A cautionary tale--the PETM
One frequently hears comments like, "Earth has had many periods of warmth far exceeding the warmth of today's climate, so we should not be surprised if the current warming of the globe is a natural phenomena". This view is especially prevalent among geologists, who take a very long view of history and are among the most skeptical scientists regarding the reality of human-caused climate change. It is true that Earth's past has had many episodes of natural global warming that we can learn from. But the greatest natural global warming episode of the past 65 million years, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) event of 55 million years ago, presents us with a cautionary tale of how massive releases of greenhouse gases--similar in scale to what humans are now producing--may cause extreme warming of the climate.
Earth's orbital variations--the most common form of natural global warming
The most common cause of natural global warming over time has been changes in Earth's orbit. Three oscillations in Earth's orbit with periods of 26,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years (called Milankovitch cycles) cause ice ages to be triggered when summer sunshine at 65°N reaches a minimum. The reduced sunlight over Canada, Siberia, and Scandinavia allows winter snowfall to persist through the summer, and thus accumulate and build Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. There isn't enough land in the Southern Hemisphere to allow large, land-based ice sheets to build there, so it is the growth and decay of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets that has controlled the timing of ice ages and warm inter-glacial periods over the past three million years. Earth's orbit is currently in a phase where the amount of sunlight falling at 65°N is changing very little. Thus, the primary mechanism for past natural global warming events is not to blame for the current warming. According to the "official" word on climate, the 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the amount of sunlight falling at 65°N is expected to change little over the next 30,000 years, and "it is very unlikely that the Earth would naturally enter into another ice age for at least 30,000 years".
Pumping huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere coincided with extreme climate warming during the PETM
Natural global warming has also occurred in the past due to changes in solar brightness, and natural emissions of natural carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (methane is the primary component of the natural gas we use to heat our homes, is a potent greenhouse gas 20 - 25 more effective at heating the Earth than than CO2, with a lifetime of about 9 years in the atmosphere before reacting with the OH radical to form CO2). I discussed one example of natural global warming in my previous post--volcanoes have emitted enough CO2 over time to account for a large portion of Earth's natural greenhouse effect. However, volcanoes only put about 1 - 3% as much CO2 per year into the atmosphere as human activities do. What, then, does Earth's past tell us about what might happen if we dump 100 times more carbon than volcanoes do into the atmosphere, over a period of a few centuries?
The end of Earth's Paleocene era, 55 million years ago, was a time of great warmth on planet Earth. Subtropical vegetation grew in Greenland and Patagonia, and crocodiles swam off the coast of Greenland. Sea surface temperatures at the North Pole were a toasty 64°F (18°C). Tropical palm forests in northern Wyoming played host to early primates. Despite the fact that the sun put out 0.5% less energy than today (equivalent to a global temperature that would be 0.5°C cooler), there was no polar ice cap or Greenland Ice Sheet. The higher temperatures of that era were probably due to high carbon dioxide levels of 560 - 600 ppm. This is far higher than the 280 ppm seen in the 1800s, and the 383 ppm as of 2009. The continents had a different configuration due to continental drift, and this may have kept the world warmer as well.
Figure 1. Global temperature change (right scale) as inferred from oxygen-18 isotope measurements (left scale) from fossil ocean microorganisms (Zachos et al., 2001). Oxygen-18 levels in these fossils are proportional to the temperatures of the era when the fossils were formed. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (labeled PETM) shows a sharp upward spike in temperatures occurred. This spike is likely to be understated by a factor of 2 - 4 due to coarse sampling and averaging in this data set. For more detail, see the Wikipedia entry for the PETM.
Then, 55 million years ago, the fossil record shows that an extraordinary drop in the ratio of carbon-13 to carbon-12 occurred, indicating that a massive amount of "light" carbon with low levels of the carbon-13 isotope was emitted into the atmosphere in a very short amount of time--just 500 - 20,000 years. The most likely source of carbon-13 depleted carbon would have been methane from ocean sediments or land vegetation. If it was methane, about 1,000 - 2,000 gigatons of carbon would have had to be injected into the atmosphere, in order to account for the observed fossil deposits. For comparison, the total amount of carbon in today's atmosphere, primarily as CO2, is a factor of two or three less--about 810 gigatons. The fossil record shows that extreme climatic warming occurred nearly simultaneously with this massive release of carbon into the atmosphere. Global average temperatures rose 9°F (5°C) in a geological instant--1,000 - 10,000 years (Sluijs et al., 2007). Average sea surface temperatures at the North Pole reached 74°F (23°C). The warmth lasted 120,000 - 220,000 years before weathering of silicate rocks was able to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere and return the climate to its former state. This was the largest global warming event since the time of the dinosaurs, 65 million year ago (Moran et al., 2006). The resulting impact on Earth's climate was so severe that a new geological era was born--the Eocene. The warming event has been dubbed the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), since it occurred at the boundary of these two eras. Ocean circulation patterns changed radically during the first 5,000 years of the PETM (Nunes and Norris, 2006), and the deep oceans became 11°F (6°C) warmer, severely depleted in oxygen, and more acidic. A mass extinction of deep ocean microorganisms resulted, though the exact reasons remain unclear. The PETM did not cause mass extinctions on land of plants and animals, but a major turnover in mammalian life occurred at that time. Many of today's major mammalian orders emerged in the wake of the PETM. The new geological era it ushered in, the Eocene, is named for the Greek goddess of the dawn (Eos), since this was the dawn of the era of large mammals.
