Hurricane Felicia hits Category 3; may affect Hawaii next week
As is often the case in an El Niño year, there's nothing to talk about today in the Atlantic, but the Eastern Pacific is very active. It has been 17 years since we went this long without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic--the hurricane season of 1992 didn't start until August 16--but in the Eastern Pacific, we've already had six named storms this year. Hurricane Felicia is the latest addition, and Felicia has put on an impressive burst of intensification this morning by powering up to Category 3 status with 115 mph winds. Recent satellite loops show that Felicia has continued to intensify, with the cloud tops surrounding the eye cooling as they push higher into the troposphere.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.
While Felicia is an impressive hurricane now, its days of glory will be short-lived. Felicia is currently passing over a region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C, a full 2.5°C above the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane. These warm waters also extend to great depth, as seen on the Ocean Heat Content image (Figure 2). Felicia's west-northwest track will take the storm into a region of cooler waters with lower Oceanic Heat Content beginning tonight, which should induce a steady weakening trend beginning Thursday night. By Friday morning, SSTs should fall to 26°C, and decline to 25°C by Saturday. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next five days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. By Monday, when most of the computer models indicate that Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the storm will be at tropical depression strength with top winds of about 35 mph, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. Exactly how close Felicia will get to the Hawaiian Islands is a bit tricky to call right now, since the hurricane is interacting with nearby Tropical Storm Enrique. Whenever two storms get within 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate around a common center in a dance called the Fujiwhara Effect. This sort of storm-storm interaction is a complicated affair not well-handled by the computer forecast models.
Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (also called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) along the forecast path of Hurricane Felicia. The initial time of the forecast is 06 UTC (1 am EDT) on August 5, 2009. Oceanic heat content of 90 kJ per square cm is often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Felicia is currently over waters with high heat content, but the heat content will steadily decrease over the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.
I'll have an update on Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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very interesting
Link
The wave is starting to travel under and feel the effects of the ridge of high pressure. See post 1312.
Thanks for the post. But if I read this right El Nino won't really start to strengthen until AFTER this season is almost over, Oct/Nov time frame. But I guess it's strong enough now to help inhibit storms.
So maybe they know something we don't or they might see something. But there are alot of really smart people on here and they have looked at everything that's going on and it looks like hurricane season looks like a dud. I'm not saying there's not gonna be a cane but it sounds like it's gonna be really hard for one to form. But i am no pro i just read what everyone writes on here.
Sheri
Are the thunderstorms?
How do we know? (1334?)
I noticed that. Shees...if persistance alone determined a storm, this one would get a name! It sure seems to hang on. Terrible structure...but yet it survives.
Good morning everyone!!!
I'm still hoping for a zero impact storm season this year.
If it gets under favorable conditions, since it has persisted all this time, it may stand a chance after all.
??????
Link
3.0mg VALIUM! stat
RE:1356 http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/09jan_electrichurricanes.htm
CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...FELICIA
IS DEMONSTRATING SOME ANNULAR HURRICANE CHARACTERISTICS...AND WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WHICH COULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN
IT NORMALLY WOULD OVER MARGINAL SSTS. FOR THESE REASONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSTS RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
PROCESS. IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FELICIA
WILL BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR DISSIPATED...BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST.
Link
Stormtop, is that you?
And last time I checked, blueberries were not by prescription nor are they administered in 30mg doses.
That makes sense.
Thanks.
OZ, You can borrow my boat to keep expenses down :) ooops everyone left --- new blog
NWS RADAR
Even starting to have rotation in it.
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/06/09 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
Thanks Skye
Backlinking, I see the data is from ground-based RF (VLF band) sensors. It does give an idea of lightning (or lack thereof) in those waves & tropical systems.
Oh, Duh! NEW BLOG
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