How much will global sea level rise this century?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT en Julio 13, 2009

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How much will global sea level rise this century? Well, global sea level rise began in the late 1700s, and accelerated to 1.2 inches (3 cm) per decade over the past 25 years (see my post, Sea level rise: what has happened so far). If the conditions that led to this acceleration continue, we can expect sea level will rise an additional 1.1 ft (0.34 m) by 2100 (Jevrejeva et al., 2008). At a minimum, sea level rise during the 21st century should equal that of the 20th century, about seven inches (0.6 ft, 0.18 meters). This is the lower bound given by the IPCC in its 2007 assessment, which projected sea level rise of 0.6 - 1.9 ft (0.18 - 0.59 m) by 2100. However, they cautioned in their report that due to the lack of knowledge about how melting glaciers behave, the actual sea level rise might be higher. There is a growing consensus that the 2007 IPCC sea level rise estimates are much too low.


Figure 1. Observed global sea level from tide gauges (red line, pink color is the uncertainty range) and satellite measurements (green line), with forecasts for the future. The blue colors show the range of projections for three different forecasts (the forecasts overlap, but this overlap is not shown). Image modified from U.S. EPA.

The 2007 IPCC report: too conservative?
Three major sea level rise studies published since the 2007 IPCC report have argued that the IPCC's projections of sea level rise are too conservative. A paper published in 2008 in Science by Pfeffer et al. (2008) concluded that the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 ft (0.8 - 2.0 meters). Their estimates came from a detailed analysis of the processes the IPCC said were understood too poorly to model--the ice flow dynamics of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. For example, increased glacial flow may result when water draining from melt water lakes on the surface of the glacier to the base of the glacier, where it acts as a lubricant. The authors cautioned that "substantial uncertainties" exist in their estimates, and that the cost of building higher levees to protect against sea level rise is not trivial.

Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany looked at the observed relationship between changes in sea level and global temperatures since 1900 (Rahmstorf, 2007). Rahmstorf showed that that there has been a direct relationship between sea level rise and global average temperature: 0.1 - 0.3 meters of sea level rise occurs per °C increase in global temperature. Using this relationship, Rahmstorf predicted 1.6 - 4.6 ft (0.5 - 1.4 m) of sea level rise by 2100, since the IPCC predicts that global temperatures will rise 1.4° to 5.8°C. Rahmstorf concluded, "very low sea-level rise values as reported in the 2007 IPCC report now appear rather implausible in the light of the observational data".

A similar approach was taken by Grinsted et al. (2009), but they extended the relationship between sea level and global average temperature all the way back to 200 A.D. using proxy records. They concluded that ice sheets respond more quickly to temperature changes than the computer models used in the 2007 IPCC assessment. The authors estimated that "IPCC projections of sea level rise 2090 - 2099 are underestimated by roughly a factor of three". The authors predicted that global sea level will be rising 11 mm/year by 2050--four times faster than the 20th century rise. By the last decade of this century, they forecasted that sea level will rise 3.0 - 4.3 feet (0.9 - 1.3 meters), using the IPCC's A1B "business as usual" scenario.

The long-range forecast: using paleohistory to forecast sea level rise
We can also look at times in Earth's past that had similar climate to what we expect by the year 2100. The best time to look at is probably just before the most recent ice age--the Eemian. This interglacial period 130,000 - 114,000 years ago featured temperatures near the poles that were 2°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Tree line lay about 500 miles farther north in the Canadian Arctic, and the hippopotamus ranged as far north as the Thames River in England. A similar climate is expected under some of the more moderate global warming scenarios envisioned by the IPCC. Sea level is believed to have been 4 - 6 meters (13 - 20 feet) higher than at present during the Eemian, but there is at least one unpublished study that presents evidence that global sea level was 6 - 9 meters (20 - 30 feet) higher. If the climate does warm to levels seen in the Eemian, it is widely believed that we would again see sea levels at least 4 - 6 meters higher than the present-day levels. Clearly, sea level rises of this magnitude would be ruinous to society. However, most climate change scientists believe that it would take many centuries for enough ice to melt from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to create sea level rises of 4 - 6 meters.

