Opinion polls of climate change
According to a 2007 Newsweek poll, 42% of Americans believe that "there is a lot of disagreement among climate scientists about whether human activities are a major cause" of global warming". I posed the same question to members of the wunderground community on Monday, and even higher 56% of them thought so. However, the results of a poll that appears in this week's edition of the journal EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, reveals that the public is misinformed on this issue. Fully 97% of the climate scientists who regularly publish on climate change agreed with the statement, "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures".
Figure 1. Response to the question, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" The general public data come from a 2008 Gallup poll (see http://www.gallup.com/poll/1615/Environment.aspx). Image credit: EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union.
The anonymous poll was performed in late 2008 by Peter Doran, University of Illinois at Chicago associate professor of earth and environmental sciences, along with former graduate student Maggie Kendall Zimmerman. Doran and Kendall Zimmerman sought the opinion of the most complete list of earth scientists they could find, contacting more than 10,200 experts at universities and government labs around the world listed in the 2007 edition of the American Geological Institute's Directory of Geoscience Departments. The 2-minute, two-question poll had 3146 responses (30.7% of those polled). Approximately 90% of the scientists who responded were from the U.S., and about 90% held a Ph.D. degree. Of these scientists, 5% were climate scientists who published more than 50% of all their peer-reviewed publications in the past five years on the subject of climate change. The authors noted that the survey included participants with well-documented dissenting opinions on global warming theory. Question #1 was, When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?" About 90% of all the scientists and 97% of the climate scientists said temperatures had risen. Question #2 was, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" About 82% of all the scientists agreed, and 97% (75 of 77) climate scientists agreed. This contrasts with the results of a recent Gallup poll that suggests only 58% of the general public would answer yes. Interestingly, petroleum geologists and meteorologists were among the biggest doubters in the new EOS poll, with only 47 and 64 percent, respectively, believing in human involvement.
In a press release on the study, author Peter Doran commented, "The petroleum geologist response is not too surprising, but the meteorologists' is very interesting," he said. "Most members of the public think meteorologists know climate, but most of them actually study very short-term phenomenon." He was not surprised, however, by the near-unanimous agreement by climate scientists. "They're the ones who study and publish on climate science. So I guess the take-home message is, the more you know about the field of climate science, the more you're likely to believe in global warming and humankind's contribution to it." Doran and Kendall Zimmerman conclude that "the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes. The challenge, rather, appears to be how to effectively communicate this fact to policy makers and to a public that continues to mistakenly perceive debate among scientists."
Commentary
The scientists most involved in assessing the current state of the climate are the most likely to have the "pulse of the planet"--a deep understanding of how the climate works and where we are headed. If 97% of these scientists believe in significant human impact on the climate, then it is probably so. Why is there such a disparity, then, between what they believe, and what the public and other scientists, such as petroleum geologists, believe? Dr. Ricky Rood has some excellent commentary on this issue in his latest wunderground Climate Change blog, and I offer these three reasons:
1) There are a few good climate scientists (3%) that believe humans are not significantly impacting the climate. One tends to hear the beliefs of this tiny minority a disproportionate amount. This is primarily because the fossil fuel industry pumps millions of dollars into PR campaigns to make sure you hear these dissenting views. That's not to say that these scientists are paid lackeys of the fossil fuel industry--that is not the case. These scientists' point of view happens to coincide with arguments that would protect the profits of the fossil fuel industry, so naturally the industry spends a lot of money making sure you hear these points of view. The fossil fuel industry PR campaigns also emphasize the contrarian views of a handful of non-publishing scientists working for private think tanks, who provide a distorted, non-objective view of climate change science (e.g., the attempt to hide summertime Arctic sea ice loss by quoting irrelevant statistics about wintertime global sea ice). These efforts have been highly successful in casting doubt on what is an overwhelming (though not unanimous) consensus among climate scientists. The fossil fuel industry PR campaigns are similar to the ones run by the cigarette industry to cast doubt on the harmfulness of smoking. "Doubt is our product," a cigarette executive once observed, "since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy." I recommend a reading of the 2008 book, "Doubt is Their Product", which discusses the many efforts by industry over the years to cast doubt on established scientific facts in order to protect industry profits.
2) The media contributes to the disproportionate coverage of the dissenting views, since one can make a news story more compelling by dramatizing conflict and giving equal weight to both sides.
