Dry Slot

Ramping Down

Posted by: Bogon, 7:42 PM GMT en Agosto 13, 2010

August 19th was my first anniversary as a blogger on Weather Underground. I pushed the Blog button last year as hurricane season began to intensify. Once again the tropical North Atlantic is warm enough to foment tropical storm development.

Sea Surface Temperatures

The peak of hurricane season passed on September 10th. Risk of tropical storm activity will remain high for another week or so, after which it will slowly diminish.

Peak of Season

During the summer the MJO, which normally circles the globe restlessly, dawdled over the Indian Ocean. In India, China and Pakistan persistent moist rising air contributed to record monsoonal flooding. Easterly trade winds ferried waves of heat and moisture across equatorial Africa.

90-Day Phase Space

In the Atlantic a series of tropical waves spun westward from central Africa toward the Caribbean: hurricane alley.
[See comments 28, 36 and 55 below.]

Julia and Lisa were the last storms to swirl past the Cape Verde Islands this season. So far this fall each Cape Verde storm has recurved out to sea. Will that remain true as the region most favorable for storm formation shifts westward? This model forecasts Caribbean weather a few days hence.

NAM 84 hour Forecast

With the onset of autumn water temperatures in the eastern Atlantic begin to fall. Cyclogenesis moves into the warm Caribbean Sea. Changing weather patterns improve the chance that any tropical systems which do form will be steered toward landfall in North America.

Follow the players here on this stage.