However, the scientist who is arguably the most visible and authoritative climate scientist in the world, Dr. James Hansen of NASA, stated (Hansen, 2007) "I find it almost inconceivable that business-as-usual climate change would not yield a sea level change of the order of meters on the century timescale" (IPCC business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios assume that emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases will continue to increase year after year). Hansen gave a hypothetical but potentially realistic scenario where the sea level rise due to ice sheet disintegration doubles every decade, leading to a 16 foot (5 meter) sea level increase by 2100. He noted that during the Plio-Pleistocene period 2 - 3 million years ago, CO2 levels were similar to today (350 - 450 ppm), and global temperatures were 2 - 3°C warmer, similar to what we expect by the end of the century. Yet, this Plio-Pleistocene world was "a dramatically different planet, without Arctic sea ice in the warm seasons and with a sea level 25 ± 10 m higher."

Summary
To summarize, here are some predictions of how high global sea level might rise by 2100:

0.6 ft (0.18 m): Constant linear rise, equal to 20th century rise
1.1 ft (0.34 m): Constant acceleration model (Jevrejeva et al., 2008)
0.6 - 1.9 ft (0.18 - 0.59 m): Primitive models of ice sheets (IPCC, 2007)
1.6 - 4.6 ft (0.5 - 1.4 m): Relationship between temperature and sea level rise since 1900 (Rahmstorf, 2007)
3.0 - 4.3 feet (0.9 - 1.3 m): Relationship between temperature and sea level rise since 200 A.D. (Grinsted et al., 2009)
2.6 - 6.6 ft (0.8 - 2.0 meters): Considering glacier ice flow dynamics not included by the IPCC (Pfeffer et al., 2008)

In a 2009 interview with New Scientist magazine, sea level expert Stephan Rahmstorf said, "I sense that now a majority of sea level experts would agree with me that the IPCC projections are much too low." This sentiment was echoed by glaciologist Robert Bindschadler of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, who commented, "most of my community is comfortable expecting at least a metre by the end of this century."

In forthcoming posts in this series, I'll explore how a meter (3.28 feet) of sea level rise will affect the U.S. coast, the Caribbean, and other vulnerable locations world-wide. It would be wise to begin preparing now for a potential rise in sea level of a meter this century. In particular, development near the coasts should be severely restricted in low-elevation zones. It will be very expensive to protect or move infrastructure away from rising seas later this century. However, even if the rate of sea level rise doubles every decade, those of us who are over the age of 50 will not live to see sea level rise cause a significant disruption to society. There is time for society to prepare for the rising sea.

References
Jevrejeva, S., J.C. Moore, A. Grinsted,, and P.L. Woodworth, 2008, "Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?", Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L08715, doi:10.1029/2008GL033611, 2008.

Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, "Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD", Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, 06 January 2009.

Hansen, J., 2007, "Scientific reticence and sea level rise",, Environ. Res. Lett. 2 (April-June 2007) 024002 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, 996 pp.

Pfeffer, W.T., J.T. Harper, and S. O'Neel, 2008, "Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise", Science 321 no. 5894, pp. 1340-1343, 5 September 2008. DOI: 10.1126/science.1159099

Rahmstorf, Stefan. "Sea-Level Rise: A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future." Science 315 (2007): 368–370.

Other posts in this series
Sea level rise: what has happened so far
U.S. vulnerability to sea level rise

Wednesday, I'll take a look at the Atlantic hurricane forecast for the remainder of July. There's currently nothing out there worth discussing--will it stay that way?

Dr. Ricky Rood has some interesting commentary on the new climate change legislation that passed the House last month, and will go to the Senate in September.

Jeff Masters

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2385. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TSUNAMI WARNING NUMBER 1 FOR LORD HOWE ISLAND
Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre [JATWC] at 08:05 PM EST
on Wednesday 15 July 2009

********************************************************************************

TSUNAMI THREAT TO LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS AND THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT

********************************************************************************
SUMMARY:

Tsunami warning for LORD HOWE ISLAND.

An undersea earthquake of magnitude 7.9 [Latitude 45.960S Longitude 166.470E ]
has occurred at 07:22 PM EST on Wednesday 15 July 2009 off W. COAST OF S.
ISLAND, N.Z.

