Increasing hurricane damages
A conference called the Hurricane Science for Safety Leadership Forum convened this week in Orlando to look at how we can better prepare for the inevitable hurricanes in our future. The conference brought together an interesting mix of experts--scientists from environmental groups like the National Wildlife Federation, insurance industry representitives, and a representative from the pro-business Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI).
There are a number of interesting Powerpoint and video presentations posted on their web site, for those interested. The most eye-opening fact I saw came during a presentation done by Amanda Staudt of the National Wildlife Federation. In her presentation on the policy implication of hurricanes and climate change, she showed that the population of South Florida is projected to grow from a 1990 population of 6.3 million to a 2050 population of 15-30 million people. That's a startling increase in population. Higher and higher hurricane damage tabs are inevitable in coming decades, just from this huge increase in population. She goes further, showing that if the theoretical predictions for global warming by the end of the century come true--a 2-13% increase in hurricane winds due to ocean warming, a 10-31% increase in hurricane rainfall, and an increase in sea level of several feet--there is likely to be a huge increase in hurricane damage, and probably in deaths, as well.
I have a few comments on this. While I believe that hurricane damages will continue to grow primarily because of population increases, higher wealth, and poor land management, the contribution of increased damage due to global warming will start to become significant by the end of the century. The 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming theorized by hurricane researcher Dr. Kerry Emanuel (Emanuel, 2005) may not seem like much, it will make a significant difference in the destructive power of the strongest storms. A Category 4 hurricane does about four times more damage than a Category 3 hurricane, and 250 times more damage than a Category 1 storm (Figure 1). Given the expected increase of tropical sea surface temperatures of 1-2 °C by 2100, hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5-10%. Since the difference in wind speed between a Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane is about 15%, we can anticipate that the strongest hurricanes in 2100 will do 1 1/2 to 3 times more damage than they do now.
This may be an underestimate of the increase in damage, though. Global sea level rose about 0.75 feet last century, and is expected to rise 0.6 - 1.9 feet this century, according to the "official" word on climate, the 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A paper published by Pfeffer et al. in Science this year concluded that the IPCC underestimated sea level rise, and that the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet. If true, we can expect greatly increased damage from hurricane storm surges. However, it is possible that there will be fewer hurricanes by the end of the century, thanks to an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic (Vecchi and Soden, 2007).
Figure 1. Potential hurricane damage as a function of Saffir-Simpson category for U.S. hurricanes between 1925-1995. If the median damage from a Category 1 hurricane is normalized to be a "one", then Category 2, 3, and 4 hurricanes were 10, 50, and 250 times more damaging, respectively. Data taken from Pielke, Jr. R. A., and C. W. Landsea, 1998: "Normalized Atlantic hurricane damage 1925-1995" Wea. Forecasting, 13, pp.621-631.
Better building codes
Congressman Bennie Thompson, D-MS, Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, helped to kick off the conference with opening remarks that underscored his intention to hold Congressional hearings on developing new building codes in hurricane-prone areas. He was hopeful that President-elect Obama and new incoming head of Homeland Security, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, would work to adopt new, tougher building standards. "Take a look at the homes on the Bolivar Peninsula in Texas that are still standing after the hurricane," Thompson said. "We know how to build stronger homes. Now we just need to do it." Thompson said that while such legislation had been introduced in the past but failed, chances were better under an Obama administration of passage.
I think it is essential that more stringent and comprehensive building codes get adopted in hurricane alley to reduce the inevitable huge price tags from future hurricanes.
References
Emanuel, K. 2005, "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years", Nature, 436, 4 August 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03906.
Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming", Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Cold sunrise in Wilmington
31F with clear skies
Light winds and 50F forecast for the day
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A MAJOR TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GUIDANCE TO QUICKLY
RETURN TO OUR AREA AS THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ON TUESDAY...PEAKING IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NAM BEING A BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDING/HODOGRAPH FOR TALLAHASSEE AT 18 UTC WEDNESDAY (JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT) SHOWS A SBCAPE OF 1100 J/KG...0-6 KM VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...AND 0-1 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-35 KT.
HOWEVER (AS SPC POINTS OUT ON THEIR DAY-3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK)...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF STRONG VERTICAL FORCING...SO WE WILL REFRAIN
FROM MENTIONING A SEVERE THREAT FOR NOW. VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER OUR AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH OFTEN MEANS THERE WILL BE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
DOUBLE THIS RANGE.
.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE EURO AND GFS HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR RECENT TREND COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...A SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO
WITH FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SOME AREAS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
UNDERGOING A RETROGRESSION...WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROF SHIFTING TO
THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN U.S. COMING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. ONE ADDITIONAL
ITEM OF POSSIBLE INTEREST IS THAT CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
FORECASTS INDICATE THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO MAKE THAT CALL AT THIS POINT...AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE CURRENT FORECASTS..............
by next week the eastern USA will be above normal in temps.
LOL...it does seem like I'm talking to myself on here....lol..........
Amarillo, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 12 min 47 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
52 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 27%
Dew Point: 19 °F
Wind: 16 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 25 mph
Pressure: 29.57 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 22000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3606 ft
Is nearly 174 days away.
Good. That means you can't see 271 either which means I can say what's on my mind....why do you come on here like you're hyped up on something all of the time?
POOF!
Puts me up to 69.
I hope your husband isn't on the list....lol.....
It was a joke...please don't add me to your list.....
LOL?
Ignore list?
DDT used to work on lots of things and look where that got us. There is pest resistance in bloggerland? Learn something new about this every day.
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