3) Many people have a deep-seated belief in the relative insignificance of humans on a planetary scale. Geologists, who take the long view of time over geologic history, are particularly prone to this. Indeed, the planet is vast, and we are but tiny ants crawling upon its surface during a brief moment in geologic time. However, when one works regularly with the data, it becomes apparent that human activities are beginning to substantially impact weather and climate. When presented with facts contrary to ones beliefs, a good scientist will check the facts extra thoroughly to verify their validity, but then abandon those beliefs that don't fit the facts. The facts as accepted by 97% of our top climate scientists are that atmosphere is but a relatively thin, fragile layer of volatile gases beginning to show unmistakable changes due to the geometric explosion in human population over recent centuries. Those effects are only now beginning to be detectable, which is why human-caused global warming is so controversial in the public's eye. I predict that twenty years from now, climate change will be so obvious that the controversy regarding human responsibility will be gone.
Figure 2. The atmosphere viewed edge on from space. Tall thunderstorm clouds can be seen on the right side of the image, silhouetted against an orange layer of lower atmospheric gases (the troposphere) back-lit by the sun, just below the horizon. Above this layer is the clear blue of the stratosphere and the blackness of space. Seen from space, one can appreciate the thinness and potential vulnerability of the layer of gases that make up our atmosphere. Image credit: NASA Space Shuttle Flight 6 on 4 April 1983.
How representative is this poll?
The findings of another, more in-depth poll of scientists done in 2007 pretty much agreed with this week's Doran/Zimmerman poll, but were much more interesting. The 2007 poll, conducted by Fergus Brown, Roger Pielke, Sr., and James Annan, attempted to assess whether "a significant set of climate scientists agree or disagree with the perspective of the role of humans within the climate system as reported by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report". Out of the 1807 scientists in 53 countries who were contacted, 140 responded. Almost all respondents (at least 97%) concluded that the "human addition of CO2 into the atmosphere is an important component of the climate system and has contributed to some extent in recent observed global average warming". Among the other findings:
1) No scientists were willing to admit to the statement that global warming is a fabrication and that human activity is not having any significant effect on climate [0%].
2) The largest group of respondents (45-50%) agreed with the 2007 IPCC report.
3) A significant minority (15-20%) concluded that the IPCC overstated the role of the human role in affecting the climate.
4) A significant minority (15-20%) concluded that the IPCC understated the seriousness of the threat from human additions of CO2. Ten of the 140 respondents (7%) took the most pessimistic view that we are "seriously damaging the climate" and face "devastating consequences".
Here's the full text of the poll, which I've also put up on my latest wunderpoll to vote on, if you're a Weather Underground member:
Which one statement most nearly matches your personal opinion about the physical science basis of global warming, as exemplified by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 (WG1)? [If your personal opinion falls between two adjacent statements, please mark both]
1. There is no warming; it is a fabrication based on inaccurate/inappropriate measurement. Human activity is not having any significant effect on Climate. The data on which such assumptions are made is so compromised as to be worthless. The physical science basis of Anthropogenic Global Warming theory is founded on a false hypothesis.
2. Any recent warming is most likely natural. Human input of CO2 has very little to do with it. Solar, naturally varying water vapor, and similar variables can explain most or all of the climate changes. Projections based on Global Climate Models are unreliable because these are based on too many assumptions and unreliable data sets.
3. There are changes in the atmosphere, including added CO2 from human activities, but significant climate effects are likely to be all within natural limits. The 'scares' are exaggerations with a political motive. The undue emphasis on CO2 diverts attention away from other, important research on climate variability and change.
4. There is warming and the human addition of CO2 causes some of it, but the science is too uncertain to be confident about current attributions of the precise role of CO2 with respect to other climate forcings. The IPCC WG1 overestimates the role of CO2 relative to other forcings, including a diverse variety of human climate forcings.
5. The scientific basis for human impacts on climate is well represented by the IPCC WG1 report. The lead scientists know what they are doing. We are warming the planet, with CO2 as the main culprit. At least some of the forecast consequences of this change are based on robust evidence.
6. The IPCC WG1 is compromised by political intervention; I agree with those scientists who say that the IPCC WG1 is underestimating the problem. Action to reduce human emissions of CO2 in order to mitigate against serious consequences is more urgent than the report suggests. This should be done irrespective of other climate and environmental considerations.
7. The IPCC WG1 seriously understates the human influence on climate. I agree with those scientists who say that major mitigation responses are needed immediately to prevent catastrophic serious warming and other impacts projected to result from human emissions of CO2. We are seriously damaging the Earth's climate, and will continue to face devastating consequences for many years.