For low-lying coastal areas there is a threat of MAJOR LAND INUNDATION,
FLOODING, DANGEROUS WAVES AND STRONG OCEAN CURRENTS for several hours from
09:30 pm [EST] Wednesday.

People in affected areas are strongly advised by the LORD HOWE ISLAND POLICE to
go to higher ground or at least one kilometre inland.

For all threatened areas, people are advised to get out of the water and move
away from the immediate water’s edge.
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Crown Weather

I am closely monitoring the eastern Atlantic, which is dotted by three separate tropical disturbances. One near 40 West Longitude, the second near 27 West Longitude and a third near 18 West Longitude. It appears, based on satellite imagery, that the two disturbances behind the first are moving quicker and I would suspect in the next couple of days that all three of these disturbances will try to congeal into one identifiable tropical disturbance and this seems to be what the GFS model has been trying to say all along.

A quikscat satellite pass shows that there is no low level circulation with any of the disturbances and that all of the cyclonic turning is in the mid-levels. As for possible development, I think at the very most, slow development seems to be the way to go. There is dry, stable air to the north of this 3 pronged system, however, environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development for at least the next few days as a upper level high pressure system builds over this area and then moves in tandem with this system.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Let's hope there isn't a tsunami...
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
the MSLP across the catl and eatl are stable at the moment which is an indication that development will be slow to occur.QS this morning showed no signs of any llc in any of these disturbances
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2721
2379. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING SUMMARY FOR AUSTRALIA NUMBER 1

Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at 08:31 PM EST

on Wednesday 15 July 2009


********************************************************************************

TSUNAMI SOURCE:


An undersea earthquake of magnitude 7.9 has occurred at 07:22 PM EST on

Wednesday 15 July 2009 at 45.960S , 166.470E near OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND,

N.Z..


Sea level observations have confirmed a tsunami has been generated.


********************************************************************************

NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING STATUS SUMMARY:


Victoria Marine Warning issued 1028Z Wed 15 Jul 2009

New South Wales Marine Warning issued 1024Z Wed 15 Jul 2009

Tasmania Marine Warning issued 1017Z Wed 15 Jul 2009

Lord Howe Island Land Warning issued 1005Z Wed 15 Jul 2009

National Watch Bulletin issued 0946Z Wed 15 Jul 2009


********************************************************************************

ADVICE:


People in areas with threat of land inundation and flooding are strongly

advised by emergency authorities to go to higher ground or at least one

kilometre inland.


In areas with a threat to the marine environment only, emergency authorities

advise people to get out of the water and move away from the immediate water’s

edge of harbours, coastal estuaries, rock platforms, and beaches.


Refer to individual State and Territory tsunami warnings and watches issued by

the JATWC for more detailed information.


Listen for any further advice from your local emergency service


Tsunami waves are more powerful than the same size beach waves, with the first

wave not necessarily being the largest.

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Good Morning;


Tropical Update

Atlantic broad area of low pressure

Northern Gulf Low
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
morning
this morning the tropical atlantichas three disturbances. at 40w 25w and 18w . none of these systems are showing any signs of development. the enviroment in the catl and the eatl is very dry and stable. this is the only inhibiting factor for cyclogenesis. shear is forecast to be low for the next few days, while the ssst are minimal for development. it appears from sat pics this morning that the waves east of the disturbance at 40w will catcch up,with it and form a one big disturbance. whether this will form into a cyclone down the road is very uncertain.none of the models are hinting of development which i suspect will be slow to occur as the complex system moves west even if this system does not develop before reaching the island chain it will bring unsettled weather to the islands by monday next week
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00z GFS
Member Since: Julio 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
352 am EDT Wednesday Jul 15 2009

Tuesday...time to look to the east!!! global models (gfs, ecmwf)
have been persistent in developing a rather healthy tropical wave
over the western Atlantic just off Africa. Previous run of both, GFS
and ECMWF, developed a cyclonic circulation with this system by the
time it reaches the southeastern Bahamas, then recurved it northward
around the periphery of the Atlantic ridge. However, latest runs
of these models push the system further westward and bring it
rather close to South Florida (too close for comfort) before
recurving. While this is still too far in the future and the
models are bound to change many times, it is not out of the realm
of possibilities as we enter the active portion of the Atlantic
hurricane season, and it bears watching.
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Civil Defence officials concerned by widely varying measurements of a big quake in Fiordland tonight said they were issuing a "potential tsunami" warning in Southland.

