9th warmest February on record; La Niña conditions continue but weaken
Global temperatures in February remained about where they've been the past year, with Earth recording its 9th warmest February on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. This past winter was the eighth warmest winter on record (December-February), and the January-February year-to-date period was also the eighth warmest. The most notable extreme February heat occurred February 7 in southern Australia. Many locations set new all-time hottest temperature records, including an all-time state record for Victoria when temperatures reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) in Hopetoun, shattering the previous record of 47.2°C (117.0°F) set in January 1939. The extreme heat was accompanied by very dry conditions that contributed to the development of deadly wildfires that killed 210 people. The most notable cold conditions for the winter of 2008/2009 occurred in the United Kingdom, which had its coldest winter since 1995/1996.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for the month of February 2009. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
A dry and warm February for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., February temperatures were the 27th warmest in the 114-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was very dry, ranking as the 8th driest February. New Jersey and Delaware had their driest February ever recorded. The winter of 2008/2009 (December - February) ranked as the 5th driest winter on record, and the year-to-date January - February period was the driest ever such period. Texas recorded its driest winter. Thanks to all the dry weather, the U.S. has only seen about 50% of normal tornado activity in 2009, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. On March 19, 2009, 21% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is unchanged from January.
La Niña conditions continue
La Niña conditions continued in the Eastern Pacific Ocean in February, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is continuing their La Niña Advisory. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. In addition, the atmospheric response typically associated with a La Niña must be observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures anomalies peaked at -1.1°C below average in the Niña 3.4 region during early January. It appears that La Niña has peaked, as ocean temperatures in the Niña 3.4 region have warmed to -0.4°C below average as of March 15. Nearly all the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region show that La Niña will dissipate between May - July 2009, and neutral conditions are expected for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Only three out of 16 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds, but that doesn't look like it will happen this year.
Expected impacts of the current La Niña conditions during during March - May 2009 inlude above-average precipitation over Indonesia, and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. Compared to the Northern Hemisphere winter, La Niña impacts over the United States are typically less pronounced. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include below-average precipitation across the southern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southwestern and south-central United States.
Sea ice extent
February 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest on record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and is currently near its annual maximum. The record February low was set in 2005. Since today is the Spring Equinox, the sun will rise at the North Pole, bringing 24-hour daylight and warming conditions that will begin melting Arctic sea ice.
Portlight Relief Walk this weekend
Saturday March 21 in New Orleans marks the inaugural event in a series of 18 fundraising Relief Walks sponsored by Portlight.org. A hearty thanks go to all the organizers and participants in this effort!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks for your's and stormjunkies and all ya'lls effort for us here as well..!
Melissa check my Web site out.....Boat, beach and tide section
So...
How many people actually were in attendance?
I counted four including the speaker.
Congrats to the first PORTLIGHT.ORG walk in New Orleans....... when I checked the Portlight blog -- I spied the nicest T-shirts...... w/ a 'cane, a WU LOGO!!!
Sometimes it's quality, not quantity, that's important.
Behave yourself- Wunderground (yeah, the site you're visiting right now) is a sponsor.
What happens if you change the base period to, say '71 to 2000? Or even better, '78 to 2007? Where are the places to find current anomalies relative to the most current 30 year period, which is usually the definition of climate?
I suppose that if I were able to choose the base period, I could make the current temps look either warmer or colder than the chosen base period.
COPENHAGEN -- Scientists are gloomy; economists are more upbeat. Such was the bottom line of an epic, three-day international congress of climate change experts that ended here yesterday.
Welcome to accountability. We use it a lot, but it tends to come on a lot quicker.
They've got our canal messed up too - Can't get boats in & out half the year, but the floods don't have any problem getting to us.
Hi Mom !
Great weather here, with the dry season looking to be finally established. But the winds are still north of east, and the Island is cool.
Went to the beach yesterday and never went into the water. It was too cold LOL. Strong wind coming into Maracas Bay almost due north was really cold.
For the first time in my life, I saw Maracas had been changed big-time by recent heavy seas. Lots of erosion, and the beach is "scalloped" rather than being a perfect curve of sand. Now, it is a series of small bays, with a 4 foot drop of eroded sand, exposing a lot of coconut roots and some rock.
Talked to the lifeguards on duty, they say that since Jan. the sea has been big, and they have been busy !
