Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 — Blog Index
Navy site has it as a 40mph storm
Flip a coin.
It's mentioned twice in the video (neighborhood under a mandatory evacutation.) Not enough, huh?
L??? We should be at E on the East Pacific, why L? Seems like Invests aren't the only ones getting mixed up lol.
No cuz it is in the Central Pacific now so it gets that name
No mix up
Everyone in a hurricane prone area should keep their eyes "peeled out".
I-phoners, check this out. oh-great-hackers-can-take-over-your-iphone-with-a-text-message.
Firmware Update Breaks Hacked iPhones
StormW i seen what your saying but, is the low level steering really that bad. Guess it could cause the clouds to outrun any developing possible low....HUM
I think the dry environment is the biggest obstacle currently....lets give it 24hrs.
Thats the reason i'm an amuature and your the professional......i just don't see that...thanks.
El Nino...spanish for..."The Nino".
- Chris Farley
Enough with the fakes Jason.
Genuine NHC outlooks
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
No, on second thought I think you did fine. Too much emphasis on not evacuating would just be confusing. I'd just shorten it where possible to try and get it down to 60 or (gulp) 30 seconds (maybe different versions). It's quite dramatic, which is exactly what you want for that kind of message. Get people's attention, keep it, and make 'em remember it.
It seems for the first half of August. The GEFS mean plot are expecting the trough to lift during the latter part of August.
More images:
He must be doing that for attention. I have him on ignore or I would report him. He needs a permanent banning from WU.
But he is cool, man!
Honestly though... he is a good example of why there is an ignore list. I just hope people don't take his fake outlooks/forecasts at face value, especially with a potentially damaging storm.
I hope that pattern continues. I'll have an early end to the tropical season.
I didn't mean my comment to sound negative at you...i simply mean i didn't understand that until you pointed it out.....LOL
lol, somebody isn't awake.
06E has become a Central Pacific Storm, which means instead of an East pacific name, it gets a CPac name.
Oh to answer your question....Quikscat...is what i look at..
Table of contents, July 1891 MWR.
Had a blonde moment going.....LOL..oops i shouldn't say that...
Do not know where in Ja u are going, but please be critically aware that even heavy rainfall can bring considerable attendant risks, to parts of Ja, of Flash Floods etc - some of which have tragic consequences - it has already happened this year. Parts of Ja have experienced heavy rainfalls in recent past so any future additional heavy rain could pose problems.
Have a safe and successful trip.
No problem!
Amazing the similarities between July 1891 and July 2009.
It raining in Trinidad,we've crossed the 300mm mark for the first time in months.
The itcz thinks we're a toilet bowl.
I don't really know WS...I don't really know. The last of the GEFS forecast shows the trough weakening somewhat, and shows the A/B high ridging in near the east coast. The problem with this is that the forecast is too far away, which makes such an outcome improbable, and we do not if the trough will further weaken.
More images:
288hrs
360hrs
1 in July, the 2nd storm formed on August 17th
There were 4 US Landfalls
#1 in Texas
#3, #7 and #8 in Florida (#3 was a major in Florida and weakened quickly, other 2 were TS)
#9 hit the Lesser Antilles and Leewards
Chech the swimsuit addition of SI.
I actually did the 5 minute length on purpose, too. That length of time makes the video somewhat tedious...and demonstrates how relentless a hurricane experience is. Literally, hour after hour of terrible winds will drive you crazy...and I wanted a bit of that "crazy" feel to the video.
That's why it's so long...I made it purposefully uncomfortable to watch.
Yes, but the TUTT should be in the Caribbean by that time. So, it would be weak if it managed to recurve toward the SE U.S.
Viewing: 1151 - 1201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 — Blog Index