It is extremely difficult to explain the warmth of the PETM without assuming that the huge amount of "light" carbon pumped into the atmosphere created intense warming due to the greenhouse effect. The controversial question is, how did this carbon get into the atmosphere? Did PETM happen because of the greenhouse effect from all the carbon added to the atmosphere, or did the carbon get released into the atmosphere in response to climatic warming from another cause (and boosting the warming that was already occurring?) The mystery is a difficult one to unravel, since our vision of what happened so long ago is very fuzzy. A recent high-resolution study of ocean sediments laid down in New Jersey during the PETM (Sluijs et al., 2007) argued that about half of the PETM warming occurred 1,000 - 1,500 years before the 1,000 - 2,000 gigatons of "light" carbon got injected into the atmosphere. The authors theorize that global warming due to some other cause heated up the deep oceans enough to release methane stored in the form of methane hydrate, a form of methane 'ice' that forms in cold bottom water under great pressures and is widely distributed and plentiful in sediments on the outer edges of continental margins. The methane released was the huge pulse of "light" carbon seen in the fossil record, and this methane warmed the planet even further via the greenhouse effect. The authors argued that the warming that triggered the PETM could have been due to a variation in Earth's orbit, or due to a pulse of greenhouse gases that didn't happen to be enriched in light carbon. A wide variety of other theories abound. Dickens (2004) theorizes that a volcano in the North Atlantic erupted through a huge fossil fuel deposit in overlying ocean sediments, releasing massive amounts of the stored carbon into the atmosphere. Pancost et al. 2006 found evidence that the warming of the PETM significantly increased as carbon stored on land in wetlands was released in the form of methane. Huber (2008) argued that temperatures got so hot during the PETM that a huge die-off of tropical vegetation resulted, creating vast deserts and putting thousands of gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, further increasing temperatures.
Figure 2. Photographs of methane hydrate as nodules, veins, and laminae in sediment. Intense warming of the deep oceans during the PETM may have released huge quantities of methane gas from ocean sediments with methane hydrates in them. Image credit: United States Geological Survey.
Computer climate models fail to reproduce the PETM
A big concern about the climate models that we are using to forecast climate for the coming century is that they do a poor job of reproducing the climate of the Eocene, and, in particular, the PETM. These models fail to reproduce the high temperatures observed in the polar regions relative to the tropics during the PETM. However, in the words of climate scientists Daniel Schrag and Richard Alley in a 2004 article in Nature, "It would be a grave mistake to take these lessons from ancient climates as a reason to disregard the projections from climate models." If the observations of the climate in this far-ago era are correct, the reason that the climate models fail to correctly simulate this past climate is because the climate is more sensitive to CO2 than believed. There is a missing "feedback" causing increased warming near the pole that the models are missing. Sluijs et al. (2006) theorize that the models may be missing how hurricanes transport heat to the poles, or how polar stratospheric clouds may act to trap heat over the poles. In short, the failure of the models to correctly simulate the PETM may mean that our current estimates of the amount of global warming likely over the coming century (1.1°C - 6.4°C) are far too low. The other possibility, mentioned by Huber (2008) is that the models are correct, but the temperatures inferred for the tropics from the fossil record are in error. This wouldn't be the first time that measurements were found to be in error and the models vindicated.
