Severe Weather Chances Thursday for the Northeast
A warm front will lift northward across the northern Middle Atlantic reintroducing higher humidity and heat for Thursday into the weekend. Increasing shear values as an upper level wave moves through on Thursday will enhance the risk for significant severe weather chances across northern Pennsylvania up through central New York State. Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend over most areas.
"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 7/24)
As of early July the word 'derecho' was ranked 7th for trending words on twitter. Link. This is courtesy of post-storm from the June 2012 derecho across the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic causing one of the most widespread damaging wind tracks in recent memory. It affected millions across the eastern portions of the country. The explosion of popular social media has greatly influenced the way weather is related to the general public. Only just a few months ago, the majority of Americans would not have any idea the meaning of a derecho. Now the word is a commonplace in the internet language particularly for amateurs on weather forums. In fact the word is now often abused; for instance today's squall line advancing southeast over the Ohio Valley does not actually fit the word of derecho despite those definitions currently bouncing arounds on sites such as twitter today.
Credit must be given to The Weather Channel for sparking the general public's interest in weather and meteorology, but in the last decade many sources have directly improved acknowledgement for general weather conditions across the country. For the most part this has been for the better, but there has been an increase in ignorance in severe weather warnings for the general public. Many false alarms have allowed many to ignore other weather warnings such as severe thunderstorm warnings. Many people believe they are issued when any thunderstorm is threatening a region.
There are too many weather advisories/warnings being issued and the definitions are too complex to relay to the general public. This is causing general confusion and ignorance. The system needs to be reworked and this is not just an education problem... The problem exists in the original architect of the system.
"Regional Radar"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Regional Satellite"
(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)
"Regional Advisories"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 7/24)
A cold front on Tuesday will continue to dip south across the Middle Atlantic sparking a few broken lines of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 0-6km shear values around 30kts may enhance a small threat of damaging winds particularly towards the Washington, DC-Baltimore corridor. Winds will begin to turn to the north and northwest filtering in drier and cooler air. High pressure will take control on Wednesday for the best day of the week. Sunshine is expected region-wide with near normal temperatures. By Wednesday night a warm front will begin to lift north across Pennsylvania with increasing heat and humidity. Scattered thunderstorm development along the front may enhance convective probabilities for portions of western Maryland and western Pennsylvania overnight. A slight risk of severe weather is possible in those areas with the highest threat being damaging winds.
An upper level low over the Great Lakes will spark the development of a MCS that will advance east into New York before dawn on Thursday with heavy rain. Current NAM/SREF progs indicate QPF totals in excess of 0.5in. This complex will weaken as it advances east into New England by Thursday morning. Existing boundaries and the cold front trigger will initiate thunderstorm development later in the day across Pennsylvania and New York with possible severe weather development given the favorable right front entrance from the low level jet positioned directly over the region. Highest shear is a bit displaced to the north, but should be enough to give way to a widespread damaging wind threat as a potential squall line develops. H85s will rise above +20C on Thursday with highs reaching the upper 90s across southern areas in Maryland and the Washington DC area. Dew points in the lower 70s will increase heat indices to near heat advisory criteria values. PWATs near 2.0in will also enhance the threat of heavy rain especially across Pennsylvania. The highest threat for convective activity will be across northern Pennsylvania into south-central New York. To the north in New England will be an area of more stratiform rain showers, while areas in the south experience a strong warm mid level cap.
Recent GFS and ECMWF runs highlight the potential for a second MCS to move through on Friday across Pennsylvania with heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms, but for now this threat remains a bit more uncertain. Temperatures will begin to lower towards the weekend, but higher instability will enhance the risk for pulse thunderstorm development each day. Most areas will be dry and the weekend will not be a washout. High pressure will advance over the Northeast by early next week with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Sunshine will prevail by Sunday and Monday.
"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"
(Courtesy of Weather Underground)
"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 7/24)
After an extensive dry period across much of the Northeast, a basin-wide rainfall gave relief to many areas nearing D0 or D1 drought conditions. Areas that received the most rainfall were across central and eastern Pennsylvania up through New England. Continued drought conditions exist across central New York state, western Pennsylvania, and parts of the Delmarva. These areas have received little precipitation this year after a nearly snowless winter. Main-stem waterways are running quite low in this region. Isolated may be on the way over the next seven days as several convective chances of precipitation will exist with isolated locations receiving 7-day QPF totals in excess of 2.0in while other areas receive little. Latest GFS/NAM runs indicate the potential for a MCS to move through New York state into New England with widespread heavy rain QPF totals. This may help the drought-stricken regions around the Finger Lakes. This complex will likely weaken as it moves east of the Hudson River. Elsewhere precipitation chances will remain less organized and more isolated in nature. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday through early next week.
