Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Vortex2 tornado study finally gets some twisters to study
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:56 PM GMT en Junio 08, 2009 +5
A proven way to reduce the incidence of dangerous weather phenomena is to schedule a multi-million dollar field experiment to study the phenomena. Up until this past weekend, that has certainly been true of this year's $10 million Vortex2 tornado study. The 7-week study (which also runs next year) has deployed an armada of over 100 storm chasing vehicles across the Great Plains this Spring, but has largely been frustrated by an exceptionally quiet tornado season. Tornado activity in May was less than half of what was observed last year in May, thanks to a ridge of high pressure that has dominated the weather. The residents of Tornado Alley ran out of luck over the weekend, though, as a strong low pressure system and associated cold front brought severe weather and multiple tornadoes to the region. Sixteen tornado reports were received by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center yesterday, and three on Friday. The team of University of Michigan students that has been writing our featured Vortex2 blog caught some excellent pictures of tornadoes on both Friday and Sunday. Yesterday was probably the last best chance for the Vortex2 project to document a strong tornado, since the project ends this Saturday and no significant tornado outbreaks appear likely for the remainder of this week.

Aurora, Colorado tornado yesterday
A tornado with a 3/4 mile wide debris cloud swept through Aurora, Colorado yesterday, staying on the ground for 8 - 11 miles and damaging a shopping mall, but causing no deaths or injuries. The tornado passed close to one of the high-resolution Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TDWRs) that we now feature on our web site (see the radar FAQ for more details on these great new additions to our radar offerings). Posted below are the reflectivity and Doppler velocity images from the tornado, showing the amazing fine-scale details these high-resolution radars offer.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) from the Denver, Colorado Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), which caught the classic signature of a supercell thunderstorm tornado over Aurora, Colorado. A tornado dropped down from the low-level mesocyclone inside the parent supercell thunderstorm at the time of these images. Yellow colors located right next to greens/blues indicate that winds are moving towards and away from the radar in close proximity, the signature of strong rotation at low levels. Also visible on the plot are the winds spreading out from a downdraft on the rear side of the tornado. Black arrows denote the direction of wind flow. The dryline was bent back into a E-W orientation near Denver, creating an area of moisture convergence, which triggered thunderstorm formation.

Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week
As area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean has brought rains of 2 - 3 inches over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras over the past few days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and no computer models are indicating that the disturbance will develop this week.

Jeff Masters, with help from wunderground's tornado expert, Dr. Rob Carver

Dying out after an official 24 minutes on the ground
Tornado (Fungus)
Tornado
Twisted (rrose1)
This was taken approximately 30 minutes after a brief tornado passed through South Hutchinson, KS tonight. The building is a bus manufacturing facility.
Twisted
Categories: Tornado
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1201. Floodman 7:45 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting Orcasystems:


Gasp.. I see a weather phenomena coming on... yup.. there it is... poof.


Careful, Orca, my friend...that word can get you into a lot of trouble around here...seems some trolls have thin skins...LMAO

By the way, it's all in the follow through:

*POOF!*

LOL
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1202. PensacolaDoug 7:47 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
you can make it bigger if you want :)


Try "Enzyte"....
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1203. Ossqss 7:47 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting Vortex95:
Orca how dare you call me a grumpy old man!!!

They are not pleased



Humm, if I had to guess who that was in the picture, I would say Tampa and Orca when they were younger :)
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1205. BobinTampa 7:55 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Bastardi is worried about a hurricane on the eastern seaboard? Let me guess...the Northeast is especially vulnerable???
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1206. NRAamy 7:55 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Just say "poot".....

;)
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1207. Floodman 7:59 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Howdy, Amy, DestinJeff...folks...
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1208. VAbeachhurricanes 8:02 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    


coming at me...
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1209. jeffs713 8:05 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting RitaEvac:
Got a friggin blow dryer going on here in TX. Hot in the 90s and 20 mph winds out of the S and SW. Drought conditions spreading rapidly again and moving into SE TX. And to top it off the damn mosquitos are still out in full force. Crazy man.

Welcome to SE Texas? Its going to be like that for the next 3-4 months, might as well get used to it.

On the subject of blog font size... when I typed up my latest entry (a personal review of Hurricane Ike's impacts, 9 months later) on Sunday, it was in the smaller font. (both here at work on IE6, and at home, on Firefox 3) Now, it is in the larger font here at work (haven't looked from home today). But... the comments are still in the smaller font.
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1210. weatherwatcher12 8:05 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
can we expect more rain and wind in Jamaica
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1212. Floodman 8:10 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting RitaEvac:
Got a friggin blow dryer going on here in TX. Hot in the 90s and 20 mph winds out of the S and SW. Drought conditions spreading rapidly again and moving into SE TX. And to top it off the damn mosquitos are still out in full force. Crazy man.


