Unexpected ocean cooling result found to be an error; 2nd warmest October on record
Since the publication in 2006 of the paper, Recent cooling of the upper ocean, climate scientists have been scratching their heads, trying to figure out why the upper layer of the ocean had cooled from 2004-2006. Since the oceans absorb more than 80% of the heat from global warming, we should expect to see the oceans heating up if the globe is warming. Climate skeptics pointed to the result as evidence that the planet was not warming after all, although surface and satellite measurements showed that the year 2005 was the warmest or second warmest year on record for the surface of the globe.
Now, the explanation for this apparent cooling of the oceans has been resolved--key measurements made by submersible robot buoys and that indicated the ocean was cooling were found to be in error. The new, corrected data show that no cooling of the oceans occurred in 2004-2006, in agreement with what the climate models were predicting. People often malign the accuracy of climate models, but sometimes they are more trustworthy than the data! The full story of the global ocean cooling mistake is presented in an excellent NASA article that I highly recommend reading. It gives a great picture of how science moves forward to correct mistakes.
Figure 1. Ocean temperature change from 2004 to 2006 originally showed drops of over 1.5° C in the Atlantic Ocean (top). The apparent large drop in temperature was due to bad data from buoys, and it disappeared when errors in these data sets were corrected (bottom). The remaining large swings in temperature visible in these maps are due to shifting positions of ocean currents. (Maps by Robert Simmon, based on data from Josh Willis and John Lyman.)
Second warmest October on record for the globe
The planet continues to stay extremely warm this year, though no record warm months have been recorded in 2008. October 2008 came the closest--it was the 2nd warmest October for the the globe on record, according to statistics released yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. These statistics have been corrected for a widely reported error that was discovered earlier this month. Over land areas, October 2008 was the warmest October on record. The period January through October was the 9th warmest such period on record. Records extend back 129 years, to 1880. Much of the unusual warmth occurred over Asia, Australia, and Eastern Europe (Figure 2). According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, October 2008 was an exceptionally dry month in central and southeastern Australia, ranking as the driest October on record for South Australia, second driest for Tasmania, and third driest for Victoria.
Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for October 2008. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
For the contiguous U.S., October was pretty ordinary. It was the 44th coolest and 51st driest October since 1895. October was the 7th wettest on record for the West North Central U.S. and the 17th driest for the Northwest U.S.
October 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the third lowest on record for the month of October, 34% below the mean from 1979-2000, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This is 9.5% below the 1979-2000 average. The record October low was set in 2007.
There is neither a La Niña nor El Niño at present, and neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific. There is no indication that this will change in coming months, and most of the computer climate models forecast a continuation of neutral conditions over the next three months.
Portlight making keynote presentation at charity funding conference
The Portlight.org charity is making the keynote presenation at a funding conference hosted by a coalition of state and federal agencies which work in the area of post-disaster relief involving people with disabilities. The presentation is Thursday morning, November 20, at 9:15 am EST. You can follow the proceedings via the portlight webcam at stormjunkie.com. The webcam will also be running most of the day today as Stormjunkie and Presslord drive up to Atlanta for the conference, and host a Q and A session from their hotel room tonight. At the conference Thursday morning, they plan to discuss the Hurricane Ike relief efforts made possible by the Weather Underground community. Thanks for everyone's support for making all this possible!
I'll have a new blog post Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index
Thanks...all the submersibles I have seen just look small subs! Thanks again
I have no problem with someone saying that GW is occuring. I have a BIG problem with the CONCLUSION that it's bad and needs to be fixed. Google "little climate optimum" with the quotation marks. Read the boring scientific studies and come to your own conclusions.
A few years ago, a team of scientists from Boston made a $10,000 bet with a team of scientists in Russia. The Russians believe GW is due to sun spot activity, which should begin to decrease around the year 2016. The Boston team of course believes GW is due to greenhouse gases.
It's one thing to state a fact, it's another to present a conclusion as fact. It's like saying that hurricanes are "bad." Yeah, they are bad if you live in a glass house on the shoreline of a hurricane prone area. But from the point of view of the Earth, it may actualy be "good."
I read an article (sorry, can't remember cite) that said the NASA error was caused by reporting the temps from Aug. as being the temps for Sept. and Oct.
Dr Masters confirmed Russian data was legit. Good enough for me.
Skyepony sold me on the tossing out of the XBT too warm data.
Now my only question is the tossing out of the Argo Float too cool data.
WU mail me your email add and I'll try to edit it to shorten it a bit and send you the capture and rescue scenes.
Can't edit as well as I find fish.
Google the phrase, marlin attwood eagle.
side view schematic
top view schematic
You'll find links to technical references at the link below.
Mucho thanky, amigo
That nails it for me.
I guess you just can't beat the old fashion methods of sticking a thermometer in a bottle.
Panstackingly slow, but reliable.
One of the issues with all of these modern sampling techniques is that the data are available in real-time and the default is to put this data up in real-time. I think it would be better if they let the data age for a few months and during that interval errors would be caught before they are put up on the web. On the other hand this is only an issue because some folks think the provisional real-time data is the last word. It's not and error catching and fixing is a normal part of science. It doesn't mean the science is suspect, it means that it is progressing as it should.
Hate the multiple choice poles (as the one I'm seeing on the current page).
They are ridiculous.
ie.
"A 1959 Texas law states that the goverment may seize any home that is built between the low and high tide marks. Now that Hurricane Ike has eroded away huge amounts of beach, many people who built their homes close to the coast are in violation of the law. Do you believe these people should have their homes seized and be forced to live elsewhere?" Yes. No. Notsure.
I lived on the Gulf coast for 9 years. Yes the state may seize private property due to coastline proximity. They will do so based on a significant percentage of personal property storm dammage incurred. They should. The property becomes virtully useless. After all, you could rebuild the storm dammaged property but who would be stupid enough to protect the investment?
Homes constructed in unprotected coastline areas are built on "stilts". If the coastline erodes and you have to take a row to get to where your car is parked, the state could care less.
There are commercial properties in Galveston built on piers.
Popular opinion (and everybody has one...)poles generaly lack enough information to formulate logical conclusions.
They seem to be used most often as a propaganda tool.
edit, That is, To train us to make snap judgements based on emotion rather than to take the the difficult path of seeking truth.
PS: In hurricane seasons between 1973 and 1982 I heard Houston local news reporters state many times "New Orleans dodged another bullet...". What does that tell you concerning Katrina?
Why is the general public so willing to be mis-lead?
The following video shows the whole incident...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn22jvxfHOE
Added: November 12, 2008
Marlin stuck in off shore oil rig
A marlin gets stuck in the blow out prevention stack of a subsea oil rig.
The guy operation the ROV manages to get him out though
Viewing: 301 - 316
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index