Figure 3. Results of the 2007 opinion poll by Fergus Brown, Roger Pielke, Sr., and James Annan of climate scientists, organized by question number (one to seven). In the USA, the mean response was 4.8, compared to 5.2 in all other countries, and 5.6 in EU countries.
Commentary
The majority of climate scientists polled believe the 2007 IPCC reports essentially "gets it right", which is in part why I like to refer to the IPCC report as representing "the official word" on climate. This report concluded that there was a greater than 90% chance that most of the observed global warming in the past 50 years was due to emission of greenhouse gases by human activity. However, there are substantial minorities that believe the IPCC underestimates or overestimates the potential impacts, and these voices need to be respected, as well.
Dr. Ricky Rood talks in greater depth on this issue in his latest wunderground Climate Change blog: "There are many thousands of scientists, and while large groups of individuals often share many like-minded values and beliefs, they are never in lockstep on the details of all aspects of their beliefs. It is not expected that in a community of thousands of scientists that there is a uniform chant of doctrine. This is especially true given the very nature of scientific investigation of an enormously complex system."
Other voices on climate scientist polls
Dr. James Annan's blog
Planet Gore
Realclimate.org.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Cyclone Ellie to hit Cairns
Article from: The Courier-Mail
February 01, 2009 11:46am
COASTAL communities off Cairns are bracing for Cyclone Ellie, which has formed 150km off the coast and is expected to make landfall early tomorrow morning.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns residents between Cairns and Ayr, near Townsville, to prepare for the Category 1 cyclone
Should be a Bumpy next 48 for some.
2009-01-31 17:25:50
Seismicity remains relatively unchanged since 3:30 PM AKST yesterday afternoon. It is still well above background.
Observers from the gas/observation flight today report continued melting at the summit area. Holes in the ice continue to grow exposing more steaming rock. Volcanic gases continue to be detected. Clear web camera views currently show a steam plume rising from the area of the 1989-90 lava dome.
http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/38574742.html
You are so very correct....HUM.....tomorrows runs will be interesting to watch...
We have the World Wide Weather Web available.
I always like to share what Im surfing.
That's what makes this site number one
..anything is possible..LOL
What's this I hear? Is there still hope? =)
I have updated my blog for the first time since August. Its on the the world's oldest person who they "found" in Uzbekistan, eventhough its not weather related it is still a good read...I felt inspired. I just copied the article from aol, but its there if you would like to read it. Link
What does the "PL" stand foron that map?...a little red dot in Canada.
LOL i don't know.......
I looked it up...ice pellets...sleet Link
"Heavy sleet is a relatively rare event defined as an accumulation of ice pellets covering the ground to a depth of ?" or more."
"depth of ?" ?
oh boy...I need to go to bed.
...I would have just used "SL" for sleet. Imagine if they used "IC" for Ice crystals/snow? Good nite, all.
It's Redoubt...but rebound sounds really similar.
LOL! I noticed that, too, but decided it wasn't worth correcting... :)
I am glued to the AVO website... we're only about 50-70 miles across the inlet as the crow flies, and we're hoping it just burps and quiets down. We certainly don't need any ash in the atmosphere...
I can answer this one the storm they are speaking of is the exact same one I mentioned earlier today.
I remember it because we havent seen a good snowfall here since it
Link
North Queensland braces for tropical cyclone Ellie
Article from: AAP
February 01, 2009 02:47pm
NORTH Queensland is battening down for a tropical cyclone expected to cross the coast tomorrow.
Premier Anna Bligh said there had been extensive rain in communities between Ayr and Cairns, which could lead to flash flooding.
The category one cyclone, called Ellie, is expected to cross the coast about 6am (AEST) at Cardwell, Ms Bligh said.
"I encourage everybody living in the region to take the necessary cyclone precautions, and particularly that your radio has batteries, and that you are listening to the regular updates that will give you plenty of warning about the effect and likely course of the cyclonic activity," she said in Townsville.
Ms Bligh recognised the state budget could also take a hit should cyclone damage eventuate.
"We do have contingencies for these sorts of activities, we would be assisted by the Commonwealth Government, but I certainly hope that tropical cyclone Ellie is a fizzer and that she blows herself out before she gets across the coast tomorrow morning."
Flood hit Nth Qld on cyclone alert
Queensland could be facing another cyclone within days with the weather bureau keeping a close eye on a tropical low in the Coral Sea.
The system is sitting just off the coast of Cairns in far North Queensland. It is adding to the flooding rains that may keep isolated communities cut off for another six weeks.
It has been well over a decade since the state's northwest has received such a drenching of rain.
