A cautionary tale--the PETM

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT en Abril 29, 2009

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One frequently hears comments like, "Earth has had many periods of warmth far exceeding the warmth of today's climate, so we should not be surprised if the current warming of the globe is a natural phenomena". This view is especially prevalent among geologists, who take a very long view of history and are among the most skeptical scientists regarding the reality of human-caused climate change. It is true that Earth's past has had many episodes of natural global warming that we can learn from. But the greatest natural global warming episode of the past 65 million years, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) event of 55 million years ago, presents us with a cautionary tale of how massive releases of greenhouse gases--similar in scale to what humans are now producing--may cause extreme warming of the climate.

Earth's orbital variations--the most common form of natural global warming
The most common cause of natural global warming over time has been changes in Earth's orbit. Three oscillations in Earth's orbit with periods of 26,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years (called Milankovitch cycles) cause ice ages to be triggered when summer sunshine at 65°N reaches a minimum. The reduced sunlight over Canada, Siberia, and Scandinavia allows winter snowfall to persist through the summer, and thus accumulate and build Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. There isn't enough land in the Southern Hemisphere to allow large, land-based ice sheets to build there, so it is the growth and decay of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets that has controlled the timing of ice ages and warm inter-glacial periods over the past three million years. Earth's orbit is currently in a phase where the amount of sunlight falling at 65°N is changing very little. Thus, the primary mechanism for past natural global warming events is not to blame for the current warming. According to the "official" word on climate, the 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the amount of sunlight falling at 65°N is expected to change little over the next 30,000 years, and "it is very unlikely that the Earth would naturally enter into another ice age for at least 30,000 years".

Pumping huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere coincided with extreme climate warming during the PETM
Natural global warming has also occurred in the past due to changes in solar brightness, and natural emissions of natural carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (methane is the primary component of the natural gas we use to heat our homes, is a potent greenhouse gas 20 - 25 more effective at heating the Earth than than CO2, with a lifetime of about 9 years in the atmosphere before reacting with the OH radical to form CO2). I discussed one example of natural global warming in my previous post--volcanoes have emitted enough CO2 over time to account for a large portion of Earth's natural greenhouse effect. However, volcanoes only put about 1 - 3% as much CO2 per year into the atmosphere as human activities do. What, then, does Earth's past tell us about what might happen if we dump 100 times more carbon than volcanoes do into the atmosphere, over a period of a few centuries?

The end of Earth's Paleocene era, 55 million years ago, was a time of great warmth on planet Earth. Subtropical vegetation grew in Greenland and Patagonia, and crocodiles swam off the coast of Greenland. Sea surface temperatures at the North Pole were a toasty 64°F (18°C). Tropical palm forests in northern Wyoming played host to early primates. Despite the fact that the sun put out 0.5% less energy than today (equivalent to a global temperature that would be 0.5°C cooler), there was no polar ice cap or Greenland Ice Sheet. The higher temperatures of that era were probably due to high carbon dioxide levels of 560 - 600 ppm. This is far higher than the 280 ppm seen in the 1800s, and the 383 ppm as of 2009. The continents had a different configuration due to continental drift, and this may have kept the world warmer as well.


Figure 1. Global temperature change (right scale) as inferred from oxygen-18 isotope measurements (left scale) from fossil ocean microorganisms (Zachos et al., 2001). Oxygen-18 levels in these fossils are proportional to the temperatures of the era when the fossils were formed. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (labeled PETM) shows a sharp upward spike in temperatures occurred. This spike is likely to be understated by a factor of 2 - 4 due to coarse sampling and averaging in this data set. For more detail, see the Wikipedia entry for the PETM.