I'm in DFW: 95, humidity about 25%, light convection oven winds turning the yard into wicker...it's Texas, man, what did you expect?
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1214. CatastrophicDL 8:17 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting Floodman:


I'm in DFW: 95, humidity about 25%, light convection oven winds turning the yard into wicker...it's Texas, man, what did you expect?

Flood, humidity is only at 25%? Wow, that's a nice day. Now if it was 95 and 65%+ humitidy that would suck! :o)
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1215. Floodman 8:18 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Bastardi's "Year without a summer"?...Nope:

Mostly Hype
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1216. Floodman 8:19 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Flood, humidity is only at 25%? Wow, that's a nice day. Now if it was 95 and 65% humitidy that would suck! :o)


I lived in New Orleans for four years and I grew up in St Louis; yep, that's a nice day...I love it when the weatherman here says "Humidity is going to be brutal today, 30% or thereabouts". Try 95 at 80%///LOL

So how are you, DL?
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1217. CatastrophicDL 8:23 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Doing good and really glad I'm in a state with no humidity :o) I couldn't stand it when I lived there. You'd walk outside and melt!

We are super cool here so far for the year, I haven't had to turn my A/C on once. Usually I have it on in mid May, but I've got cool temps for at least another week. We've gotten so much rain my lawn is growing thousands of mushrooms!
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1218. weatherwatcher12 8:23 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
can we expect more rain and wind in Jamaica

got my answer:

NEWS RELEASE

Monday 08, 2009 – 5:00 p.m

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL PARISHES ***

The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

A persistent Trough over the Caribbean continues to influence weather conditions over Jamaica. Today the island experience cloudy conditions with periods of showers affecting mainly western parishes. A strong Tropical Wave currently east of Jamaica is expected to interact with this Trough tomorrow.

Consequently, a significant increase in showers and thunderstorms which may be heavy at times is expected across the island tomorrow through Thursday. Flash flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is therefore expected.

Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise caution as gusty winds and rough seas may be encountered in areas of showers and thunderstorms north and south of the island.


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.
vtj/lpb
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1219. jeffs713 8:25 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Now if it was 95 and 65%+ humitidy that would suck! :o)

Actually, its not that bad. You just go from an air conditioned house to an air conditioned car to an air conditioned office... and back. You only have to deal with the heat for a few minutes at a time, and when you have a heart attack upon getting your electric bill.
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1220. clwstmchasr 8:26 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Throughout the day I've been watching the visible satellite loops for the disturbance off the Nicaraguan coast in the Western Caribbean. As the day has progressed, it has become evident that some mid-level circulation has developed, but it now appears that even the circulation has been struggling through the early afternoon in the face of rather strong wind shear. Will continue to watch this disturbance since some computer models continue to suggest more favorable conditions coming down the road in about 4 to 5 days.

I thought 4 to 5 days ago that the models suggested that conditions would become more favorable for development in 4 to 5 days.
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1221. CatastrophicDL 8:28 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting jeffs713:

Actually, its not that bad. You just go from an air conditioned house to an air conditioned car to an air conditioned office... and back. You only have to deal with the heat for a few minutes at a time, and when you have a heart attack upon getting your electric bill.

Jeffs, I know, I lived there for years. Four of my seven kids were born there. I could never get them to play outside in the summer for some reason :o)
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1222. claimsadjuster 8:29 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
What is the odds we will see a named system by early to mid week out of the "blob" area.
1223. cchsweatherman 8:31 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Throughout the day I've been watching the visible satellite loops for the disturbance off the Nicaraguan coast in the Western Caribbean. As the day has progressed, it has become evident that some mid-level circulation has developed, but it now appears that even the circulation has been struggling through the early afternoon in the face of rather strong wind shear. Will continue to watch this disturbance since some computer models continue to suggest more favorable conditions coming down the road in about 4 to 5 days.

I thought 4 to 5 days ago that the models suggested that conditions would become more favorable for development in 4 to 5 days.


You make a valid point. Been skeptical about the computer models thus far this hurricane season and continue to be, but I report what I see unless it seems too unrealistic or doesn't have any support.
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1224. CatastrophicDL 8:31 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Jeffs, by the way, I'm an Arizona native. I LOVE the heat, it is the humidity that I can't stand. We are in the 100's several times a year here in Utah as well, but it is no where near as bad as TX since it is a dry heat.
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1225. RitaEvac 8:34 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting Floodman:


I'm in DFW: 95, humidity about 25%, light convection oven winds turning the yard into wicker...it's Texas, man, what did you expect?