There were 3 days in Feb. when the inter-island ferry could not sail, due to the conditions. And those are big ferries.
Hope everyone is having a good Sunday.
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.
Looks like the weather has finally cleared up for Zoo and she is easy to find today :)
Hi Pottery, nice to see you. Orca - your fin must be a little better - see you are typing this morning.
Quite the interesting excerpt from the above link. I think someone needs to tell them, we have run out of ink printing money already this year in the USA. Interesting concept on migration, but I don't actually get the premise as to why they would want to come here. It would not be different than any other place under this hypothetical climate change senario. I guess I am glad they are just having protocol negotiations in Dec. and not really imposing real policy.
En guard !!
'Major migrations' will be part of social disruptions
As the congress wound down, members produced a list of six key conclusions that will be included in a report to U.N. decision-makers prior to December's climate change protocol negotiations in Copenhagen.
On climate trends, the conference noted: "Given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are becoming a reality. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts."
On social disruption, it said: "Societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2° C will be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and will increase the level of climate disruption for the remainder of the century."
Major migrations will be part of these potential social disruptions. On this topic, one of the conference's key speakers, John Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact and Research, proposed that rich countries accommodate future climate refugees on their soil according to their historical share of greenhouse gas emissions.
"So, if the USA produces 25 percent of emissions, it would have to accommodate 25 percent of the world's climate refugees," he said, to hearty applause from some conference participants.
Cheap pharmaceuticals always help :)
Americas Watchdog's Homeowners Consumer Center is leading a national investigation into what could be toxic imported Chinese dry wall that began showing up in the United States in 2001. Aside from Florida, and the eastern half of the U.S., the group has now found the imported Chinese dry wall in New Orleans & Southeast Louisiana.
Investigation into Toxic Chinese Sheetrock Drywall Goes National
Seems fair, if you create 25% of the problem, then you should be ready to assume 25% of the result.
Score Card
Canada 1
USA 0
(x¿x)
I hear ya its not to hot it's perfect lol
Oh oh.. not sure thats a game I should be playing while I am on drugs.
LMAO
accommodate 25 percent of the world's climate refugees
Perhaps a billion or so?
You get what you pay for :)
If you created 25%, then you get 25%. How could you possibly argue with that?
Score Card
Canada 2
USA 0
Hmmm your really trying to get me in trouble aren't you. Give KEH back his stir stick :)
I think it will be a quiet one...
Based on what?
There are enough questions as to the biases (both scientific and political) of the IPCC. Comments such as those and 'hearty applause' give the appearance of smug, self serving folks whose care for the environment is only exceed by their enjoyment in bashing the US. Not good for the cause.
119. Patrap Not surprised. What folks building/remodeling/restoring a house need now, is a list of companies where they can buy drywall NOT made in China.
Based on what has happened so far this year... NADA. BY this time in that last 2 years we had already had some action.. so far this year.. nothing.
We have had unusually cold weather in the GOM, and Surfmom even came close to snow.
I know, I can't back it up with fancy diagrams and charts, but thats the feeling I have.
Ossqss, borrowed your stir stick, get it back please... he seems intent on getting me in trouble.... we are suppose to use it on others... hehe not us
Not to bad.. the drugs they gave me that are shaped like a house, are very good :)
CYCLOBENZAPRINE, take one at bedtime..and have a great sleep.
Well for starters your correct about the cold air intrusions this winter season in the gulf but those waters have plenty of time to heat up before we get into cane season.The caribbean for example has got the head start this season as sea surface temps are already on the rise down there and the MDR region is also slightly warmer.Iam not one of seasonal predictions but the way iam seeing things shape up i think were going to be in for a pretty active season with neutral conditions around come the heart of the season.
Remember numbers predicted are not of any importance as the ones that hit land have the greatest impact.
Adrian
Orca, my question was two fold.
How do you get to be a refugee, and how many of them will there be? Do we get 25% of 100 or 1 billion? Then lets look at the motivation side of the house. The free lunch senario.
OK, no more stirring from me. Its time to fish and watch hockey simultaneously. ( the only multi-tasking I can actually do aside from Beer and pretzels) Go Pens !
Check it out at AKSnowLvr's blog
Hockey? who/where/when??
Yep pens vs flyers 12:30 lol
Dock side TV awaits. Wind chill problem here however. Current wind chill is 78, might need a sweater. (º¿ª) §
Lol gotta get the beer ready
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