97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Seems (generally) to be true that the older folk((myself included..lol) have said consistntly from the start of this on again off again invest, that it's something to keep a wary eye on.
couldn't agree anymore......
Yeh man .. we'll be the 1st two onboard
I see 20-30 knots of shear in the southern caribbean in that model too
I think it has the potential to, but it's a slim one, given its small size.
I think that it has the best chance to develop at around 75W in the next few days.
What....no love for those who provide common sense input? There's plenty of room for both.
This is also climatologically possible, and Edouard last year formed from a similar situation at a similar time of year.
You did not get banned for fighting, LoL
No kidding, there is a huge amount of talent here and it should not be stifled by disagreement.
Just my take.
Edit, I asked about the sloppy trough earlier in the GOM. Looks familiar to me.
I been watching it!
I agree...and also your own input this year has been a good addition.
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Ike, I agree...Looks pretty ragged right now and it won't survive shear looking like that. It is going to have to really take advantage of diurnal cooling if it is going to make it through any significant shear.
Please enough with the wrf model
latest 901 pm edt wv image enhanced
I have been wanting to say how adorable I think your son is. I have a 2 year old son as well. Arent they just so much fun? (and work lol)
structure of the system still looks good, just an hour ago the NHC said it "continued to get better organized", so lets go with that for now.
Thanks Storm, I missed this post.
I should have known you would notice it before me, Storm. :P
Yep and than "omg its a td" tomorrow morning
Your son is adorable, SJ. :)
Yes.
BREAKING NEWS: It's raining at my house as cloud tops are cooling.
Rain and 76.3 outside my window as I type.
LOL! I miss Julian being that small. Well at least your son is attempting daddy. Julian calls his daddy by his name! LOL. Something he picked up on his own from hearing everyone call him by his name instead of daddy.
perhaps some ground swell - I like
'dem TS's not 'canes ..but a little TS would make me happy
I agree, the structure is much improved over yesterday and it did manage to keep at least some convection for most of the day. All up to the night time cooling now.Also looks like it might be starting to feel the shear a little more.
It looks impressive now, and I really don't remember a time as such.
lol!!!
No rains for me today in central Trinidad, but some heavy showers, for long periods, along the north of the island, and heavy rains in Tobago, Grenada, St.Vincent.
The system looks pretty unhealthy now, at d-min, will it pull itself back together tonight?
I have my doubts, now.
Microwave pass that is under 2 hours old.
Viewing: 1601 - 1651
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