Florida poised for a substantial soaking
An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, in association with a trough of low pressure. The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models continue to forecast that this disturbance will develop into an extratropical low by Tuesday. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it lifts northwestward over Florida. Up to nine inches of rain may fall over Florida by Friday (Figure 1), thanks also to a cold front expected to move over the state over the next two days. The exact timing and location of the rains over Florida are still uncertain, as the GFS model predicts development of the low over the Bahamas, while the ECMWF and UKMET models predict development over South Florida. At present, it appears wind shear will be too high to allow the extratropical storm to transition into a subtropical or tropical storm. However, if the storm's center emerges into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, wind shear may be low enough to allow a transition to a subtropical storm (10% chance).
Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet (Figure 2), which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.
Figure 1. Forecast precipitation amount between 8am EDT Monday 5/18/09 and 8am EDT Saturday 5/23/09. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Figure 2. Water levels in Florida's Lake Okeechobee were under the level that triggers conservation measures between January 2007 - August 2008. Tropical Storm Fay then filled up the lake, which has gradually declined in level since, reaching water shortage management levels again in May 2009. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
There has been little change to the large upper-level cold low spinning in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The low may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.
Climatology of early-season Atlantic tropical cyclones
Tropical storms are uncommon in the Atlantic before June 1, with only 26 named storms on record between 1851 - 2008. Five of these have made it to hurricane strength, and only one--Hurricane Able of 1951--made it to major hurricane status. Last year's Tropical Storm Arthur may be the deadliest May tropical cyclone on record. Though only a 40 mph tropical storm at landfall, Arthur killed five people in Belize and caused $78 million in damage. Three early-season storms have brought hurricane-force winds to land. The March 1908 hurricane swept through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, destroying at least 24 boats and causing damage to buildings on St. Bartholomew. Hurricane Able of 1951 brought sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph to the northern Bahama Islands, but caused little damage. Hurricane 2 of May 1908 hit North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, but also caused little damage.
List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur
May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana
April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1
May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene
January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1
May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1
May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha
May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1)
May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene
February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice
May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1
May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3)
May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1
May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1
May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1
May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1
May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1
May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1
May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1)
March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2)
May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1
May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1)
May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2
May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1
May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1
I'll have an update Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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When it's 2,000 miles from Miami.
Lets worry about the Current System first.
Station 42363 - Mars - Mississippi Canyon 807
Ikster??? his name is IKE
Didn't we say the same thing about 90l last night?
LOL!
"Drak is that tropical wave gonna be the next Cat 5 and stall over my house?!?!?!?!?"
"Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?!?!?!? Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?!?!?!? Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?!?!?!?"
LMAO!!!
Station 42889 - Medusa - Mississippi Canyon 582
Station 42889 is located at 28.394 N 89.465 W (2823'40" N 8927'54" W)
It's just diurnal minimum that is causing the drop in convection imo
Tampa, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
http://hurricanewarning1.com/
The broad area of disturbed weather across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas is the main issue tonight in the tropics. It is a very complex system, one of the most complex situations I've seen. It consists of two major features, a weak surface low off the northern coast of Cuba and a cut-off low west of Florida. The weak low off the northern coast of Cuba is what I was monitoring south of Cuba in the previous discussion. It lifted north as expected, and also organized. It is elongated though and also lacking convection, and wind shear is still 20-30 knots over it which is inhibiting real organization. The cut-off low west of Florida has developed today from an unusually strong cold front, which is bringing frost as far south as the southern Appalachian mountains. The cut-off low is the cause of the drenching rains that currently stretch across almost the entire Florida peninsula. This cut-off low is far from tropical at this time though, with cool/dry air pouring into the western semicircle of the low. Computer models diverge greatly on the evolution of the two low pressure systems, with the NAM and GFS unable to reach a consensus on which low pressure system will dominate. Considering that the low pressure system north of Cuba is weak and disorganized, while the cut-off low is vigorous and large, I'm going to forecast the cut-off low to become dominant over the next couple of days. This is in line with the NAM. This would mean that drenching rains will continue over Florida, as the cut-off low sits in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and slowly organizes. The low currently north of Cuba would swing around the periphery of the cut-off low in this scenario, coming across Florida before being absorbed into the low. This is a low-confidence forecast due to the wild nature of that situation, it reminds me of something out of the 'Perfect Storm.' It remains to be seen if the cut-off low can make the transition to a sub-tropical system, but I think it's possible if it has enough time over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Regardless, Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba should expect heavy rains the next few days. I have outlined the discussed scenario in the forecast graphic below.
Interesting...thanks Taz
your welcome
any time IKE your welcome
Here is a summary for this year:
Changes to GFS and HWRF not likely to bring major improvements to track and intensity forecasts by those models (or the GFDL) in 2009
Additional upgrades to HWRF (more sophisticated ocean coupling, effects of sea spray, and assimilation of data in the TC inner core will be tested (but not implemented) this year
Major upgrades to the GFDN were implemented near the end of last year’s hurricane season and the GFDN is expected to have significantly improved track forecasts in 2009
Additional upgrades to the GFDN are anticipated over the next few years (as opposed to the GFDL, for which no further upgrades are planned)
Ensembles such as the SREF may provide useful track forecast guidance
Enhancements to statistical TC intensity forecast models, better use of satellite data and addition of lightning data, are expected over the next few years
Improvements to the wind speed probabilities to more realistically depict forecast uncertainty for a given advisory could be implemented within the next few years
HFIP provides a significant investment to accelerate improvements in hurricane models
WOW that sounds perfect!
Hey, how its going.
I'm just one drop in the big bucket of the blog. Everyone here their piece of info to make the blog worthwhile.
Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!
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