97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 — Blog Index
Yeh it will be reclassified at 12Z. Don't be surprised if the winds are increased to at least 30kts.
Oh he is good now, we had a rough night tho :/
lol ok. it's sunny over here for now... waiting to see what 97L has to offer.
Where are you located?
you got a point
WHXX04 KWBC 200523
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L
INITIAL TIME 0Z JUL 20
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 12.1 54.2 280./17.1
6 11.2 56.6 250./25.8
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
No LOL.. I wish. Julian had an upset stomach, just put it at that..LOL.
Ugh, your so lucky. You get to live in paradise everyday...
Thanks Storm, me too.
Im doing fabulous, how about yourself :)
lol .... ever been to St. Lucia before?
Sadly no, I havent been out of the country yet. Something on my to do list in life. But I hear its beautiful.
Quite the model run. 97L last seen moving SW at 26 knots!
0 12.1 54.2 280./17.1
6 11.2 56.6 250./25.8
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Julie
Barbados should get some heavy wind and rains shortly.
The leading edge of the heavy convection is a few hours away from the rest of the islands.
Nope.
Shows nothing through the rest of July...tropically.
Yeah, I was looking at that also. A lot of moisture in that area.
Ike, so far your prediction for the season is coming true..lol.
Shear is having fun with 97
Ok. try a Caribbean cruise. You'll love it.
It'll ramp up in August. Mid-August through mid-October is when the action is...
I plan on it, thanks.
97L is not in an environment conducive to tropical development because the shear is just too high. You can expect rain, some gusty winds, but nothing tropical force IMHO.
lol
Thanks......I did not know if you Folks down there needed more rain or not....Hope it's not too bumpy for you however.
The present early Tracks go from as far as south of Cancun to missing Florida to the east... so basically... pick a spot.
I'm thinking missing Florida to the east as it will probably get snatched into the pooling energy over the Bahamas.
1st its gos poof
then it comes back then it gos poof so on so on so on
Link is broken
Viewing: 2251 - 2301
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 — Blog Index