"We've had big differences in the measurements of the quake, ranging from 6.6 by GNS Science, to 8.2 by a tsunami warning centre in Hawaii - we're issuing a precautionary message," said an emergency management spokesman in Wellington.

People ran from restaurants in Queenstown as buildings shook, and lights and phone lines went down.

...Link
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1144 PM HST TUE JUL 14 2009

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI ADVISORY

A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE
AT 1143 PM HST.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1123 PM HST 14 JUL 2009
COORDINATES - 46.1 SOUTH 166.3 EAST
LOCATION - OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND N.Z.
MAGNITUDE - 7.8 MOMENT

EVALUATION

THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED A NON-EXPANDING
REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING FOR A PART OF THE PACIFIC NEAR THE
EARTHQUAKE. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THERE IS NO DESTRUCTIVE
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

HOWEVER... SOME COASTAL AREAS IN HAWAII COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL
NON-DESTRUCTIVE SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL CURRENTS
LASTING UP TO SEVERAL HOURS. THE ESTIMATED TIME SUCH EFFECTS
MIGHT BEGIN IS

1107 AM HST WED 15 JUL 2009
Member Since: Mayo 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
7.8 Earthquake hits New Zealand...
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
I found this interesting paper about DEBBIE a lot of months ago, but I have wanted to read it carefully before saying something. This one of the most interesting tropical cyclones ever developed in the Atlantic Basin. Its structure were very well organized before reaching open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, while it was yet well inland Africa. It only took 48 hours to reach hurricane strenght since it touch the sea. Moreover, it could reach Ireland keeping hurricane force & structure, before making an extratropical transition.

Here is an exceptional paper about it, in PDF: AN INCIPIENT HURRICANE NEAR THE WEST AFRICAN COAST
Link

I would like to know your thoughts about it. Thanks!
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CARLOS REMAINS A COMPACT ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE FEATURES OUTSIDE OF A NEARLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 10 NM EYE. RECENT INFRARED IMAGES...
HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS RING
HAVE WARMED...HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS SYMMETRIC...AND HAVE SHRUNK
IN SIZE. IN SPITE OF THIS...DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 FROM BOTH SAB
AND TAFB SUPPORT AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

Ooooh, Annular hurricane.

OF NOTE...WITH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT...CARLOS HAS BECOME THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR SOUTH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SINCE
RELIABLE DATA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.

Seems it's going to go on a weakening trend now, but considering how small it is, might come apart all together fairly quickly.

ADT's definitely showing a fast weakening trend.

Member Since: Agosto 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2369. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
15:00 PM JST July 15 2009
============================================

Subject: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 14.4N 127.8E has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north-northwest at 12 knots.
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New strong wave has come off :



Something in the air?
Member Since: Octubre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6440
Part of the PR NWS Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST WED JUL 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HAZE/DUST AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND LAST INTO FRIDAY. NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. A MORE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.


...

00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRUE MOIST TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE AND A
HEALTHY LOOKING WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY THAT JUST EXITED THE
AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS DONT DO MUCH WITH THIS WAVE AT
THIS POINT IN TERMS OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
MORE CLIMO NUMBERS FOR SAT AND NEXT WEEK SIGNALING A WETTER PATTERN
BUT CAP POPS AT 50% DUE TO LOCAL POLICY.
Member Since: Octubre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6440
Quoting melwerle:
Homesick 504.my whole famiiy is here.

I just hope my frog is okay and no one suffers. And no one gets banned.

oh..and whirled peas.






I can understand being homesick, been there done that. I hope everything works out in California though.
Member Since: Mayo 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
Homesick 504.my whole famiiy is here.

I just hope my frog is okay and no one suffers. And no one gets banned.

oh..and whirled peas.