Then, 55 million years ago, the fossil record shows that an extraordinary drop in the ratio of carbon-13 to carbon-12 occurred, indicating that a massive amount of "light" carbon with low levels of the carbon-13 isotope was emitted into the atmosphere in a very short amount of time--just 500 - 20,000 years. The most likely source of carbon-13 depleted carbon would have been methane from ocean sediments or land vegetation. If it was methane, about 1,000 - 2,000 gigatons of carbon would have had to be injected into the atmosphere, in order to account for the observed fossil deposits. For comparison, the total amount of carbon in today's atmosphere, primarily as CO2, is a factor of two or three less--about 810 gigatons. The fossil record shows that extreme climatic warming occurred nearly simultaneously with this massive release of carbon into the atmosphere. Global average temperatures rose 9°F (5°C) in a geological instant--1,000 - 10,000 years (Sluijs et al., 2007). Average sea surface temperatures at the North Pole reached 74°F (23°C). The warmth lasted 120,000 - 220,000 years before weathering of silicate rocks was able to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere and return the climate to its former state. This was the largest global warming event since the time of the dinosaurs, 65 million year ago (Moran et al., 2006). The resulting impact on Earth's climate was so severe that a new geological era was born--the Eocene. The warming event has been dubbed the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), since it occurred at the boundary of these two eras. Ocean circulation patterns changed radically during the first 5,000 years of the PETM (Nunes and Norris, 2006), and the deep oceans became 11°F (6°C) warmer, severely depleted in oxygen, and more acidic. A mass extinction of deep ocean microorganisms resulted, though the exact reasons remain unclear. The PETM did not cause mass extinctions on land of plants and animals, but a major turnover in mammalian life occurred at that time. Many of today's major mammalian orders emerged in the wake of the PETM. The new geological era it ushered in, the Eocene, is named for the Greek goddess of the dawn (Eos), since this was the dawn of the era of large mammals.

It is extremely difficult to explain the warmth of the PETM without assuming that the huge amount of "light" carbon pumped into the atmosphere created intense warming due to the greenhouse effect. The controversial question is, how did this carbon get into the atmosphere? Did PETM happen because of the greenhouse effect from all the carbon added to the atmosphere, or did the carbon get released into the atmosphere in response to climatic warming from another cause (and boosting the warming that was already occurring?) The mystery is a difficult one to unravel, since our vision of what happened so long ago is very fuzzy. A recent high-resolution study of ocean sediments laid down in New Jersey during the PETM (Sluijs et al., 2007) argued that about half of the PETM warming occurred 1,000 - 1,500 years before the 1,000 - 2,000 gigatons of "light" carbon got injected into the atmosphere. The authors theorize that global warming due to some other cause heated up the deep oceans enough to release methane stored in the form of methane hydrate, a form of methane 'ice' that forms in cold bottom water under great pressures and is widely distributed and plentiful in sediments on the outer edges of continental margins. The methane released was the huge pulse of "light" carbon seen in the fossil record, and this methane warmed the planet even further via the greenhouse effect. The authors argued that the warming that triggered the PETM could have been due to a variation in Earth's orbit, or due to a pulse of greenhouse gases that didn't happen to be enriched in light carbon. A wide variety of other theories abound. Dickens (2004) theorizes that a volcano in the North Atlantic erupted through a huge fossil fuel deposit in overlying ocean sediments, releasing massive amounts of the stored carbon into the atmosphere. Pancost et al. 2006 found evidence that the warming of the PETM significantly increased as carbon stored on land in wetlands was released in the form of methane. Huber (2008) argued that temperatures got so hot during the PETM that a huge die-off of tropical vegetation resulted, creating vast deserts and putting thousands of gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, further increasing temperatures.


Figure 2. Photographs of methane hydrate as nodules, veins, and laminae in sediment. Intense warming of the deep oceans during the PETM may have released huge quantities of methane gas from ocean sediments with methane hydrates in them. Image credit: United States Geological Survey.

Computer climate models fail to reproduce the PETM
A big concern about the climate models that we are using to forecast climate for the coming century is that they do a poor job of reproducing the climate of the Eocene, and, in particular, the PETM. These models fail to reproduce the high temperatures observed in the polar regions relative to the tropics during the PETM. However, in the words of climate scientists Daniel Schrag and Richard Alley in a 2004 article in Nature, "It would be a grave mistake to take these lessons from ancient climates as a reason to disregard the projections from climate models." If the observations of the climate in this far-ago era are correct, the reason that the climate models fail to correctly simulate this past climate is because the climate is more sensitive to CO2 than believed. There is a missing "feedback" causing increased warming near the pole that the models are missing. Sluijs et al. (2006) theorize that the models may be missing how hurricanes transport heat to the poles, or how polar stratospheric clouds may act to trap heat over the poles. In short, the failure of the models to correctly simulate the PETM may mean that our current estimates of the amount of global warming likely over the coming century (1.1°C - 6.4°C) are far too low. The other possibility, mentioned by Huber (2008) is that the models are correct, but the temperatures inferred for the tropics from the fossil record are in error. This wouldn't be the first time that measurements were found to be in error and the models vindicated.