Comparison with today
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, humans have pumped about 500 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere. There are about 5,000 gigatons in the planet's coal reserves, while oil and traditional natural gas deposits are hundreds of gigatons each (Rogner, 1997). Given that humans are now adding about 10 gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere each year (Global Carbon Project, 2007), we will surpass the 1,000 gigaton mark 50 years from now at current emission rates. This is at the lower end of the 1,000 - 2,000 gigatons of carbon that are estimated to have been added to the atmosphere during the PETM--the most extreme natural global warming event of the past 65 million years. Though our view of events so long ago is very fuzzy, the PETM should serve as a cautionary tale. We cannot rule out the possibility that continuation of our current rates of fossil fuel burning will lead to an extreme climatic warming event like the PETM. In particular, we need to keep a careful eye on the huge reservoirs of methane hydrate stored in marine sediments (500 - 10,000 gigatons of carbon) and stored in permafrost (7.5 - 400 gigatons). Continued warming of the planet could trigger substantial releases of these massive reservoirs of greenhouse gases, leading to a repeat of the PETM event. However, a 2008 study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2008) concludes that there is currently no evidence that a sudden catastrophic release of methane stored in ocean sediments or in permafrost will happen over the next century. It should take at least a century for global warming to penetrate the deep oceans and permafrost regions containing these significant reservoirs of methane hydrates. The study concludes, "Catastrophic release of methane to the atmosphere appears very unlikely in the near term (e.g., this century)...Although the prospect of a catastrophic release of methane to the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic climate change over the next century appears very unlikely based on current knowledge, many of the processes involved are still poorly understood, and developing a better predictive capability requires further work. On a longer time scale, methane release from hydrate reservoir is likely to be a major influence in global warming over the next 1,000 to 100,000 years". So, the bottom line is: don't expect global warming to be able to cause huge releases of methane hydrates in the coming century, such as may have occurred during PETM. But it is wise to ponder that a release of greenhouse gases similar in magnitude to what we are doing now coincided with the most extreme global warming event of the last 65 million years. We should not be surprised if our human greenhouse gas emissions cause a similar massive climate perturbation over the next 1,000 years, leading the dawn of a new geological era--the Anthropocene.
For more information
The best resource I found while researching this was a December 2008 report from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), titled, Abrupt Climate Change. Chapter 5, "Potential for Abrupt Changes in Atmospheric Methane" [1.3 Mb] was the relevant chapter.
References
Archer, D., 2007, "Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change", Biogeosciences, 4, 521544,.
Dickens, G.R., 2004, "Hydrocarbon-driven warming", Nature 42, 429, pp513-515, 3 June 2004.
Huber, M., 2008, "A Hotter Greenhouse?", Science 321, no. 5887, pp. 353-354, DOI: 10.1126/science.1161170
Moran, et al., 2006, "The Cenozoic palaeoenvironment of the Arctic Ocean", Nature 441, 601-605 (1 June 2006) | doi:10.1038/nature04800.
Nunes, F. and R.D. Norris, 2006, "Abrupt reversal in ocean overturning during the Paleocene/Eocene warm period", Nature 439 (7072): 603. doi:10.1038/nature04386
Pancost, R.D., et al., 2006, "Increased terrestrial methane cycling at the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum", Nature 449, 332-335 (20 September 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06012
Rogner, H.-H, 1997, "An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources", Annu. Rev. Energy Environ., 22, 217-262.
Sluijs, A., et al., 2006, "Subtropical Arctic Ocean temperatures during the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum", Nature 441, 610-613 (1 June 2006) | doi:10.1038/nature04668
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp.
Zachos, J. C., U. Rohl, S.A. Schellenberg, A. Sluijs, D.A. Hodell, D.C. Kelly, E. Thomas, M. Nicolo, I. Raffi, L.J. Lourens, H. McCarren, and D. Kroon, 2005, "Rapid Acidification of the Ocean During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum", Science, 308, 1611-1615
Portlight.org relief walk in Destin, FL a big success
Over the weekend, the portlight.org disaster relief charity ran a highly successful relief walk in Destin, FL, to raise money for the disaster relief. The theme of this walk was to raise relief money not only for people, but for pets as well, with 25% of the money raised intended for taking care of pets injured or abandoned during disasters. As detailed in the portlight.org blog, the pet theme was a great way to raise money, and about $5000 was raised. The other relief walks this year raised $1500 in New Orleans and $542 in Kissimmee. Many more walks are planned this year, with the next one being this weekend (May 2) in Summerville, SC. Portlight also helped out with disaster relief operations for the South Carolina fires yesterday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
===========================
The Low Pressure Area West of Mindoro has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "CRISING".
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Crising located at 12.8°N 117.2°E or 380 kms west of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as quasi-stationary.
Meanwhile a Low Pressure Area was estimated in the vicinity of Albay (13.8°N, 123.0°E).
These two weather disturbances are expected to bring occasional rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas becoming frequent rains over Bicol Region, Quezon, Mindoro, Marinduque, Masbate and Samar provinces which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
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third depression in the WPAC...
