Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Can't tell much from this

Nrti: Thank you very much - definitely a keeper

Quoting stillwaiting:
there is a surface low starting to form around:80W,20.5N,apparent on vis.loop

Right north of the Caymans?? I don't think so. All of that is a just a huge area of moisture that is now being shed from the system. The circulation is still just SE of Cozumel

Quoting tea3781:
I think the winds are in Knots not MPH

Correct

FL's Dolly 2009?????

Many have pointed out that a system forming is a fluid motion. If you read back over the statements from yesterday evening until today you will see that each one is part of the formation process. The movement, the low appearing, disappearing, convection moving, consolidating some here, then changing position.

The comments that make a prediction based on an hour worth of observations, and the current conditions are looking for immediate gratification. If this were to develop, it will take time, and go through the process.

Quoting zoomiami:
Many have pointed out that a system forming is a fluid motion. If you read back over the statements from yesterday evening until today you will see that each one is part of the formation process. The movement, the low appearing, disappearing, convection moving, consolidating some here, then changing position.

The comments that make a prediction based on an hour worth of observations, and the current conditions are looking for immediate gratification. If this were to develop, it will take time, and go through the process.

You see.. there you go using logic again.. you know a few on here do not understand it.... They want it now.. not 12 hours from now.

Buoy 42056...Yucatan basin...19.9N and 85.1W....pressure went from 29.86 to 29.89 in an hour....

"Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 131 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.04 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.7 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.5 °F"

Whoaa guys, come on now, this is what the NHC center expected, and they were right. Development after it leaves the Yucatan. Although if it goes through the channel, maybe an earlier notice.

if this new surface low is forming it might be from the old MLC from yesterday,it was still apparent on the visable around sunset last night,and I do believe that is where it would have drifted,the shear is much lower over the postion I stated earlier w/a anticyclone very close to the area!!!

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Can't tell much from this

I think its pretty accurte.
Anywere from Mexico to Florida is at risk!

I can finally see a NNW movement!! I could only see north for the longest time...

I would suggest that the pressure rise indicates the area of lowest pressure has passed by the buoy, but that wouldn't make sense considering the winds are out of the SE.

42056 - MARITIME-buoy
Saturday Jun. 27 - 11:50 UTCAir Temperature: 79°F
Dewpoint: 76°F
Wind: SSE at 20 mph
gusting to 25
Pressure: 1011.3 mb
Wave Height: 7 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 82.9°F

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 93 2009062712 BEST 0 192N 862W 25 1008 DB

Cozumel is within 75 miles of those coordinates. That buoy(42056), is within 70 miles the other side of those coordinates.

Both pressure readings went up .... .04 and .03 the last hour.

I'll say it....93L is not spinning up for now. Just like the NHC said it wouldn't do in the latest TWO. Not today.

19.2N 86.2W

New coordinates.

Not convinced of an Easterly track until defined LLC can be determined.

Quoting futuremet:
19.2N 86.2W

New coordinates.

Pretty close to the new convection.

Quoting hurricanehanna:
42056 - MARITIME-buoy
Saturday Jun. 27 - 11:50 UTCAir Temperature: 79°F
Dewpoint: 76°F
Wind: SSE at 20 mph
gusting to 25
Pressure: 1011.3 mb
Wave Height: 7 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 82.9°F

And the wind direction really has not changed in days and days...



A surface circulation should give us NE winds at this buoy...if they were present.

G'Morning earthlings.

G'Morning earthlings.

Oh, and you too, Ike.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I would suggest that the pressure rise indicates the area of lowest pressure has passed by the buoy, but that wouldn't make sense considering the winds are out of the SE.

Sun came out. Could just be a diurnal pressure effect. Rises dirung the day falls at night...married to surface temp.

Quoting IKE:


Cozumel is within 75 miles of those coordinates. That buoy(42056), is within 70 miles the other side of those coordinates.

Both pressure readings went up .... .03 and .04 the last hour.

I'll say it....93L is not spinning up for now. Just like the NHC said it wouldn't do in the latest TWO. Not today.

I agree with you that today is not its day to develop, but the pressure rises you observes are completely normal for this time of day. Rises starting at around 8, and peaks around 1.

Quoting IKE:


Cozumel is within 75 miles of those coordinates. That buoy(42056), is within 70 miles the other side of those coordinates.

Both pressure readings went up .... .04 and .03 the last hour.

I'll say it....93L is not spinning up for now. Just like the NHC said it wouldn't do in the latest TWO. Not today.

Ya, NHC has 93L classified as a disturbance (DB) not a low yet. I think the pressure rise is normal for mornings (12Z). If there is some sort of weak circulation at least the wind direction for that bouy, SE makes since if some sort of circulation is to the SW of the bouy.

post 208....you know better than to come in here bein' all calm and reasonable and sensible...

What's wrong with you?!?!?!?!?!

FLWF91:your wrong,there's definately a new surface low around 20.5N,84W,its stregthening,w/a anticylone aloft and that location is WNW of the GC.....

Quoting zoomiami:
Many have pointed out that a system forming is a fluid motion. If you read back over the statements from yesterday evening until today you will see that each one is part of the formation process. The movement, the low appearing, disappearing, convection moving, consolidating some here, then changing position.

The comments that make a prediction based on an hour worth of observations, and the current conditions are looking for immediate gratification. If this were to develop, it will take time, and go through the process.

explain dolly???

i can't see anything on the latest quickstat pass to make me see any surface low

Quoting stillwaiting:
FLWF91:your wrong,there's definately a new surface low around 20.5N,84W,its stregthening,w/a anticylone aloft and that location is WNW of the GC.....

. Well, I'm just giving you my opinion. And I assure you there is no surface low that far east. You'll
miss the show if you keep looking over there.

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good Saturday morning all! So, if I'm not mistaken the LLC is currently located just south of The Isle of Youth, true or false?

false

Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
i can't see anything on the latest quickstat pass to make me see any surface low

Good. If ya did, you would be a little too special.

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good Saturday morning all! So, if I'm not mistaken the LLC is currently located just south of The Isle of Youth, true or false?

false and good morning.

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good Saturday morning all! So, if I'm not mistaken the LLC is currently located just south of The Isle of Youth, true or false?

. False

Quoting atmoaggie:
G'Morning earthlings.

Oh, and you too, Ike.

:(

Could someone provide a link to see the surface low that is being discussed?

We really need the HH's out there to find out what the heck is going on.

Guys look near Cozumel, thats where the low is developing, see the blow up?

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I agree with you that today is not its day to develop, but the pressure rises you observes are completely normal for this time of day. Rises starting at around 8, and peaks around 1.

I know their normal, but to that degree considering the surrounding weather, is quite a large jump.