Comparison with today
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, humans have pumped about 500 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere. There are about 5,000 gigatons in the planet's coal reserves, while oil and traditional natural gas deposits are hundreds of gigatons each (Rogner, 1997). Given that humans are now adding about 10 gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere each year (Global Carbon Project, 2007), we will surpass the 1,000 gigaton mark 50 years from now at current emission rates. This is at the lower end of the 1,000 - 2,000 gigatons of carbon that are estimated to have been added to the atmosphere during the PETM--the most extreme natural global warming event of the past 65 million years. Though our view of events so long ago is very fuzzy, the PETM should serve as a cautionary tale. We cannot rule out the possibility that continuation of our current rates of fossil fuel burning will lead to an extreme climatic warming event like the PETM. In particular, we need to keep a careful eye on the huge reservoirs of methane hydrate stored in marine sediments (500 - 10,000 gigatons of carbon) and stored in permafrost (7.5 - 400 gigatons). Continued warming of the planet could trigger substantial releases of these massive reservoirs of greenhouse gases, leading to a repeat of the PETM event. However, a 2008 study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2008) concludes that there is currently no evidence that a sudden catastrophic release of methane stored in ocean sediments or in permafrost will happen over the next century. It should take at least a century for global warming to penetrate the deep oceans and permafrost regions containing these significant reservoirs of methane hydrates. The study concludes, "Catastrophic release of methane to the atmosphere appears very unlikely in the near term (e.g., this century)...Although the prospect of a catastrophic release of methane to the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic climate change over the next century appears very unlikely based on current knowledge, many of the processes involved are still poorly understood, and developing a better predictive capability requires further work. On a longer time scale, methane release from hydrate reservoir is likely to be a major influence in global warming over the next 1,000 to 100,000 years". So, the bottom line is: don't expect global warming to be able to cause huge releases of methane hydrates in the coming century, such as may have occurred during PETM. But it is wise to ponder that a release of greenhouse gases similar in magnitude to what we are doing now coincided with the most extreme global warming event of the last 65 million years. We should not be surprised if our human greenhouse gas emissions cause a similar massive climate perturbation over the next 1,000 years, leading the dawn of a new geological era--the Anthropocene.

For more information
The best resource I found while researching this was a December 2008 report from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), titled, Abrupt Climate Change. Chapter 5, "Potential for Abrupt Changes in Atmospheric Methane" [1.3 Mb] was the relevant chapter.

References
Archer, D., 2007, "Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change", Biogeosciences, 4, 521544,.

Dickens, G.R., 2004, "Hydrocarbon-driven warming", Nature 42, 429, pp513-515, 3 June 2004.

Huber, M., 2008, "A Hotter Greenhouse?", Science 321, no. 5887, pp. 353-354, DOI: 10.1126/science.1161170

Moran, et al., 2006, "The Cenozoic palaeoenvironment of the Arctic Ocean", Nature 441, 601-605 (1 June 2006) | doi:10.1038/nature04800.

Nunes, F. and R.D. Norris, 2006, "Abrupt reversal in ocean overturning during the Paleocene/Eocene warm period", Nature 439 (7072): 603. doi:10.1038/nature04386

Pancost, R.D., et al., 2006, "Increased terrestrial methane cycling at the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum", Nature 449, 332-335 (20 September 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06012

Rogner, H.-H, 1997, "An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources", Annu. Rev. Energy Environ., 22, 217-262.

Sluijs, A., et al., 2006, "Subtropical Arctic Ocean temperatures during the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum", Nature 441, 610-613 (1 June 2006) | doi:10.1038/nature04668

U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp.

