Hurricane Chris Dissipates ; Debby coming soon
Hurricane Chris dissipated early this morning as it traversed through the chilly waters parallel to New Foundland. ex-Chris won't be a threat to anything or anyone, and has no chance to redevelop.
Figure 1.
Hurricane Chris at peak intensity on Thursday Morning, with 75 mph sustained winds.
Debby to form in the Next Few days
96L is near to becoming our Fourth Tropical Cyclone of the season, though it remains disorganized at this hour. The Core of the storm is beginning to consolidate, and could become a Tropical Depression within the next 36 Hours. Due to the disorginizational state of 96L, Recon was scrubbed today, but maybe called out tomorrow if it warranted. The system has been flip-flopped by the models for almost 10 days now. Though a good handful of the models now are in agreement of "Debby" sliding Northward, before getting tucked under the building ridge and head Westward into the Texas coast. The most reliable of the global models, the Euro, agrees with this solution. The only models group that disagrees with this scenario currently is the BAMS Suite, HWRF, and GFS which amp the incoming trough off the east coast, and pull Debby northeastward across Florida as a decent system. Current intensities of Debby, shown by the models, is a Strong Tropical Storm/Category 1 or 2 Hurricane. Shear is expected to dive down over the central gulf and western gulf over the next 72 hours, so if Debby were to take the western solution. We could be dealing with Hurricane Debby coming into the Western Gulf Coast as a Category 1/2. (96L Floater)
Figure 2.
Scenario #1: 96L is tugged by the strong trough and head northeastward over Florida as a Weaker system.
Figure 3.
Scenario #2: 96L isn't pulled northward the trough, then heads off toward the West with the building ridge overhead.
I'll have an update on 96L tomorrow or Sunday, depending on when we get Debby...
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