LOL.
very few of them have had circulations like this one though
No, they get warmer, even the NHC has said this. Look at the Felicia interactive map. The waters warm.
Link
and I am saying yes yes yes yes it is about time
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009
FELICIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH A SHRINKING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A LESS DISTINCT EYE ON SATELLITE PICTURES. THERE IS ALSO SOME
SUGGESTION ON NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE
BECOMING SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A BLEND
OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB/TAFB GIVE AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. STEADY WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COOL WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WATER TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY RISE...BUT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
RESPOND TO THESE CHANGES A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWING FELICIA WEAKENING FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...GENERALLY
A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS FELICIA WEAKENING TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII.
I wouldnt jump the gun....lets just see how this does by this time tomorrow night. Ive seen people say that an invest is likely with other waves about ten times this year and every single one was wrong.
Captain Morgan with whiskey sour mix......LOL
so should we call this one pre-Invest 99L
Typical August wave
Viewing: 601 - 651
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 — Blog Index