Zachos, J. C., U. Rohl, S.A. Schellenberg, A. Sluijs, D.A. Hodell, D.C. Kelly, E. Thomas, M. Nicolo, I. Raffi, L.J. Lourens, H. McCarren, and D. Kroon, 2005, "Rapid Acidification of the Ocean During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum", Science, 308, 1611-1615

Portlight.org relief walk in Destin, FL a big success
Over the weekend, the portlight.org disaster relief charity ran a highly successful relief walk in Destin, FL, to raise money for the disaster relief. The theme of this walk was to raise relief money not only for people, but for pets as well, with 25% of the money raised intended for taking care of pets injured or abandoned during disasters. As detailed in the portlight.org blog, the pet theme was a great way to raise money, and about $5000 was raised. The other relief walks this year raised $1500 in New Orleans and $542 in Kissimmee. Many more walks are planned this year, with the next one being this weekend (May 2) in Summerville, SC. Portlight also helped out with disaster relief operations for the South Carolina fires yesterday.



Jeff Masters

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1294. Lancia
There are so many comments that my appreciation for the PETM discussion may get lost in the shuffle. Anyway, it can be taken in context of the Triad arguments.
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New Blog
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Good morning

I posted about this feature just last week and today it is still there and looking much better.

Shear has dropped to a low 10 to 20 knots in this area and the 850 mb vort signature is still present. Quikscat missed it this morning.

Something to watch over the next couple of days

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This article is almost amusing--you mean we are supposed to worry about global warming based on events you conjecture happened 55 million years ago? Where and what is the evidence that proves the assertions you make about what occurred 55 million years ago? I love your use of the word that the warming then was "probably" due to higher carbon dioxide levels--that is a hole in your argument that is big enough to drive the proverbial truck through. Please enlighten us as to what you base your statement upon that such warming was "probably" caused by high carbon dioxide levels? Is it because the temperatures were higher (or in other words, circular reasoning)?. If you expect us to drastically alter our lives and standard of living because of global warming today, you will need more than the bald assertion that global warming 55 million years ago was "probably" caused by increased CO2. If the case is so strong, you should have powerful evidence of what transpired 55 million years ago--but you obviously don't. You'd rather engage in speculation and claims about "probable" causes of what may have transpired eons ago. If you can't do better than this, you should keep this drivel to yourself. We know from the relatively recent past (13th century AD) that the climate was much warmer than it is today. We also know that this warming was not caused by human production of CO2. So pray tell, what caused this warming?--please enlighten us with your speculation on this period.
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1289. vortfix
The severe weather threat continues.....



Photobucket


Current Convective Watches



1288. vortfix
Good morning!

It's been a sloppy commute this morning for a lot of folks along the upper Gulf coast.
Several tornado warnings and thunderstorms in the rainy mix as well:



Photobucket


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
510 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-041700-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
510 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM
CDT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI FOR THE POTENTIAL FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE HIGH WINDS WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. SOME
SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.



College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Statements have been issued from the following NWS Service Weather Stations:
NEW ORLEANS LA
MOBILE AL
JACKSON MS
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Almost 8am and 76.1F, 93% humidity.

I see the rain on radar at the Midland GA-SC border. Will this make it to coast? WU gives us a 30% chance of precipitation.

Weather has been great for visitors to Charleston.
Sounds of the City:

(clop, clop, clop) 'Behind us are the S.O.B.'s. People who live South of Broad. We are now where the S.N.O.B.'s live, Slightly North of Broad' (clop, clop, clop)

(woman on a cell phone) 'The kids are going to do a ghost tour. We're going drinking.'

