Hurricane Felicia hits Category 3; may affect Hawaii next week
As is often the case in an El Niño year, there's nothing to talk about today in the Atlantic, but the Eastern Pacific is very active. It has been 17 years since we went this long without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic--the hurricane season of 1992 didn't start until August 16--but in the Eastern Pacific, we've already had six named storms this year. Hurricane Felicia is the latest addition, and Felicia has put on an impressive burst of intensification this morning by powering up to Category 3 status with 115 mph winds. Recent satellite loops show that Felicia has continued to intensify, with the cloud tops surrounding the eye cooling as they push higher into the troposphere.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.
While Felicia is an impressive hurricane now, its days of glory will be short-lived. Felicia is currently passing over a region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C, a full 2.5°C above the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane. These warm waters also extend to great depth, as seen on the Ocean Heat Content image (Figure 2). Felicia's west-northwest track will take the storm into a region of cooler waters with lower Oceanic Heat Content beginning tonight, which should induce a steady weakening trend beginning Thursday night. By Friday morning, SSTs should fall to 26°C, and decline to 25°C by Saturday. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next five days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. By Monday, when most of the computer models indicate that Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the storm will be at tropical depression strength with top winds of about 35 mph, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. Exactly how close Felicia will get to the Hawaiian Islands is a bit tricky to call right now, since the hurricane is interacting with nearby Tropical Storm Enrique. Whenever two storms get within 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate around a common center in a dance called the Fujiwhara Effect. This sort of storm-storm interaction is a complicated affair not well-handled by the computer forecast models.
Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (also called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) along the forecast path of Hurricane Felicia. The initial time of the forecast is 06 UTC (1 am EDT) on August 5, 2009. Oceanic heat content of 90 kJ per square cm is often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Felicia is currently over waters with high heat content, but the heat content will steadily decrease over the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.
I'll have an update on Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 — Blog Index
hmmm
I do not see any dry air infiltrating in.
Yeah. As long as it is firing convection and spinning it has a chance.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2009 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 14:12:00 N Lon : 129:05:51 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 951.0mb/115.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.5 6.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : -4.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
FELICIA CAT4 MAJOR HURRICANE
I should have been more precise...just the shear to the south is prohibiting a more symetrical apperance as of yet.
That is correct.
I am not sure I agree with that but in the long run it does not matter. My thinking yesterday, which I posted in the late afternoon, was that the circulation we saw down around 8N and further W had essentially outrun the 850 mb vorticity that developed yesterday. I also stated that I thought there was a possibility of redevelopment further to the N and E where the 850 mb circulation had established itself. You may recall that the only vorticity we saw prior to that was at the 500 mb level.
But, as I said above , it does not matter whether what we see now comes from two different sources or one source that split and reformed. In the end, we are where we are.
au contraire... convection has been consistent all day long.. it has and is still continuinig to fire new convection... this is indicative of the nearby low.
i'm not saying it will form into anything.. just stating Facts, as some like to say.
Could this be the beginning of shear lowering?
We're getting it here in N Ft Myers, too! Rumbling and flashing away! Pretty impressive...the UPS's are singing!
future....seems like it is shielding itself from the dry air.
Yes, it is; the southerly shear is also helping it do that. However, it is preventing convection to persist over the center.
What do you think would happen if we got convection over the center? Good shot for development, and further tightening of the COC?
Thanks, because I noticed it last night.
This Link is on the right side of this page-->
How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links
I see it too, NAM picked up on it a few days ago
For the short term and as of late...it does appear to be holding its own...We will see how it is managing in 24-48 hours.
Yes...perhaps. If it does the develop, it would remain as a result of SAL just ahead of it.
Pat, I think he is referring to all the charts and images that are posted with no explanation as to what they are or what they mean. There is a lot of that on here. Just stuff posted for the sake of posting.
TSENRIQUE.50kts-999mb-174N-1236W
TSMORAKOT.60kts-987mb-230N-1309E
If Felecia was coming from the south... there would be more a chance of it being a cane when it gets closer to Hawaii.
That is what I was thinking. I posted that above as well.
the shear is due to the ULL itself, if it works its way to the surface, most of that shear would go away
Yes thinks youre right next NHC report CAT4 for sure
I still am skeptical
Viewing: 301 - 351
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 — Blog Index