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Quoting melwerle:

Just different. I have been here for a few days - lived here forever before then (with the exceptiion of the last four years). I will miss the tstorms, the rain, the crickets. I left a note on our porch about our resident toad..i will miss the wildlife. When i left our home, and it was and is for sale, i left a note about my sneakers on the porch.

Our house wss built solid there. So far since we have been home, we have had A screwed up a/c, our tub leaks, my uncle died while we were en rout ,his wife was dx'd days later with cancer ofhe everything.

Just send goodd ju-ju our way. We need it.



Why did you move to LA anyway? Is it better? And I'm sorry to hear about your loss I hope everything gets better for you...

Ohh and I'll send you good Ju-Ju. lol

Member Since: Mayo 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


OMG... Lightning and Fireworks? I bet that was cool to watch. But hows LA? Is it better than than the East Coast?

Just different. I have been here for a few days - lived here forever before then (with the exceptiion of the last four years). I will miss the tstorms, the rain, the crickets. I left a note on our porch about our resident toad..i will miss the wildlife. When i left our home, and it was and is for sale, i left a note about my sneakers on the porch.

Our house wss built solid there. So far since we have been home, we have had A screwed up a/c, our tub leaks, my uncle died while we were en rout ,his wife was dx'd days later with cancer ofhe everything.

Just send goodd ju-ju our way. We need it.
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Hokay. Was gonna ask about the FujiwharaEffect causing HurricaneCarlos to spin up Invest96E. And between the time it took to jump between the NavyInvest page and the NationalHurricaneCenter page, 96E had become TropicalDepressionFive-E (aka TD05E).

Now it looks like TD05E is gonna be rapidly spun up into TropicalStormDolores by sucking power from Carlos. Two hurricanes heading for Hawaii?
Or is TD05E still too far away from HurricaneCarlos (guesstimating ~900NauticalMiles) for the FujiwharaEffect to come into play?
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Quoting melwerle:
No way - i didn't want to do the southern route for some reason...i went through atlanta then through ark, ala, ok, tx, nm, ar and ca

We went from Gallup to San Diego in one day. I was wiped. Only really bad weather day with all the kids and dogs and bird happened in Ark = terrible weather - July 4 - the fireworks were still going off with the lightning and thunder and the dogs were flipping out


OMG... Lightning and Fireworks? I bet that was cool to watch. But hows LA? Is it better than than the East Coast?
Member Since: Mayo 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
No way - i didn't want to do the southern route for some reason...i went through atlanta then through ark, ala, ok, tx, nm, ar and ca

We went from Gallup to San Diego in one day. I was wiped. Only really bad weather day with all the kids and dogs and bird happened in Ark = terrible weather - July 4 - the fireworks were still going off with the lightning and thunder and the dogs were flipping out
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00Z GFS moves the CATL wave toward the northern lesser antilles

...while 00Z CMC moves it toward the central lesser antilles

Member Since: Octubre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6440
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Nuttin, yet lol
Quoting melwerle:

Long drive across - longer than i tought and i am not 22 anymore....makes a diff


Yea I hear ya. Did you take I-10 all the way?
Member Since: Mayo 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042


Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


Longtime no see Mel...

Long drive across - longer than i tought and i am not 22 anymore....makes a diff
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The eye of Carlos is beginning to clear up again, and he can intensify a bit more. He is extremely small at the moment and I'm starting to wonder how much more his circulation can tighten up before Westerly Flow aloft tears him apart.


Member Since: Mayo 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
2352. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


Meteosat 4 km IR4 Floater
(CIRA Personnel Only)
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Quoting melwerle:
Hey kids...checking in after our journey - and i have about 7 thousand pages to read back. I saw the w/c yesterday after our tv was hookedup and said nothing was going on...

Updates?


Tropical Update
You can go back to previous entries
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting melwerle:
Hey kids...checking in after our journey - and i have about 7 thousand pages to read back. I saw the w/c yesterday after our tv was hookedup and said nothing was going on...

Updates?


Longtime no see Mel...
Member Since: Mayo 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
Hey kids...checking in after our journey - and i have about 7 thousand pages to read back. I saw the w/c yesterday after our tv was hookedup and said nothing was going on...