(couple with camera) 'Umpph.... !@#$%, You would think they could have fixed these !@#$% sidewalks. Same !@#$% ones Scarlett and Rhett walked on. Oh...look, Sarah .... Umpph... !@#$%'
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Surface Troughs Everywehere/Tropical Storm Dante floods the Philippines.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1284. RTLSNK
65*F in Macon Georgia this morning
94% humidity, partly cloudy sky
Chance of precipitation this morning - 100%

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The pattern shows a mai hurricane.
Going to be a very busy saison.
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1280. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FKPQ30 RJTD 040600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090504/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: KUJIRA
NR: 7
PSN: N1625 E12830
MOV: ENE 12KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 04/1200Z N1640 E12930
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 04/1800Z N1650 E13030
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 05/0000Z N1650 E13135
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 05/0600Z N1655 E13230
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 75KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090504/1200Z =
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1279. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TYPHOON KUJIRA (CAT 3)
15:00 PM JST May 4 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Kujira (970 hPa) located at 16.4N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving east-northeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.9N 132.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 19.2N 136.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 24.2N 141.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
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1278. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
142
TCNA21 RJTD 040600
CCAA 04060 47644 KUJIRA(0901) 01164 11285 12244 245// 90612=
CHAN-HOM(0902) 03109 11124 13144 230// 90304=

6:00 AM UTC May 4
TY KUJIRA (0901)
16.4N 128.5E
Dvorak Intensity T4.5

TS CHAN-HOM (0902)
10.9N 112.4E
Dvorak Intensity T3.0

---
Well looks like a typhoon watch/warning will issued for Japan's southeastern islands.
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1277. peejodo
Quoting TampaSpin:
Whats wrong with this picture? There is a major void of quakes along the Pacific ConUS and Canada Coastline all the way to Alaska. Something big will be coming in my opinion.



I know I'm 2days late getting to you about your observation. But that nasty old word "work" had me busy. (sure not complaining with the economy the way it is)
My question is, Does anyone know where to look to compare this lack of activity to 1964 when Anchorage, as well as other areas in Alaska, were blasted with their earthquake?
I was working in CA at that time and if memory serves me right, the newscasters of the day were mentioning a "calm period" for earthquake activity.
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1276. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
1273. weatherblog 12:39 AM AST on May 04, 2009

Yea....In 2008 all factors were clear-cut and point to an active cape verde season but not so much the case this year. I don't see this as much of an hindrance to overall activity as in almost every hurricane season, tropical cyclogenesis west of 50W accounts for a majority of a season overall activity.


so.... could be dangerous for the antilles
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1273. weatherblog 12:39 AM AST on May 04, 2009

Yea....In 2008 all factors were clear-cut and point to an active cape verde season but not so much the case this year. I don't see this as much of an hindrance to overall activity as in almost every hurricane season, tropical cyclogenesis west of 50W accounts for a majority of a season overall activity.

Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
i smell other troll too add to my Ignore
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting Weather456:
Though weak warm anomalies in the Pacific may develop the effects will lag months behind. 2004 had a pattern similar to the 2009 upcoming season with strong pressures early in the season transition to weak pressures during the peak months. The ENSO pattern may also be similar. I do not think this year's cape verde season will be as strong as last year with activity concentrated west of 50W due to below average rainfall across Sahel among other factors. There is a strong correlation between western Sahel rainfall patterns and cape verde hurricanes.


Yeah, I agree with you. Last season had much more impressive waves up to this point than we have so far this year. Also, last year had above average SST's off of Africa and this year they are somewhat below average. I do expect this year to be active but because of those factors, we will likely not have a Bertha in early July like last year.

The main development region, however, looks to have above average SST's (compared to last year's average), so I could expect tropical waves could take a while to develop and then blow up near the antilles.

In case people have forgotten, 2005 had only one or two cape verde storms and it was the most active season in record (and the most destructive).
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1272. Skyepony (Mod)
If you consider the cape verde-locust connection, then expect more cape verdes than tail of a front born storms this year. Last year the locust swarms were bad. With spring well under way the locust this year are expected to be worse.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Remove your comment quick, remember this is Drakoen blog's and you cannot post without his permission and how dare post that information. Remember Drakoen is the only one permitted to do so.




WHAT???
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Though weak warm anomalies in the Pacific may develop the effects will lag months behind. 2004 had a pattern similar to the 2009 upcoming season with strong pressures early in the season transition to weak pressures during the peak months. The ENSO pattern may also be similar. I do not think this year's cape verde season will be as strong as last year with activity concentrated west of 50W due to below average rainfall across Sahel among other factors. There is a strong correlation between western Sahel rainfall patterns and cape verde hurricanes.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1268. Drakoen
.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Hard to find beaches in the mountains.


