93E still organizing in Eastern Pacific
The incipient tropical disturbance, Invest 93E, is still organizing as it is expected to become a tropical cyclone in the coming days. The disturbance is located several hundred miles southwest of Mexico’s Pacific coast. Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) suggests that the disturbance has a broad surface circulation. However, latest satellite loop shows that the disturbance’s cloud pattern looks less impressive than several hours earlier, likely due to some moderate wind shear affecting the south side of it.
Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite image of Invest 93E.
Forecast for 93E
93E is anticipated to move west-northwestward in the next few days by the weak high pressure over Mexico. By day three, the disturbance is expected to turn westward, guided by a different high pressure ridge over the North Pacific Ocean. Most of the global models agree to the forecasted path of 93E, while some of the other models forecast it to move west-southwestward after day three, and one other model predicts 93E to move west-northwestward over the next five days.
93E is most likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days. In its region, sea surface temperatures are 29°C, wind shear is 10 – 15 knots, and the air humidity is moist. These environmental conditions should allow 93E to both slowly further organize and strengthen. The SHIPS model predicts that conditions should remain favorable over the next 48 hours. After that, however, shear is forecasted to increase slightly into 20 knots and air humidity would become little drier, which both of these are not very favorable for tropical cyclones. Despite these conditions, they should not weaken the system significantly but rather keep it in a slow or no intensification. Therefore, I expect this disturbance to strengthen gradually for at least the next several days. In fact, some intensity models no longer forecast 93E to become a hurricane but rather forecast it to become a strong tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 93E 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, which I also agree on.
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