Temperatures will average near normal for the next seven days with highs generally at 90F or slightly below depending on location. The combination of rain chances and cooler conditions will be beneficial for those late-summer gardens. Many farmers have been saved from poor seasons courtesy of the last widespread stratiform rain. Corn and soy bean crops were generally saved across much of the region.
My vegetable garden has had an excellent year. Currently my corn stalks are beginning to produce small ears and appear to be cross-pollinating very nicely. Pepper and tomato crops have been slow producers despite the hot weather. I believe my main problem was that I planted them too late in the season. I also am currently growing watermelons, eggplant, cucumber, zucchini, yellow beans, and the typical herbs (basil, cilantro, chives, oregano, parsley).
"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 7/24)
Severe weather probabilities are beginning to increase for Thursday across parts of the Northeast. A warm front will begin to lift north across the region allowing warmer and more humid air to advance into southern New England. Meanwhile an intense upper level low will begin to rotate east across New York state. Current guidance including the latest 12z NAM highlights PWATs rising to near +2SD as far north as the Finger Lakes associated with a MCS that will move through the overnight hours on Wednesday. Given the unfavorable diurnal hours and slightly displaced dynamics at that time, it is likely severe weather chances will remain low with this complex. The track will likely be across New York state before weakening as it advances east into southern New England. Heavy rain will be the primary threat along with continuous lightning. Total QPF may approach 0.5-1.0in for those areas.
Thursday morning will feature lower CIN as an area of subsidence exists across New York and New England as the MCS advances off the coast. Widespread strato-cumulus will likely prevent any morning surface instability. As the low level jet begins to intensify, the warm sector will begin to destabilize once again. Existing boundaries left from the MCS and approaching trough will act as the trigger for afternoon thunderstorm development. 0-6km shear values near 40-55knots and SBCAPE in excess of 2,000j/kg will be the primary ingredients for a severe thunderstorm threat. Current HIRES guidance suggests the development of a squall line with a widespread damaging wind threat across Pennsylvania and New York. A SPC moderate risk of severe weather is possible across these areas. The primary inhibiting factors are the questionable stabilization after the passage of the MCS along with the extent of the cloud cover.
For the time being it appears like a widespread severe weather outbreak is possible Thursday afternoon and evening with the highest threat across northern Pennsylvania and southern New York. Stay tuned!
"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Monthly Outlook" (August)
As El Nino conditions continue to develop based on the latest SST reports from the equatorial Pacific region, lingering La Nina-based weather patterns will continue to dominate across the contiguous United States. Despite a near record low NAO for much of the meteorological summer. This has allowed the higher heights to develop across the central United States where persistent above average temperatures and dry conditions will continue through much of August. Little to no pattern change is expected allowing drought conditions to worsen. The Northeast long range forecast shows some upper level troughs rotating through the region with northwesterly flows for 1-3 day periods. This cooler weather will most directly affect parts of New England, while the Middle Atlantic continues in a warmer regime.
Temperatures for the most part should average above normal for the month of August across the entire Northeast around (+)1F-(+)2F. Precipitation chances will be on the increase with normal to slightly above normal rain given the slightly more active northwesterly flow with chances of rain showers and thunderstorms. Given the convective nature of the precipitation, some areas will see localized D0-D1 drought conditions particularly in areas that are already dry such as central New York and portions of Delaware.
Guidance also continues to favor a relatively quiet tropics for the next few weeks with limited activity. Given the current position of the upper level ridge over the Midwest, a higher than normal probability exists for a tropical storm to near the eastern seaboard should one develop. This of course will enhance rainfall amounts for the month over the Northeast. None the less the general theme will be a warmer than normal pattern, but less hot than it has been with increasing rain chances. The worst heat waves of the summer are likely over for the Northeastern part of the nation.
"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.
Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...
