97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Not too much in the way of rain yet here but its coming.
I dont think Ana...Maybe an orange, or dare I say red circle later on tonight to 8am tomorrow.
Sure is Dmin
All the high-def radars are down in S Fla..
meaning the NHC may reconsider their thinking, we will see.
I find the GFS the most reliable when it comes to forecasting shear, albeit it has its weaknesses.
UMMM? Sorry that one went over my head? Just tried to lighten things up. I'll go back to my lurk.
There was a Wind Gust to 70MPH at the Fort Pierce Airport.
Talkin about the tree roots coming up above the ground level cause the soil around here has been subsiding-sorry.
No DMAX, will help generate more thunderstorms, creating a more predominant CDO, so that a sufficiently closed center may start to establish.
Hm pretty impressive.
I agree with this.
Or the 00z BAMM
The storms seem to be worst up north, but I have never seen winds that strong since Fay.
The wind has been really bad here too the last half hour; its starting to subside but still gusts in the 30-40 mph range for sure.
I'll try and post some pics later showing the encroaching outflow boundary.
Gotta love south Florida weather!
every year in June, I start with a clean slate.. just in 24 hours already have been reminded why I put some of these bloggers on there last year and again this year...even when they change their handles..
It predicts very favorable shear
Even better.
00z BAMs will use 18z GFS for data.
TW action xD
Ooooh! Okay. Just call me Stu. Lol. I thought you meant the joke I laughed at wasn't your idea. My bad. And yes the soil subsiding is bad. All joking aside the tree roots lifting up to the surface is a bad thing this time of year. Rita took full advantage of that in 2005. Hopefully some of this rain will make it over your way. Not the severe stuff. Just the rain.
Drak, I must not be seing what you're talking about here. To me it looked like the trough was oriented swest to neast and looks to lifting quite good. Meridionally - if you mean over the cCaribbean, I see that, but that's the tail of it and several 100 miles west yet and becoming more dispersed. Please, explain further. Thanks.
either that or everyone left to eat dinner LOL
Meridional orientation just means it's elongated from north to south is some direction, opposite of zonal. The trough itself it titled.
MLC , I agree with you 100%.
I'm not talking about now I'm talking 12-16 hours from now.
True on the roots-can you imagine if we got a bunch of rain and wind together? The trees would just tip right over. Think I'll go take a good look at my chainsaw-forgot to add this to the storm-prep list!
you mean there is a carolina there too??
nervously says oh dear wheres press?
Must be dinner. I don't see shear impactiny anything yet with 97L. Windfield seems to be expanding, more convective bursts and generally better orgnized in general.
Just noticed that "blob" on the satellite.
Viewing: 1051 - 1101
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