Last month Mount Isa's main dam was just 17 per cent full but now it is overflowing.
Bridges have been cut, roads are closed and the weather bureau says there is still more rain on the way.
Flood warnings are in place for 12 river systems in North Queensland.
The State Government says it has people on the ground and on stand-by in case the situation worsens.
- ABC
Ambulance officers in Adelaide say today could bring a repeat of yesterday's high number of heat-related deaths.
Six deaths have already been recorded in the three hours to 11:00am (ACDT) today.
Yesterday 24 people died across the metropolitan area.
The state duty manager for the South Australian Ambulance Service, Michael Perry, says a high number of fatalities are expected again today.
"We've noticed pretty much the same sort of pattern as yesterday where we've had a similar sort of work load as far as unexpected and unfortunate deaths are concerned," he said.
"We've recorded a total of six so far this morning in about a three-hour period, believe it or not."
Meanwhile the State Government says it has told health officials to ask all GPs to contact their vulnerable patients as the heatwave continues.
Premier Mike Rann says the state's vulnerable people are being monitored closely.
"The Minister for Families and Comminutes has told me that her officials are monitoring about 50,000 South Australians through the state's domiciliary care network," he said.
As for climate change: I find it hard to believe that people can categorically deny human affect on a global scale. It shouldn't take a rocket scientist to see how we have reshaped many natural systems. Again, the ripple effect. We should have learned something of this during the great depression and the dust bowl days. It was due to our poor understanding of plowing with the contours of the Earth that led to that disaster. You can't put that much dust into the air without it clouding somewhere else and decreasing the temperature. You can't burn forests on a large scale without the smoke drifting and staying adrift in the atmosphere. Similar effects are seen with volcanoes. So, certainly man has an effect. We are the top of the food chain. What we do about it now is a more urgent debate. To that issue, I am less certain that a global response can be made until we can all agree that everyone, no matter their race, religion, or sexual preference, should be allowed to live on this planet. Getting past our history of violence toward our neighbors and then maybe we can make progress elsewhere.
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLIE, CATEGORY ONE
3:50 PM EST February 1 2009
==========================================
At 3:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Ellie, Category One (991 hPa) located at 17.6S 146.9E or 140 kms east southeast of Cairns and 120 kms northeast of Cardwell has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 8 knots towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Ellie is expected to continue to approach the coast overnight tonight and be located close to the coast on Monday morning.
GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands this evening between Cairns and Ayr.
Higher than normal tides are expected, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.
Flooding is likely to continue in the warning area due to heavy rain.
Tropical Cyclone Warning
========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cairns to Ayr.
TC Technical Bulletin (0600z 01FEB)
====================================
12 HRS: 17.9S 146.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 18.2S 146.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.4S 146.3E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 18.4S 148.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
Remarks:
Partially exposed LLCC less than 1/2 degree from deep convection. Irregular CDO greater than 1 1/2 degrees in diameter. DT is 3.0. MET is 2.5. DT used as final T.
TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:54pm on Sunday the 1st of February 2009
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Cairns
to Townsville.
The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities from Townsville to Ayr
has been cancelled.
At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Ellie, Category 1 was estimated to be 125
kilometres south southeast of Cairns and 51 kilometres northeast of Cardwell
moving west southwest at 12 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Ellie is expected to continue to approach the coast overnight
tonight and cross the coast between Innisfail and Ingham during Monday morning.
GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands overnight
between Cairns and Townsville.
Higher than normal tides are expected, but the sea level should not exceed the
highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.
Flooding is likely to continue in the warning area due to heavy rain.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Ellie at 10:00 pm EST
.Centre located near...... 17.9 degrees South 146.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 991 hectoPascals
People between Cairns and Townsville should take precautions and listen to the
next advice at 2am Monday. If you are unsure about precautions to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Monday 02 February.
Thanks for the updates
Is this an unusually active tropical season?
The heat-related deaths are tragic. Are air-conditioners needed? It is horrible to imagine dying from the heat.
Arctic Volcanos:
With the activity of Redoubt, I began wondering just how close to the Arctic these Alaskan volcanos are.
I had never heard any discussion of the effect of volcanism/seismic activity in the Arctic, so I put "google" to good use, and voila!! There are many sources. Seems that the Arctic is quite active with a major blow in 1999. Did y'all know that, or am I the only one in the dark here.
Arctic Volcanoes Found Active at Unprecedented Depths
Would this have an effect on the ice layer?
