tricky tropical triplicates...and bertha
9:30am july 17 updates are in bold above each picture section
Good (circle one) morning/evening/night.
Ok. the tropics are very busy! we currently have 4 systems worth mentioning (and thats just in the atlantic!. I'll discuss them in order of "formationability"
1. first off we'll start with Bertha. Bertha has been around WAY too long--it will be two weeks on the 17th. Right now Bertha is still a 70 mph tropical storm and doesn't want to let go...but looking at satellite images it is evident that Bertha is not the storm she once was.
currently Bertha is being steared back to the southeast and this general movement should continue through thursday night, before she turns back to the northeast around an upper level low that is sliding southwestwards toward Bertha. Bertha is a resiliant storm and her circulation may very well last another week, but her days as a tropical system are limited. With in the next 4 days bertha should become extratropical as cooler waters and higher wind sheer thake their toll. Bertha is done with North America aside from high surf which will continue to impact the coast up through Newfoundland. Bertha may, in a weeks time, impact parts of europe...the northern parts, most likely...with high surf, heavy rains, and gusty winds as an extratropical system...if she is still aroud, that is. Bertha is truely a remarkable system and has racked in a bundle of new records. The latest being the longest lived july tropical storm(or higher) in history. I do not expect Bertha to strengthen anymore...there is an outside chance that she may briefly regain hurricane status, however, she only has about a 12-18 hour time slot to do so...and gradual weakening should take place starting thursday night.
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update: 9:30am July 17
Bertha weakened to 60 mph at the 5am advisory. High shear is taking its tole, however the NHC insist on keeping her as a 50mph storm for the rest of her life (i find this interesting because when Bertha formed, she strengthened to a 50mph storm then stayed that way for two whole days. Just a note) What is left of Bertha's convection seems to be getting tangled with the convection on the tail end of the low. A turn to the east then north should begin later today. Bertha is done intensifying. It looks like bertha will not effect europe like i said last night, instead it looks like she will speed in to the far north atlantic and slip between europe and Greenland
2. 94L
The next system on todays agenda is, invest 94L. This system has been around since sunday. Heres a general break down on how she's been doing since she formed:
sunday--"wow. look at that. definetly a depression in 24 hours"
monday--"she looks very sickly"
tuesday--"nope. shes a gonner"
today--"wow. look at that. probally a depression today. then again...maybe not"
94L put on an impressive display of its potential this morning. 94 also caught the eyes of the hurricane hunters, as they made their first flight into her today. The hurricane plane flew around in 94 for several hours...the results: *drumroll*
Maximum winds=30mph
Lowest pressure=1009mb
Final word=NO DEPRESSION
Link
heres what the NHC says to had to say on the mission outcome:
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST COMPLETED
ITS MISSION IN THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION...
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LACKS A SINGLE WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS NOT BEING CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
94 was very close to depression status, but since this morning her presentation has deteriorated and convection has decreased. I still believe that we will see a depression form from this system, but we may have to wait until it gets closer to 70 west--south of Puerto Rico. Here are tha limiting factors that i can see with 94:
1. the system is in an area that is typically not all too favorable for formation. Being pretty close to South America, a lot of systems find it difficult to strengthen, because they "suck" in drier air from the continent. 94 (to me) appears to be in this sort of situation, however, the storm isn's very well defined yet, so it is very possible that it may simply not be able to "suck" in this dry air.
2. There is some serious shear just to the north of the system of up to 40mph. this should help to keep the islands from hispanola to the virgin islands safe...for now.
where will it go?
If nothing ever becomes of this system then a westward motion...probally into Nicaragua or Beliez...will take place. How strong the storm gets, if it does develop, will determine its northward movement. Right now the most favorable track that i can see is towards the west, with a landfall on the mid to upper yucatan. We shall see...
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update: 9:30am July 17
94 does not look good at all today. it is an area of disorganized thunder. The system is too close to South America and that is interfearing with its circulation aswell as pulling in dry air as i noted yesterday. Right now i can not see this system developing before it clears south america in about 2 days. Once in the western caribean, 94 may have a chance to redevelop, but until then I am not expecting much from this storm.
3.
A low pressure system is developing in the Gulf of mosquitoes...yes, the place actually exists, but its better known as just the southwestern caribbean (actually its further north than the gulf, but i sstill wanted to throw it in there...what a name). This system actually caught me by suprise, and i just noticed it this afternoon. Therefore, i obviously can't tell you what its been doing. the system has some spin to it with a large and symetrical appearance. While i do believe that this system is a prime canidate for our next storm, i'm not too sure that it will have enough time to do so. The system is moving to the west and at its current speed it should be over central america in about 36-48 hours. With this said i feel that we very well may see a depression form from this, and possibly a storm, but with its time limit i cant see more than a 50mph storm. If the storm were to unexpectedly stall or slow down for some reason, however, we would be talking about a whole different ball game as (quoting the NHC) UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. Whether or not it forms in the Atlantic, Central america is in for some rain, and it could become something in the east pacific.
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update: 9:30am July 17
The caribbean system is still there this morning.The convection with this system is still a little on the disorganized side and i am not expecting development before, it reaches the central america tonight.
NHC:
THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
Caribbean system near the bottom left
4. the fourth area that shall be discussed richt now is a system that is currently over Florida. This system developed yesterday just off the west coast of florida, but has sinced moved inland. Honestly, this system isnt much more than an area of thunderstorms. There's NO organization to it, barely any useable convection, and not much of a circulation. The NHC isnt impressed by it, and niether am I. There is some potential for development if it can make it off the east coast of florida...if there is anything to make it off the east coast of florida... and find the Gulf stream current, but until that happens this is just a rain maker.
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update: 9:30am July 17
This area is visible as a naked swirl on satellite loops. the system, which appears to be located on or just the northeastern coast of florida is void of any convection. Until this area gains more convection its developmental chances are slim, eventhough, there is a definet circulation.
Loop of all four systems
Well, thats all that i have for now.
Please leave a comment below, even if its just a "hi" or "hmm..."
also im doing a nonweather related survy:
put these sports in the order that you like them best
1)Football(american)
2)Soccer
3)Cross Country(or track events)
4)Frisbee
5)Tennis
Thanks alot and try to stay safe, E.B.
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