Looking forward to sharing insights with everyone this upcoming season.
http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/
Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600 30APR)
========================================
An area of convection (94W) located at 13.1N 123.2E or 155 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation center nestled between the islands of southern Luzon. Upper level analysis indicates the system is in a low vertical wind shear environment with an upper level anticyclone just to the northwest that is enhancing poleward outflow.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
Speaking of heating up, yesterday was the first day in almost 3 weeks that it felt like summer was approaching. While New England was having record heat earlier this week, the high temps in Nassau barely made it to 85 degrees. The culprit has been the high pressure overhead, which has kept strong easterlies blowing during the daytime. We've had no rain either, but that is typical for this time of year.
It will be interesting to see how quickly things warm up here once the warming trend gets going in a serious way. Usually by the end of May the daytime high temps of March become the nightime low temps. . .
Have a good day, ya'll!
Swine Influenza (Flu)
Swine Flu website last updated April 29, 2009, 9:45 PM ET
U.S. Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection
(As of April 29, 2009, 11:00 AM ET) States # of laboratory confirmed cases Deaths
Arizona 1
California 14
Indiana 1
Kansas 2
Massachusetts 2
Michigan 2
Nevada 1
New York 51
Ohio 1
Texas 16 1
TOTAL COUNTS 91 cases 1 death
International Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection
See: World Health Organization
The outbreak of disease in people caused by a new influenza virus of swine origin continues to grow in the United States and internationally. Today, CDC reports additional confirmed human infections, hospitalizations and the nation%u2019s first fatality from this outbreak. The more recent illnesses and the reported death suggest that a pattern of more severe illness associated with this virus may be emerging in the U.S. Most people will not have immunity to this new virus and, as it continues to spread, more cases, more hospitalizations and more deaths are expected in the coming days and weeks.
CDC has implemented its emergency response. The agency%u2019s goals are to reduce transmission and illness severity, and provide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by the new virus. Yesterday, CDC issued new interim guidance for clinicians on how to care for children and pregnant women who may be infected with this virus. Young children and pregnant women are two groups of people who are at high risk of serious complications from seasonal influenza. In addition, CDC%u2019s Division of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) continues to send antiviral drugs, personal protective equipment, and respiratory protection devices to all 50 states and U.S. territories to help them respond to the outbreak. The swine influenza A (H1N1) virus is susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC will provide updated guidance and new information as it becomes available.
thanks :)
Here are some links. Some of the solid blog dancers may not like them, though. :)
link1
link2
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Veracruz has demanded that Smithfield’s Granjas Carroll release documents about its waste-handling practices. Smithfield Foods reportedly declined to comment on the request, saying that it would ‘not respond to rumours.’8
A research compilation by Ed Harris reported, ‘According to residents, the company denied responsibility for the outbreak and attributed the cases to ‘flu.’ However, a municipal health official stated that preliminary investigations indicated that the disease vector was a type of fly that reproduces in pig waste and that the outbreak was linked to the pig farms.’9 That would imply that the entire Swine Flu scare might have originated from the PR spin doctors of the world’s largest industrial pig factory farm operation, Smithfield Foods.
The Vera Cruz-based newspaper La Marcha blames Smithfield’s Granjos Carroll for the outbreak, highlighting inadequate treatment of massive quantities of animal waste from hog production.10
Understandably the company is perhaps more than a bit uncomfortable with the sudden attention. The company, which supplies the McDonald’s and Subway fast-food chains, was fined $12.3 million in the United States 1997 for violating the Clean Water Act. Perhaps they are in a remote tiny Mexican rural area enjoying a relatively lax regulatory climate where they need not worry about being cited for violations of any Clean Water Act.
71F and a bit humid here in Charleston
BEST DEFENSE AGAINST THE FLU
SOAP AND WATER
Mexico - many poor areas of Mexico do not have the water facilities that we enjoy here in the United States
Flu of 1918 - Again, many folks did not have running water in their homes. Here in rural South Carolina, as I was growing up, it was not uncommon to have a well and hand pump for water.
This flu is contracted by either
- You have picked up the germ on your hand, have not washed it, and rubbed your eyes, nose or eaten with your hands. Has to get to the respiratory tract.
- Someone coughs in your face.
(If anyone has information that this flu is contracted in any other way - now is the time to speak)
CHILDREN - This is where it gets scary,
Take the typical 5 year old.
- Short attention span. This child will not remember to wash hands frequently or that he should not rub nose and eyes.
-How do you keep a five year old from trading snot with his best friend while playing?
Any suggestions folks?