Jessica Trevena,
Sunday February 1, 2009
The Queensland coast from Cairns to Ayr is on Cyclone Warning, with winds already gusting above 90 km/h over parts of the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Ellie formed overnight Saturday from a low that has been bringing heavy rain - nearly half a metre in places - to the east coast and tablelands for a few days.
Ellie is forecast to cross the coast Monday, before downgrading to a low pressure system once more.
Gales and heavy rain are possible anywhere on the coast from Cairns to Rockhampton over the next 24 to 36 hours, most likely south of the cyclone.
Today, the wettest area has been around Mackay. Clarke Range, west of Mackay has already recorded a massive 379mm since 9am Saturday. The town itself has had just 69mm over the same period so far, but is likely to exceed 100mm by Tuesday.
The cyclone is the fifth already this season, with warm sea surface temperatures and an almost continuously active monsoon contributing to regular cyclone formation.
- Weatherzone
Yes they are.......i think its getting close.....
Jessica Trevena,
Sunday February 1, 2009
Adelaide had a fifth consecutive day over 40 degrees on Saturday, breaking the all time heatwave record set in 1908.
In that year, January saw 5 days over 40 degrees - but the hottest was 43.4, more than 2 degrees cooler than the 45.7 Adelaide experienced last Wednesday.
The city has yet been hot again today, reaching a sweltering top of 39.1 degrees so far.
Forecast sea breezes have brought relief to the coastal southeast, with Adelaide Airport dropping to 32 this afternoon, Mt Gambier peaking at just 32 and parts of southern Adelaide and Kangaroo Island also staying generally near 30 degrees.
The blocking high that has been a dominant driver of the extreme hot spell is still sitting over the Tasman Sea, with no sign of budging until next weekend. It is preventing fronts crossing the southeast, and thus replacing hot air with cool.
Blocking patterns are not unusual in Summer, but this one has combined with an extremely hot airmass as well as persisting for over a week - allowing the intensity of the heatwave to be extreme.
Due to the persistent block, temperatures in the high thirties and low forties will continue for the week, except for far south East coastal areas.
- Weatherzone
AussieStorm, what part of Australia are you in? My grandfather lives on the Golden coast and my aunt lives outside of Sydney
Funny how GW people worry so much as thing like this can really alter our climate....as one major eruption can pour more gases than man kind could ever......LOL
37 here :)
Tim, did Florida get any snow at all?
That snow is not due to arrive until TUESDAY nite..IF IT DOES.......LOL
Man... I am getting tired of doing the snow dance every night... the sacrifice ritual is tiring and the local chickens are starting to run away when they see me.. all I want is a tiny snow flurry on the panhandle.. or maybe Tampa.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ONE
ZONE PERTURBEE 08-20082009
16:00 PM Réunion February 1 2009
==================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather 08R (1007 hPa) located at 15.1S 70.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south-southwest at 4 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.4S 69.6E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 68.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.9S 66.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 16.9S 63.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
Additional Information
========================
Environmental conditions are globally neutral. Located on the edge of the upper level ridge, the system is always undergoing a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear, and the low is only fed by monsoon inflow conditions are expected to become more favorable beyond 24 hours, due to improving feeding by a better monsoon flow and the build of subtropical high pressures. Vertical wind shear should weaken. All available NPW track it west or west-southwest, intensifying it under the influence of the rebuilt subtropical ridge in the southeast. There are two main scenarios, depending on the speed of intensification, and the expension of the ridge west in the south of the system and northward in the east of the system. Curren forecast is based on a consensus of CEP, UKMO, and CONW models with a more progressive intensification and a ridge stronger in the south of the system
AT THIS STAGE OF INTENSITY, SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OG REGULAR WARNINGS.
Feb 1, 1:43 AM (ET)
By DAN JOLING
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) - Geologists monitoring Mount Redoubt for signs of a possible eruption noticed that a hole in the glacier clinging to the north side of the volcano had doubled in size overnight - and now spans the length of two football fields. more..
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie crossed the coast near Mission Beach at around midnight Sunday, and is expected to be slow moving and remain over land today while weakening further.
Winds around the centre of the cyclone have now weakened below gale force, so the Tropical Cyclone Warning for this system has been cancelled.
Heavy rainfall is likely to develop in coastal and adjacent inland parts between Innisfail and Mackay. A seperate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for this.
No further Tropical Cyclone Advices will be issued unless the situation changes.
Doesn't this indicate that the loss of ice in the Arctic may be due to factors other than/in addition to GW?
Yup :)
But stand by to get flamed for have the audacity to mention it.
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