Its not hard to find that in Hati...
Photobucket
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you should put your emphisis in a map!!!..lol
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1265. Drakoen
Quoting stillwaiting:



hmmmm......polar bears and eskimo's....lol


Great way to go into hypothermic shock...
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Quoting Drakoen:


Who doesn't love to swim in -2 degree Celsius waters...



hmmmm......polar bears and eskimo's....lol
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1263. Drakoen
Quoting stillwaiting:
As are most of the volcano's in alaska(located along the coast)...so?????


I'll put my my emphasis back on in the mountains.
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As are most of the volcano's in alaska(located along the coast)...so?????
Member Since: Octubre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
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1260. Drakoen
Quoting stillwaiting:


Actually Drak,that volcano is not that far from the coast....bro!!!


Who doesn't love to swim in -2 degree Celsius waters...
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Quoting Drakoen:


Hard to find beaches in the mountains.


Actually Drak,that volcano is not that far from the coast....bro!!!
Member Since: Octubre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting Drakoen:
I think a weak El Nino is a real possibility but i don't see it being a season-squasher.


The Pacific is warming steadily. Could see 12-14 NS and 6-8 hurricanes but anymore than that would surprise me. The key is early season development. If we have several frontal lows develop and become NS then the season is likely to be less active than last. If we see tropical waves develop out of the deep tropics then we could have some issues.
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1257. Drakoen
Quoting stillwaiting:
TS: what a difference between where we live and that picture......not many beaches there,lol...


Hard to find beaches in the mountains.
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TS: what a difference between where we live and that picture......not many beaches there,lol...
Member Since: Octubre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting futuremet:
will be an interesting season nonetheless


I Concur!
The SST's look similar to last year but The Set-Up upstairs looks familiar to 2004.Im thinking we will see an active season.
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cool pic.

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will be an interesting season nonetheless
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Quoting searcher14:
JEFF ** MUST READ ** NEW INSTRUCTIONS HAVE JUST COME IN ***


Environmental issues consistently rate near the bottom of public worry, according to many public opinion polls. A Pew Research Center poll released in January found global warming last among 20 voter concerns; it trailed issues like addressing moral decline and decreasing the influence of lobbyists. %u201CWe know why it%u2019s lowest,%u201D said Mr. Perkowitz, a marketer of outdoor clothing and home furnishings before he started ecoAmerica, whose activities are financed by corporations, foundations and individuals. %u201CWhen someone thinks of global warming, they think of a politicized, polarized argument. When you say %u2018global warming,%u2019 a certain group of Americans think that%u2019s a code word for progressive liberals, gay marriage and other such issues.%u201D

The answer, Mr. Perkowitz said in his presentation at the briefing, is to reframe the issue using different language. %u201CEnergy efficiency%u201D makes people think of shivering in the dark. Instead, it is more effective to speak of %u201Csaving money for a more prosperous future.%u201D In fact, the group%u2019s surveys and focus groups found, it is time to drop the term %u201Cthe environment%u201D and talk about %u201Cthe air we breathe, the water our children drink.%u201D

%u201CAnother key finding: remember to speak in TALKING POINTS aspirational language about shared American ideals, like freedom, prosperity, independence and self-sufficiency while avoiding jargon and details about policy, science, economics or technology,%u201D said the e-mail account of the group%u2019s study.

Mr. Perkowitz and allies in the environmental movement have been briefing officials in Congress and the administration in the hope of using the findings to change the terms of the debate now under way in Washington.


SEARCHER14**MUST READ**:When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
Member Since: Octubre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1249. cdo
El Nino over hyped just like La Nina is....
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Hades....have the coffee ready? I can't believe you stay up so long! Talk about dedicated!!!
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Quoting Drakoen:


what view?


fixed it,the ISS!!
Member Since: Octubre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1246. hahaguy
Shift change.
Member Since: Agosto 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Appears time for the early morning crew to get ready to take over!
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1244. JRRP
i don´t like the ignore list.... i just don´t read the things in that i am not interested
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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