(Courtesy of WGAL)
"Linglestown, PA 2012 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 9
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 21
(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 0
Flood Warnings- 0
Flash Flood Watch- 2
Flash Flood Warnings- 0
January precipitation- 2.82"
February precipitation- 1.90"
March precipitation- 1.41"
April precipitation- 1.74"
May precipitation- 7.47"
June precipitation- 3.30"
July precipitation- 5.29"
August precipitation- 0.00"
Yearly precipitation- 23.93"
(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 9
Excessive Heat Watch- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90F days- 22
100F days- 1
Highest Temperature- 102F on 7/7
Reader Comments
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...OH...NRN KY...NRN
PANHANDLE OF WV...WRN/NRN PA...WRN NY.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 261626Z - 261830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...RAPID DEVELOPMENT...INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF
TSTMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z OVER WRN/NRN PARTS OF THIS DISCUSSION
AREA...INVOF ANY OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES DESCRIBED BELOW. DAMAGING
GUSTS ARE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH OTHER SVR MODES ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...15Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND CORRESPONDING TO DIFFUSE ERN FRINGE
OF THICKER CLOUD COVER ON VIS IMAGERY. THIS ZONE WAS LOCATED FROM
SRN IL AND SWRN INDIANA NEWD OVER W-CENTRAL/NRN OH...THEN ENEWD OVER
NWRN PA...WHERE IT INTERSECTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD OVER
S-CENTRAL PA. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN PA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE
WILL MOVE LITTLE AS CLOUDS ERODE WITH EWD EXTENT BUT CONTINUE TO
ADVECT OVER AREA FROM W. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MCV MOVING ENEWD
ABOUT 35 KT OVER W-CENTRAL IL...ON TRACK TO REACH NRN INDIANA AROUND
22Z...AND PRECEDED BY MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
MIDLEVEL ASCENT. GRAVITY WAVE WAS EVIDENT MOVING SEWD OVER SWRN
PA...OH/WV BORDER AND CENTRAL KY...BEHIND WHICH STRONGEST SFC
HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM NERN OH TO WRN KY.
IN LOW LEVELS...CINH EVIDENT IN 12Z PBZ/ILN RAOBS IS BEING REMOVED
QUICKLY BY STG DIABATIC HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...BELOW
PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR THAT CONTRIBUTES STEEP LOW-MIDDLE
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F...NET RESULT
WILL BE PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE STRENGTHENING TO 3500-5000 J/KG RANGE
OVER BROAD SWATH OF WARM SECTOR...BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE. SUCH STG-EXTREME BUOYANCY ATOP
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS...AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY-WSWLY
DEEP-LAYER WINDS...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE
FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL TSTM CLUSTERS WITH ORGANIZED/AGGREGATE COLD
POOLS ENHANCING SVR WIND RISK. THIS MAY OCCUR WITH DEVELOPMENT NOW
OVER LE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NEAR WARM FRONT AND
SRN-SHORE LAKE BREEZE...AS WELL AS SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT INVOF
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE AND AHEAD OF MCV OVER PORTIONS INDIANA/OH.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT TOWARD AND OVER WARM
FRONT...VALUES REACHING 40-50 KT IN NWRN PA WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH ALSO
IS MAXIMIZED. THIS SUGGESTS RELATIVE MAX IN SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK
ALSO MAY EXIST INVOF WARM FRONT...SHIFTING EWD/NEWD WITH THAT
BOUNDARY.
Local product wording hints at a 4-8PM window....and that just doesn't seem to be matching these model runs.
Nor does it match that the SPC is expecting IND/OH development around 2PM then moving eastward. No way that gets here any time this evening (central NJ).
*shrug*
Uncertainty unfolding?
Looks like a hurry up and wait kind of afternoon for us in NJ.
It seems to occur in my area often
Yeah I agree with you. Most of the models also void New England of any severe convection, yet most all of the forecasts mention the chance up that direction. Looking at the warm front, it appears a bit farther south than expected by earlier forecasts from the NWS.
Probably not, in fact peak intensity may be just to our west or northwest although given the surface instability it may continue right through the LSV. This set up is very rare around these parts so it is not likely to be like other events in the last few seasons.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (70%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
OHC007-155-PAC039-261745-
/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0008.120726T1721Z-120726T1745Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ASHTABULA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN TRUMBULL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
* UNTIL 145 PM EDT
* AT 118 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINSMAN...OR 16 MILES SOUTH
OF JEFFERSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEADVILLE...KINSMAN...ANDOVER...HARTSTOWN...GENEVA ...CONNEAUT LAKE
AND COCHRANTON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO
BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR CLOSET.
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772. WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
I'm already seeing towering cumulus, particularly to my northwest (I'm in State College).
I think if I am to see strong to severe storms that it will require the MN cold front to merge with the OH cold front before it all reaches here. Otherwise I have a little feeling that any bust potential could be the Central NJ/Southern NJ/SE PA regions.
