97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Anyone for Beef Wellington?
lol yea. I'm pretty sure Wikipedia has that stored.
Wow!
interesting ...
Pressure dropped another millibar
Awesome... hey at least it has the fighting spirit...
Give 'em a break!
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT.
I like him too. He's been mainly noticeably absent this season. Most of the TWO's have been issued by a bunch of scrubeeneey's. Maybe his return signals something is up.
They also changed the system from shallow to medium.
Basically, they are. It's not much more than a coin flip as to what will happen 48+ hours down the road.
I though it was going to stay shallow enough to avoid the full brunt of the shear.
Not having one of their best years I reckon. By now the total count should be 2 tropical storms so far for the season. Maybe you should apply for a job there or we should establish our own Eastern Caribbean Hurricane Center. What you think?
Can you link me to the site please
Great vid. You would think if you had time to get there, sunbathers would had had time to leave before the blow. That was one NASTY storm.
p.s. Thanks for the bikini shots :)
heck, sometimes I lay a night thinking of a Caribbean NWS, establising better weather observing networks, warning systems, etc, across the region. Maybe one day, the resources will show up to start one.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook (10:00 AM HST 19JUL)
==============================================
A surface trough more than 500 miles south-southwest of the Big Island of Hawaii has been moving west near 15 mph. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system have weakened over the past six hours.
Tropical cyclone development in the area is unlikely over the next 48 hours.
Where's Avila?
Link
Not on duty at that time. Rhome is the one in the red.
seems most cant stay consistent
although I think Drak is playing Devils' advocate more than anything lol
or else you wouldnt be so disappointed
I think I got one somewhere around here for when Fay passed away... where is it!!!
can you link me to that site
"
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS."
Changed from:
"UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT."
Those mean the EXACT SAME THING. When someone says "over the next 24 to 48 hours", that means that something will be changing within 24 hours. Aka... possibly tonight.
edit: I see Beell beat me to it.
18 GMT 07/19/09 12.2N 52.5W 25 1012 Invest
00 GMT 07/20/09 12.5N 53.8W 25 1011 Invest
Link
thanks
WHXX01 KWBC 200026
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0026 UTC MON JUL 20 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090720 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090720 0000 090720 1200 090721 0000 090721 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 53.8W 13.4N 57.5W 14.7N 61.1W 16.2N 65.1W
BAMD 12.5N 53.8W 12.9N 56.1W 13.5N 58.4W 14.0N 61.0W
BAMM 12.5N 53.8W 13.1N 56.7W 14.0N 59.6W 14.8N 62.8W
LBAR 12.5N 53.8W 13.2N 57.0W 14.3N 60.4W 15.5N 63.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090722 0000 090723 0000 090724 0000 090725 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 68.7W 21.4N 75.6W 24.5N 79.5W 26.8N 80.6W
BAMD 14.6N 64.1W 15.7N 71.2W 16.3N 78.3W 15.9N 85.3W
BAMM 15.9N 66.3W 18.2N 73.6W 20.2N 79.7W 21.5N 84.3W
LBAR 16.9N 67.5W 20.2N 73.8W 22.8N 77.0W 25.6N 75.9W
SHIP 36KTS 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS
DSHP 36KTS 40KTS 43KTS 47KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 53.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 50.3W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 46.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message from here
Well. there are two of us anyway...
Conditions are not conductive for a TD, but it may come close tonight before it hits the 20-30 knots of wind shear.
Viewing: 1551 - 1601
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