PREPARATION:
Incubation period - Week? 2 Weeks? - Not sure - so put respiratory hygiene into effect, even though you may not have seen flu in your community. (Should be doing this anyway - cut down on colds)
Emergency Supplies -
I was out of commission for about 5 days in January. Trouble was I had 3 days worth of grocery supplies. (Yikes! - I had to cannibalize my hurricane shelf)
So as Ossqss and others have noted, we should always have supplies available, and perhaps augment during periods of potential threats. As Patrap has said BE PREPARED.
It is interesting that this flu was created because of the way humans treat animals. I do hope this raises awareness.
Mirror Site
Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
227. vortfix
At the very least animal waste should be disposed of properly. That is a given. I believe that most countries have a process for monitoring animals for swine flu.
USA Companies that exploit cheap labor and circumvent safe food procedures, should be held accountable by USA standards. That means prosecution/fines. (Not sure if there has been enough time to determine that Smithfield is culpable in this outbreak)
Anyway, pertinent to Dr. Masters' blog is the news article on MSN page today about the NYC sized chunk from the Wilkins Ice Bridge that broke off April 5th. Link
This is so False and so misleading.......OMG! You have no clue what you just said. Apparently ignorance is what your are Claiming for yourself....WOW!
Canada, 30.04.2009 03:41:45
Three new cases of swine flu have been diagnosed in British Columbia, including the first case the province has seen of a person contracting the virus from another person, health officials confirmed Wednesday. The news comes just as the spread of swine flu around the world has prompted the World Health Organization to raise the pandemic alert to Level 5 on a six-level scale, indicating increased human-to-human spread of the virus.
In fact, it's a my finger tips...by Melvin Berger
Harper Trophy publisher
Have this book since my eldest (he's 22. I keep it on hand for my little visitors......
The illustrations made it easy for the "little ones" to understand the concept of germs & virus, w/out scaring them -- informs them & then they understand why you don't touch people's snot, spit.... and not to put your hands in mouth, nose, ears and eyes.... and the value of hand washing
At a news conference Wednesday afternoon, Miami Dade County health officials said sending the samples to a state lab is an early step in the diagnosis of swine flu, and they stressed that no cases have been confirmed in Florida.
I agree w/you Vort.... it's still a rumour mill, but it also provides an opportunity to look at "dirty places"....
Corporate Farming is plagued with "dirty, dirty" doesn't matter who owns 'em, and with their huge profits...especially when they open factories in foreign countries where they are not subject to any "review" you would think they would set an example and run Pristine Operations.......
Quote:
"The biggest question, right now, is this: how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start?
It is possible that the full clinical spectrum of this disease goes from mild illness to severe disease. We need to continue to monitor the evolution of the situation to get the specific information and data we need to answer this question.
From past experience, we also know that influenza may cause mild disease in affluent countries, but more severe disease, with higher mortality, in developing countries."
I have to say, if I were a parent today, I would begin to try to figure a way to keep children at home, should it become necessary. Child Care Centers are scary places. I asked a person who works in Child Care Licensing, what is most effective for washing down items, furniture etc. Answer bleach and water. Need to make a new batch each day.
From what our Regional Health Director said last night on the news..and from what i have read in the net. They are far more worried about round 2 and 3 then they are about this one.
This flu strain like all flu strains will run for two or three cycles over the next two years. The biggest concern is fall/winter 2009 and spring 2010.
With the mutations it will undergo in that time period.. it could easily get much much worse.
The British Health Organization seems to agree also
Q. Could it die away over the summer?
A. Yes – but only temporarily. Swine flu has struck at the end of the winter flu season in the northern hemisphere. Flu normally dies away in summer, only to return the following winter. The reasons are thought to be linked with the increase in ultraviolet light from longer days, which destroys the virus, and the fact that people spend less time huddled together indoors where it is easier to transmit the infection. The worry is that if it subsides over the summer it could return with a vengeance next winter, in a more virulent form. Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, London, said yesterday that up to 40 per cent of the population in Britain could be infected.
I do not know, but it is known that Smithfield keeps way too many animals in close quarters, and they do not dispose of the waste properly. If they do trace the swine flu back to Smithfield, then they should be held accountable in some way. Also, Mexico is somewhat at fault for not having more stringent regulations.
Bingo... give the man the Teddy Bear... people talk the talk... until they have to pull their wallet out.
Get off your bash Obama campaign... read and learn something instead.
Q Do masks provide protection against swine flu?
A Yes, but probably not to the person wearing them. They help stop the virus being expelled from the mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing, but are much less effective at protecting the wearer from a virus picked up on the hands or circulating in the air. Wearing a mask thus becomes a public-spirited act.
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