Yet, we just don't know.
A little outdoor update. 87F, 61% Humidity, strong variable turbulent surface wind, sky...milky white after clouds have moved out - but the sky is certainly one very stable looking environment for now.
Continuing to hurry up and wait, P, Tinton Falls NJ
correct me if I am wrong, but I believe I am in PA Tornado Valley.
I will have my eyes and ears ready. It is so nice having this website to get an idea of the oncoming weather.
Blizz - a question that hopefully you can speculate. I realize it's just speculation. What are the reasons for these scenarios in the past month? The hot weather? It doesn't seem like we have had it terrible with the humidity....I have encountered worst humidity. Is it the drought conditions in the Midwest? I am just curious what might cause these types of severe conditions since it doesn't happen very often. Or is it just the High pressure over the Plains? The winds are going up and over the High and coming down onto the NE/MidAtlantic
Eh....this is going to be a big long wait for a lot of us...south of I78 and east of I83.
This of course...discounting any pre-frontal activity.
There is no doubt about the line...and it is intensifying and now beginning to fill in more on the southern reaches of the boundary.
Beginning to take the appearance of a solid line that has the desire to just march steadily through to the coastline and beyond.
I'll try to answer this in a new blog after this one... but a lot of this has to do with the drought and heat combo; they are a vicious cycle that strengthen each other.
Beyond that, I don't think I have ever seen a High Rip Current Risk Warning in effect, have you!?
---
NJZ014-262000-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDY HOOK
1230 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THIS AFTERNOON
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE EVENING.
BREEZY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
=====
And yeah, not sure what the deal is with afternoon or even evening thunderstorms forecast. They need to update this. Our atmosphere is clean and very stable and will be for many hours to come.
---
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* LOCATION...ATLANTIC COAST OF NEW JERSEY.
* RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING FROM MODERATE TO START THIS
MORNING TO HIGH BY THIS AFTERNOON
* SURF HEIGHT...3 TO 6 FEET.
* OTHER HAZARDS...THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTY
BEFORE THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND OFF THE SLIGHTLY COOLER COASTAL
WATERS LOWERS THE HEAT INDEX THROUGH THE 90S. A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND/OR WAVE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG RIPS
CURRENTS. THESE RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE
WHO ENTERS THE SURF.
&&
92f plus 81d equals 110hi
just saw that. i bet the mets are going crazy up there. active tornado warnings and no radar!!!
dangerous!!!
80F dew point here too! Did you see that last tornado warning was for a town called Cyclone, PA hahaha
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
BROOKVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH
What is strange to me is the day has been breezy before thunderstorms this season. In the past I thought we would just bake. A lot of high temp days have had a breeze, at least in my area.
91F now with dewpt. of 78F - 66% RH. heat index of 108F
an hour ago it was just blue hazy skies. now clouds are streaming N and NW
Look at the cloud tops on that cell!
This is just ridiculous. These radars have to be more reliable than this.
A spotted tornado is headed right toward KCCX. The only radar that will be able to see if that is still on the ground is CCX. PBZ is too far away now.
that's called " our radar is down so lets project this line out 2 hours"
Wow look at that MCS in western Ohio. 2.0in hail just reported out that way too!
FOR JEFFERSON...INDIANA...CLARION...BUTLER AND ARMSTRONG COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AND BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...
AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BROCKWAY TO SAXONBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY
MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS
SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM.
NEVERTHELESS...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS
LIKELY AS THE NUMBER OF BOWING SEGMENTS INCREASE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
THREAT OF ISOLATED INTENSE WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADOES.
I cannot wait to see what happens when this line approaches the LSV. I have never seen parameters this extreme in our part of the country and they are centered right over here and have been all day! Crazy!!!
roofs off buildings people trapped
Looks like the values are low in NJ but looking at those hi-res visible loops it would appear the stable atmosphere over NJ could get booted right out of the way...look at it around Philly and you can see why I think that may occur.
Meanwhile PA is just getting ripped this afternoon into this evening.
Still early to call what NJ will see...but with systems this intense they have been known to just plow the stable atmosphere right out of the way and bring the highly unstable airmass in.
It's been a very long time since I have seen that happen but the last time it did...this is how PA looked.
Latest image of TORNADO WARNINGS in our area. Take shelter now if you are within these red boxes! SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN ELMIRA FROM THAT LARGE STORM MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. Storm is moving east at 60 mph.
Viewing: 51 - 101
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