SE winds and seabreeze storms off the Gulf
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1226. Levi32 8:35 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    


Quoting clwstmchasr:
Throughout the day I've been watching the visible satellite loops for the disturbance off the Nicaraguan coast in the Western Caribbean. As the day has progressed, it has become evident that some mid-level circulation has developed, but it now appears that even the circulation has been struggling through the early afternoon in the face of rather strong wind shear. Will continue to watch this disturbance since some computer models continue to suggest more favorable conditions coming down the road in about 4 to 5 days.

I thought 4 to 5 days ago that the models suggested that conditions would become more favorable for development in 4 to 5 days.


That's actually untrue. The GFS alone was being erratic forecasting development around this time 4-5 days ago under hostile upper-level winds. The other global models, even the GFS, 4-5 days ago were predicting unfavorable conditions until 10-15 days from then, which is 5-10 days from now.
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1227. jeffs713 8:41 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Jeffs, by the way, I'm an Arizona native. I LOVE the heat, it is the humidity that I can't stand. We are in the 100's several times a year here in Utah as well, but it is no where near as bad as TX since it is a dry heat.

I'm the same way. I was born in northern Colorado (Greeley, to be exact), and lived there for 8 years. I loved the dry heat up there. Down here in the Houston area... bleh. In dry heat, when you sweat, it actually does something. In humid heat, like Houston, when you sweat, it just makes you stink.

Last week there was actually a couple of days where it hit 90, but the humidity was abnormally low, and I was astonished how nice it felt. (it had been a while since it was last hot and dry here)

I still miss my mountains, though.
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1228. clwstmchasr 8:44 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    


Quoting clwstmchasr:
Throughout the day I've been watching the visible satellite loops for the disturbance off the Nicaraguan coast in the Western Caribbean. As the day has progressed, it has become evident that some mid-level circulation has developed, but it now appears that even the circulation has been struggling through the early afternoon in the face of rather strong wind shear. Will continue to watch this disturbance since some computer models continue to suggest more favorable conditions coming down the road in about 4 to 5 days.

I thought 4 to 5 days ago that the models suggested that conditions would become more favorable for development in 4 to 5 days.


That's actually untrue. The GFS alone was being erratic forecasting development around this time 4-5 days ago under hostile upper-level winds. The other global models, even the GFS, 4-5 days ago were predicting unfavorable conditions until 10-15 days from then, which is 5-10 days from now.


I guess I got caught up in the excitment of a potential system that everyone here was talking about instead of paying attention to the few who really know what they are talking about.
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1229. homelesswanderer 8:44 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Flood, humidity is only at 25%? Wow, that's a nice day. Now if it was 95 and 65%+ humitidy that would suck! :o)


Lol. Its 90 with 61% humidity. Winds gusting out of SSE at 19. Actually not too bad for this time of year. At least we have a breeze. Usually in the summer we...uh let me rephrase that...in the summer we used to pray for so much as a breeze to stir this soup around and couldnt get a breath of wind. God sure has a sense of humor. Lol. 3 hurricanes and 4 named storms in 3 years. He showed us wind! Lol. And this deep in SE TX we don't usually get the dry winds off the plains. But earlier this year we were dry enough for a fire warning. And the locals said we are needing rain again already. Thats not unusual for summer though. Ick! Gonna be a long hot one ahead.
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1230. CycloneOz 8:44 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting Vortex95:


I remember when I was in Las Vegas in June it got up to 115 one day. Man was it hot.


The Las Vegas high desert is many hundreds of miles from our high desert in northern New Mexico.

The difference in climate between the two is as disparate as the distance separating them.



ROCKHOUND ALERT!

The missus and I are producing a new American Rockhound episode for YouTube this weekend. Our adventure begins south of Albuquerque, NM [See Figure 1.]


Figure 1: Rio Puerco Valley - South of Albuquerque, NM

The areas in white are not snow! This area is actually a prehistoric beach and it is loaded with petrified wood, jaspar and fossils washed down eons ago when the shallow, inland sea drained 25 million years ago during the upheaval.

We'll search this area the morning of 6/12/2009 and then move to an area 150 miles north [See Figure 2.]


Figure 2: Jemez Mountains / Copper-infused Area - East of Cuba, NM

We'll camp in this area the evening of 6/12 and then explore the region on 6/13. This is the location where all the Rio Puerco material originated. We're expecting to find amazing specimens of petrified wood that has been not only agatized, but also infused with copper.

This will be a must-see show on YouTube.

I hope each of you have as great a weekend as we'll have here exploring nature's wonders!

CycloneOz---
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1231. CycloneOz 8:46 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
you can make it bigger if you want :)


Try "Enzyte"....