Updates?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and they said the titanic would'nt sink too one time


Steve Lyons said that? Yeah he probably did, he's pretty old
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2346. JRRP

Tropical Atlantic
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6203
NEW YORK (Reuters) - While most of the Atlantic basin remained quiet on Tuesday, some forecasters said a large tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic appeared to be slowly organizing into what could become the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season's next tropical depression or first storm.

"Several forecast models do now suggest that some development will take place with the wave over the next few days. The bottom line is that while conditions are not ideal, this is the first wave in a couple weeks that has had any chance of developing," Stephen Strum, Frontier Weather Inc's president and lead meteorologist, said in a morning report.

Strum added that a long-term track was pure speculation at this point.

"Once you get to the middle of July, you start to see the wave activity become a little more active, and the waves that come off Africa have a better chance to develop because the water is now warm enough between the Atlantic and the Caribbean to support the waves. Prior to mid-July the water is just too cool there, so they all just sputter and die," Strum told Reuters.

"These waves start to come off about every three days now. We'll start to see more activity going forward from this point on, which is normal, just from a climatologically typical pattern," Strum said.

Forecaster AccuWeather.com said there were currently no tropical systems across the Atlantic basin and no development expected at least through Wednesday.

The forecaster said, however, it was also tracking three tropical waves.

A tropical wave moving over the Lesser Antilles Tuesday was moving into warmer water, but strong wind shear over the Caribbean would likely prevent the wave from becoming better organized beyond Wednesday, it said.

A wave located over Guatemala and southeastern Mexico was likely to move into the eastern Pacific over the next day or two, AccuWeather.com said.

Natural gas traders linked part of a rise in prices early Tuesday to the stir in tropical activity. Natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5 percent early Tuesday to as high as $3.44 per million British thermal units.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

There has been one tropical depression so far this season.

The first named storm of the season will be Ana.

Tropical storms pack maximum sustained winds ranging from 39 to 73 miles per hour.

(Reporting by Eileen Moustakis; Additional reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Walter Bagley)


© Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Tazmanian:
they need too wake up they need too launch this in the AM 1st thing not in the PM wish nevere works out has you can see they need too wake up and o it 1st thing in the AM not in the PM



wake up * NASA




Extremely impossible, due to orbital mechanics. Now if it was a non-ISS mission like the last one, they have a launch window of 3 hours or more. NASA knows what their doing. And it was supposet to launch in the early morning back in June before the GUCP scrubs.
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they need too wake up they need too launch this in the AM 1st thing not in the PM wish nevere works out has you can see they need too wake up and o it 1st thing in the AM not in the PM



wake up * NASA


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IMO We will have ANNA by August 7
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Lets see if we can get this baby up at 6:03 PM EDT! GO ENDEAVOUR!!!!!!
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2338. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "ISANG" has accelerated as it continues to move northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
===================================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Isang located at 14.7°N 127.4°E or420 kms east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 knots).

Additional Information
=======================
Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 440 kms West of Dagupan, Pangasinan (16.0°N, 116.6°E). This disturbance will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over the western section of Southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
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2337. ededed
Marco probably would've been like what Carlos is right now if it had gotten more time over the water. They're both puny storms.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Dr. Lyons said tonight that the CV Wave have "no chance of developing".



I guess we better believe him, since he has a ''Ph.D'' in tropical meteorology. :)


He's just one resource. I do listen to what he says but I don't take his word to the bank. He can be wrong just like everyone else.

Having said that, I think we are still a week or two away from our first storm. That is just my opinion and I would not take it to the bank either:)


Steve Lyons isn't allowed to be wrong, he is a former aggie prof. (j/k)

Like beell is saying. Do not be surprised if they both look like a patch of cloud, nothingmore, in 24 hours.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


I guess we better believe him, since he has a ''Ph.D'' in tropical meteorology. :)
Education

B.S., M.S. and Ph.D. in Meteorology, University of Hawaii

Awards & Accreditations

Fellow of the American Meteorological Society
Adjunct Professor Texas A&M University
Published more than 20 papers in scientific journals
Written more than 40 technical reports and articles for the National Weather Service and the Navy
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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