Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

That was good Ike. Even though you ignore mine.

I'd put the center a bit more to the SE of Cozumel at this point.

Looking at the RGB loop on the floater, the last few frames are looking interesting...Link

Quoting gordydunnot:
That was good Ike. Even though you ignore mine.

???

it will hit west palm beach lol

Quoting Tatyana:
Does the fact that this system, for the past two days, has basically defied d-max/min mean anything? As weak as many people have said it to be, you'd think that it would be more tied to diurnal cycles.

It's the Ying Yang effect.

Quoting Funkadelic:
Hey CCHSweatherman, does this look like a possible wilma track? (much weaker of course)

To be honest with you, its too soon to tell. It will all depend upon whether or not this disturbance can finally get its act together and its condition when it gets out into the GOM.

Quoting extreme236:


By that stage of development, it would likely develop very soon. The point of the graphic is to give an early warning of potential development, not to state the obvious.

Yeh that makes sence ... but what you find is that every year many systems pop up and threaten to develop for a few days with good model support but they never strengthen. So you don't want to go around forecasting development for every cluster of thunderstorms you see. You may get over 30 invests every year but only half make it to tropical storm strength. That's why its good to wait for until you see a little more organisation before forecasting tropical storm formation.

That's why i'm not too fussy about the Cape Verde waves right now. It's only June 27th not August 27th. Nor is this a 2008-like season when we had Bertha in early July.

Please let me clarify - I am not trying to stir up any trouble. Just an opinion and I did note that the NHC is the true source.

Its a wait and see game, and it can be interesting to see if any of our predictions come true. Remember Orcas game at the beginning of the hurricane season - date of first named storm??

Quoting kingzfan104:


if it does im betting phil ferro says the phrase "south florida will see the dirty side of the storm" at least 100 times

LOL. I love Phil but he does repeat himself way too much.

I sure hope it doesn't take the Wilma track.

If this system is true to form, the convection to N will eject and disapate by morning along with the S convection. What is left will look like just like it did this morning. The question is whether it will survive the land crossing tonight and start acting like a normal developing wave.

Quoting homegirl:
I'd put the center a bit more to the SE of Cozumel at this point.

Looking at the RGB loop on the floater, the last few frames are looking interesting...Link

In watching the latest satellite images, I'm finally starting to see some improved organization as it appears a low-level circulation maybe becoming better defined offshore between the two convective masses. Will try and get some coordinates where I see the center in a few.

Gustav,..last August

the circulation of 93 is nothin compared to the spinning in my head after reading all of y'all...

Will someone please call me if I need to shutter up?

From accuweather.com:

Ike I was wrong on both counts you read my post and upon reading yours again I misunderstood it.

Quoting gordydunnot:
Ike I was wrong on both counts you read my post and upon reading yours again I misunderstood it.

:)

Hello folks, 2009 here and let the games begin. Our first invest, and just that. Beginning stages... Once it establishes some explicit area/level of a definitive llC maybe in the near future, as in the next day or say, it is a guessing game. Patience is a virtue, keep patient and let the storm take its course, when at that point something with definitive data can be established, IE, into the GOM, THEN theforcsting/predictions, where, when, and strength has much more validity to give credence to. But this place is great all said and done

accuweather isn't accurate with anything much less weather

Afternoon Everyone!
Spirited debate on here as usual. lol
The launch coverage of the new GOES-O satellite is starting on NASA T.V.

T- 1 1/2 hour from now. Storms approaching from the west..

NASA T.V.

Quoting RainyEyes:
accuweather isn't accurate with anything much less weather

Yea...just for kicks and giggles.

12-16 hours until it emerges from Yuc, does this sound about right to the masses

Would help if there was concensus on coordinates

Quoting cchsweatherman:


In watching the latest satellite images, I'm finally starting to see some improved organization as it appears a low-level circulation maybe becoming better defined offshore between the two convective masses. Will try and get some coordinates where I see the center in a few.

Right now, I'm tracking the center at around 20.0N and 86.1W moving towards the NNW (estimated 345 degrees). Keep in mind this is just based upon my observations.

Quoting Funkadelic:
Heres the latest from Hurricanecity.com,

Invest 93L:

Lat: 19.9N, 87.3W

Winds: 25 kts

Pressure: 1008mb

Do you guys think this is reliable info?

Looks pretty accurate.

Quoting Patrap:


..and we Gots da "Funktop" Color Infrared Loop

Looks SE of Cozumel to me...

Presslord you are the master of understatement.

An example of why you should have patience.

If I were to go back in time on this blog (well, I was on it last year lol) and tell them that this would hit near Brownsville Texas as a Category 2 Hurricane and cause a Billion dollars in damaages becoming the 4th most destructive Hurricane to ever hit Texas (3rd at the time, till Ike became the first) I would have been banned and called a wishcaster. You never know what's going to slam you in the face.

trust me everyone this low with our invest is already over land it was over playa del carmen about 30-60 minutes ago. if you want proof consult with kman.

Quoting Funkadelic:
Heres the latest from Hurricanecity.com,

Invest 93L:

Lat: 19.9N, 87.3W

Winds: 25 kts

Pressure: 1008mb

Do you guys think this is reliable info?

They...like this site...get their data from here. So yes...it is accurate.

Quoting Patrap:


Gustav,..last August

It is not Gustav it's Fay.

I agree cchs, with each new frame it appears we are seeing a LLC developing. Will it hold as it crosses teh Yucatan? Don't know...but that's where I see it and I see it becoming a bit more organized. Then again...I'm an amature. :)

I have the center at 20.2N 87.4W.

Well..then youll have to excuse me,I just got up from a Nap. Glasses are Upstairs..LOL

But props to that 50 year old memory Bank eh?
I remembered that Dvorak Look

LOL

Of course, at this point there is no actual surface low so the "center" is just a guess.

stormchaser2007, could you post the latest infrared from that site also! I was just looking at it, but I have never firgured out how to post a pic from that site...I alwasy get that block post script message. Thx

Where is StormW at? Is he still around??

Quoting IKE:


Looks pretty accurate.

Yea, but that seems to be current thinking. They just forget to mention it's only about 15% reliability give or take 1000 miles.

Quoting Acemmett90:

GOOD Flow with this ANA thingy lol

It does look like a pair of lungs.. or a pair of conjoined twins.

However I have a feeling the most eastily "lung" may split off and have a crack with developing.

Thats what I saw last night only warning is the system loves to generate mlc. We need a quick sat. or something to be sure.

I can't find a good picture of 94L (Pre-Dolly 2008) but my point remains.

Quoting Funkadelic:
Heres the latest from Hurricanecity.com,

Invest 93L:

Lat: 19.9N, 87.3W

Winds: 25 kts

Pressure: 1008mb

Do you guys think this is reliable info?

close but it is on 20.53 and 87.02 as me and kman concurred.

What your seeing is whats called,Bi-lobing.
2 distinct Convective Burst around the mean center. 93L may find her balance tonight as she emerges into the GOM proper.