LOL...personally recommended, Doug? I don't recall you with that type of permanent smile...
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1232. gator23 8:49 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting Vortex95:
Yo Ikesta u concur with Weather Students observations?


You mean JFV
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1233. weatherwatcher12 8:51 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting gator23:


You mean JFV

he admitted it
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1235. gator23 8:51 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Quoting clwstmchasr:
I guess I got caught up in the excitment of a potential system that everyone here was talking about instead of paying attention to the few who really know what they are talking about.


Patience. Patience
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1236. gator23 8:52 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
1233.

!!! I must have missed that!
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1237. weatherwatcher12 8:52 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
convection is really trying to refire

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1238. RitaEvac 8:53 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
convection is really trying to refire



Hype
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1239. weatherwatcher12 8:53 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting vortfix:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
214 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009


PATTERN EVOLUTION-FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IN THIS AREA THE MODELS DISAGREE ON RISK
OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A SMALL CYCLONE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IN INTERACTION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE GFS
FORECASTS THIS SYSTEM TO RETAIN ITS INTEGRITY WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMAICA THROUGH 36-42 HRS. THE GFS THEN
FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO STALL. THE NAM INITIALLY FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR EVOLUTION...THEN FORECASTS THE LOW TO MIGRATE WEST TO
SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 78 HRS. THE ECMWF FAILS TO
INITIALIZE THE LOW...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY 54-60 HRS. THIS SYSTEM IS IN A HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THAT IT MIGHT
SURVIVE/INTENSIFY AT THE PACE THE GFS/NAM INDICATE. CONDITIONS
MIGHT BE MORE FAVORABLE AFTER 48/60 HRS WHEN THE UPPER LOW CUTS
OFF AND THE INFLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT STARTS TO WANE.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST HONDURAS WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. MOST INTENSE IS
EXPECTED OVER WATER...AND AS THE WEAK VORTEX MIGRATES TOWARDS
JAMAICA THROUGH 36 HRS IT WILL FAVOR A SURGE IN ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...BETWEEN 24-60 HRS...WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 20-40MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM TO AFFECT JAMAICA... HAITIAN PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA. CONVECTION MIGHT PERSIST INTO DAY
03...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON INTENSITY/INTEGRITY OF
THE SURFACE CYCLONE. WE ARE GOING FOR HEAVY RAINS ON DAY 03...AS A
WORST CASE SCENARIO...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE
MAXIMA WILL PERSIST AT 150-250MM...WITH POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA...SUSTAINS THE NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF
THE ITCZ INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ
MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...WHILE THE
EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GUIANAS-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DAY 03.

we are under a flash flood watch
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1240. Floodman 8:53 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting RitaEvac:


SE winds and seabreeze storms off the Gulf


LOL...that WOULD be nice, huh?
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1241. RitaEvac 8:55 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting Floodman:


LOL...that WOULD be noce, huh?


Long as a .25 inch or .50 inch of rain comes and goes with the heat I'm good.
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1242. weatherwatcher12 8:55 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting RitaEvac:


Hype

? I was just pointing it out. I'm not trying to excite anyone. Just here to discuss
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1244. gator23 8:55 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting RitaEvac:


Hype


Lol its been an emotional rollercoaster with this blob.
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1245. Floodman 8:56 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Well, I'm out folks...play nice!
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1246. Levi32 8:56 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting gator23:


Lol its been an emotional rollercoaster with this blob.


Lol you guys love to make these things sound like a soap opera.
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1247. weatherwatcher12 8:57 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting vortfix:
weatherwatcher12


OK...where the heck are you located?
You should make that info available under your profile so people don't have to ask.


I probably will. I'm located in Jamaica
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1248. RitaEvac 8:57 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Just dont like everthing dying in the heat
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1249. gator23 8:58 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
Quoting Levi32:


Lol you guys love to make these things sound like a soap opera.


The title: As the Wind Blows...
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1250. futuremet 9:02 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
RitaVec is not overhyping, incessant convection flare ups have been occuring since late last night. This seems to be showing some slight signs of cyclonic characteristics, since the vorticity values at 700mb are near the main convection mass.

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1251. TheCaneWhisperer 9:08 PM GMT en Junio 09, 2009    
MESSAGE DATE: JUN 09 2009 13:11:03 MIA SOUNDING 12Z (06/09/09) EQUIL LEVEL 44877, CAPE 4202, PWAT 1.73, 500 MB TEMP -8.3C, LI INDEX -8.21, HGT OF WET BULB 13101, FRZ LEVEL 15314, AND THE LAPSE RA TE 7.89. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 KNOTS TODAY, ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ARE AS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

Good lawd!!!

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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