Hurricane Felicia hits Category 3; may affect Hawaii next week
As is often the case in an El Niño year, there's nothing to talk about today in the Atlantic, but the Eastern Pacific is very active. It has been 17 years since we went this long without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic--the hurricane season of 1992 didn't start until August 16--but in the Eastern Pacific, we've already had six named storms this year. Hurricane Felicia is the latest addition, and Felicia has put on an impressive burst of intensification this morning by powering up to Category 3 status with 115 mph winds. Recent satellite loops show that Felicia has continued to intensify, with the cloud tops surrounding the eye cooling as they push higher into the troposphere.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.
While Felicia is an impressive hurricane now, its days of glory will be short-lived. Felicia is currently passing over a region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C, a full 2.5°C above the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane. These warm waters also extend to great depth, as seen on the Ocean Heat Content image (Figure 2). Felicia's west-northwest track will take the storm into a region of cooler waters with lower Oceanic Heat Content beginning tonight, which should induce a steady weakening trend beginning Thursday night. By Friday morning, SSTs should fall to 26°C, and decline to 25°C by Saturday. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next five days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. By Monday, when most of the computer models indicate that Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the storm will be at tropical depression strength with top winds of about 35 mph, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. Exactly how close Felicia will get to the Hawaiian Islands is a bit tricky to call right now, since the hurricane is interacting with nearby Tropical Storm Enrique. Whenever two storms get within 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate around a common center in a dance called the Fujiwhara Effect. This sort of storm-storm interaction is a complicated affair not well-handled by the computer forecast models.
Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (also called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) along the forecast path of Hurricane Felicia. The initial time of the forecast is 06 UTC (1 am EDT) on August 5, 2009. Oceanic heat content of 90 kJ per square cm is often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Felicia is currently over waters with high heat content, but the heat content will steadily decrease over the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.
I'll have an update on Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I was about to ask this...
thats what i thought.
It is all long range model forecasting. Of course it is going to forecast a major shift to favorable conditions. that is happened many times this year. Until the Highs shift postions or so signs of moving, there is proof shear levels really are reducing I have a hard time buying those waves are going to do anything different than the previous ones.
Despite a loss of central convection, there is still some very prominent cyclonic turning associated with the wave.
Shear actually looks to be dropping in the Caribbean. At least for now.
Current Conditions
Updated: 5 min 39 sec ago
82 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 81 °F
Wind: 20 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 44 mph
Pressure: 29.24 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 94 °F
Typhoon MORAKOT
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
2057 UTC
ws
Drag, click, copy....nice.
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis
1800 UTC
That would be "ignite".
Oh come on, you know what I mean.
The Real Deal? Ana?
Yep. Looks like we may have something to watch...again
Hopefully. Please God let this develop and be over with lol
LOL...and the same 2 models showing it.
I wish the ECMWF would jump on board.
LMAO!
I agree...I'm so sick of this name. This has been going on for months.
Thats because mets don't fully understand what an annular hurricane is and what makes it different from any other hurricane, besides sometimes visual characteristics.
I don't know how to attach it but this is a magnificent slide show of the US
That's a good question. Best guesstimate...4 or 5?
Just watch and wait.
I can't keep track
Next one we will be hearing is Bob.
i wish you would explain it then.
Spreading slightly further north on the 8-14 day outlook....
Not much is left once it hits those fast westerlies blowing across the eastern caribbean.
So according to the GFS we are on the Greek alphabet now. LOL!
The GFS keeps flip flopping on it's shear for the Caribbean. Can't tell what it's going to be like that far out.
Nah, they will be 10kts or less before it reaches there. Finally, a storm with no major detriment burden in its path. SAL and shear should be favorable.
90L
92L
93L
97L
countless caribbean disturbances
our most recent CATL wave
Fixing too. Wife made chicken and dumplings....she's a good cook....
I'm sorry maybe I was misunderstood...
I meant that Annular hurricanes were confusing to learn about because not much is known about it...
Must have been poor wording, my bad.. XD
When i see it i'll believe it,thus far this season the caribbean has been very hostile which is a pretty typical signature of el nino.
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