Unsettled Fall Week Ahead for the Northeast...
"Afternoon Thoughts"(Updated 9/18)
Well it is homecoming weekend here at Cornell... And yes, we actually won our football game against Bucknell. Given our record of 2-8 last year, this is definitely a semi-confidence booster for the team. Last year we lost our homecoming game to Brown. Nothing too much new up here on the hill... Classes are definitely beginning to intensify in both workload and expected academic participation. There is a saying here that you walk a 30 degree slope in 30 degree temperatures to get a 30 percent on a prelim. I find it very difficult to find a comparison in past experiences to the amount of workload and intensity here. Given our first prelims are fast approaching beginning this week through next, the stress is certainly building among the student population. At times the stress seems so thick in the air that you can slice it with a knife. My weekends are filled with homework, studying, and reading along with the occasional gym trip or extracurricular activity. I do have to laugh... I spend my Saturday mornings doing a full cleaning of my room from vacuuming to dusting and I even washed the windows, lol. I am probably the only one up vacuuming their dorm at 9am on a Saturday, lol. Yes I am quite the clean/organized freak! In any case it helps me start my day.
I certainly have met a range of people here from having dinner the other night with a girl from Ghana to chatting with someone in my math class from Dubai. Everyday in this regard is certainly an adventure. In total nearly 120-150 countries are represented in the international student body. Occasional bouts of loneliness are common here as I still haven't met many people, but I have tried to keep busy. Last night I went to see the Cornell Glee Club perform. It was a wonderful concert with many in tears by the end. During the school week there are plenty of things to do from climate change lectures I have been attending to my astronomy society meetings at the week's end. The observatory here uses a 12in refractor telescope built in 1922 and mechanized by a weight system. The original telescope is in continued use and remains one of only nearly 100 left worldwide. After several trainings, I now am able to use the scope and have spotted several features on the moon along with other planetary objects such as Neptune and M13. Unfortunately given the extraordinary amount of cloudy days here in Ithaca, it makes it difficult for ideal observing conditions. I also recently took a tour of an renewable energy facility for my 'Sustainable Energy Systems Writing Seminar' class. We traveled to Lake Source Cooling which utilizes a revolutionary system by leaching water from deep in Cayuga lake and pumping up to campus. This system is the primary system for air conditioning and ventilation on campus saving millions in electrical costs. The return warm water from campus is pumped back down the ridge to the cooling plant where it is a returned to a shallow part of Lake Cayuga. There are few environmental concerns with this system and it seems like a very efficient use of energy.
"Regional Advisories"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Current Weather Map"
(Courtesy of Wunderground)
"7-Day Forecast Discussion"(Updated 9/18)
High pressure will continue to dominate the northeast's weather through Monday night with dry air and few clouds over the region. Sunday night will be chilly especially for areas in southern New York and Pennsylvania who have been affected by mid level clouds the last few nights preventing ideal radiational cooling. H85 thermals will be on the rise towards midweek as an approaching shortwave will move towards the region with increasing precipitation chances. A slow moving front will allow rain to stream from the southeast as the humidity begins to rise. QPF totals are around 1in for many areas from Pennsylvania up through New England according to latest guidance. But given past climatological experiences, stalled fronts this time of year have the tendency to produce higher amounts of rainfall in isolated areas. I cannot rule out a few areas with 2in of rain this week causing some small stream and urban flooding given the wet antecedent conditions. Temperatures will be warmer into the low 80s for Maryland and up through the 70s up into southern New England. Given the mild nights expected, daily temperature anomalies will be near +5F normal. Several recent GFS/ECMWF runs are suggesting a cutoff low along the base of the trough towards the weekend, but that remains uncertain. It does appear though after Monday that this will generally be an unsettled and dreary week.
"Regional Radars"
(Courtesy of Wunderground)
"Regional Satellite"
(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)
"Winter Climatology/Forecast Discussion" (Updated 9/18)
As always nothing in long term forecasting is easy. This winter will be no exception, but several interesting players are definitely allowing for a multitude of possibilities. It now looks pretty likely that a La Nina will be the dominate feature across the equatorial Pacific. Recent ensemble and global model guidance is suggesting a weak to moderate La Nina with deviations around (-1)C. But encouraging signals out of the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific are suggesting another blocking regime. Summers featuring a -AO reading generally suggest a strong correlation to upstream blocking during the winter. This looks pretty likely especially for the beginning of winter. Strong indications are pointing towards a very cold December with warming anomalies especially across the Middle Atlantic later in the winter as the southeast ridge begins to rear its head. Given the current state of the QBO and other teleconnections, this winter will not be a total La Nina loss for the Middle Atlantic. Several periods especially will favor chances of snow. The greatest snowfall anomalies this winter look to be for those at least 100mi inland. The current state of the cryosphere is also encouraging for snow lovers given the recent building up of sea ice and snow cover especially across the northern hemisphere in Russia with anomalies are well above normal for snow cover. If we can continue this pattern there is a strong correlation between above normal snowfall in Russia in October to higher chances for a colder winter in the eastern CONUS. I will hopefully be issuing a more detailed winter forecast eventually.
"Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Average Date of First Freeze"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Fall Foliage Outlook" (Updated 9/18)
It is just beginning that time of year where myriads of colors appear in neighboring forests and mountain sides. Fall is that transitional season in preparation for the looming winter. Meadows begin to turn into golden browns and mountains to amber. It is an exciting time of year for those of us who wait all year to capture these mosaics of artistic works. At this point fall colors have generally been limited to distressed trees across parts of the northern Middle Atlantic. But up across northern New England colors of 10-30% are being reported in the higher elevations. This is courtesy of the drier and cooler air mass courtesy of this area of high pressure allowing for many areas receiving their first frosts and freezes in New England. Isolated light frosts were even reported as far south as northern Pennsylvania with temperatures in the mid 30s near Bradford. The recent and upcoming cool clear nights with sunny mild days will continue to enhance color especially for the higher elevations. Peak fall foliage for New England appears to be running near normal this year for dates with peaks around late September to early October. There are several concerns about the influence of the wet late summer and high winds from Hurricane Irene, but at this time foresters are not reporting too much damage or affect.
For those looking for early colors it is recommended to head up across the Adirondack's and White/Green Mountains of New Hampshire/Vermont. Parts of northern Maine are also reporting early color. Mount Washington and several other high peaks reported their first accumulating snowfall this past weekend certainly signaling the beginning of Fall. Interestingly enough, the northwest flow also allowed the lake effect machine to begin to crank with some weak bands coming off Lake Ontario in the form of heavy rain showers with isolated low rumbles of thunder. The northwest flow with an associated stratocumulus deck reduced the widespread threat of frost for much of upstate New York on Friday and Saturday mornings.
Pennsylvania Fall Foliage Reports... Link
Northeast Fall Foliage Reports... Link.
"Long Term Discussion" (Updated 9/18)
Early indications from both GFS/ECMWF long term H85 means were suggesting a mild end to September, but it now appears near normal to slight below normal temperatures (for northern locations) will continue across the eastern CONUS. A weak trough will continue to be across the Northeast, although slightly displaced. This will favor below normal temperatures especially towards New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine for the month's end. Elsewhere near normal anomalies are likely. A large ridge will be forming across the western United States through the Midwest associated and signaled by the +PNA. This will allow the warmest anomalies to be centered in this region. Precipitation chances look near normal for the next two weeks to finish off this month. But this will push several climatological locations to record yearly precipitation totals!
"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"
(Courtesy of NOAA)
Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.
"Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler"
(Courtesy of WGAL)
Reader Comments
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Typo fixed... Thanks! Yeah, I think it is really going to be worth it. Always seems to be big name companies here recruiting students... IBM, Microsoft, Google, Facebook were all here within the past week. I am certainly enjoying the weather up here so far, but I have already begun to take notice some of the local effects of Ithaca weather. A few trees are even showing leaf changes up here.
btw - tone it down with the cleaning...hahahahaha. you don't have to vacuum every Saturday.
as for the winter....it seems that most December's lately have been colder than normal. I guess that is the normal now.
Good luck on your prelim's....btw what are prelim's? can't be mid-terms yet
Hahah... Doesn't everyone love to be awoken by a roaring vacuum at 9am on a Saturday? Eh, just always have been a clean freak; room is spotless.
The semesters are broken up into three prelims (tests) followed by a final... no midterm. My first one is Astronomy this week.
Last January was pretty darn cold for once, usually the past few winters have always had warm Januarys. I think the winter could be pretty snowy for the I-81 corridor north of Baltimore this year and we won't be looking to our east for the snow like last winter.
Aw but that means liquid for the coastal plain :(. Oh well we need a break. Today was a gorgeous fall day. It even smelled like it, hahaha. Great blog as always btw.
Wonder if anything will go down this December 5th? Lol
Might want to rethink about traversing parts of VT and NY after the floods.
Nice this weekend here, 60's wind but still beach time.
If you get a chance try watching/or rowing on the Lake. Great spot for crew.
w00t
Keep up with the cleaning and you will not only be a phenomenon on campus, you will be sure to have a lot of dates. :-)
I'm not really in favour of a colder Winter, due to fuel costs).
T'was sunny here today, more sunshine tomorrow.
Gotta sleep.
0z ECMWF/GFS means really hang that trough around in the Northeast while the western states bake...
That's not fun after having 25" of rain the past 2 months. The ground is still saturated. you can cut the grass, but not sure where the water will go. When I drive by the Hershey Country Club they still have water sitting on some areas of the course.
Snow this winter will be acceptable. My kids may not like it come June. They already had 2 days off from the floods and this area doesn't plan for many days off from snow. Also, I would think the snow the past couple years was like an aberation. Usually, when we get hit with snow the coast is warmer and end up with rain. We haven't seen that the past couple of years. I do like the 322 streamers....they are like a surprise gift...you don't expect any snow...maybe flurries and you get 3" of powder.
As for vacuuming early on Saturday morning...I grew up with my Dad starting a project on Saturday morning, since he worked during the week. I am used to noise that early...my neighbors hated it. come 9am my Dad was hammering or sawing or something similar and they were trying to sleep in on a Saturday. hahahaha
UGH ain't the word. UGH UGH
First <=49F: September 18th
First <=39F: October 12th
First <=36F (Frost): October 19th
First <=32F: (Freeze): November 2nd
First <=29F: November 13th
Please make it stop. Please.
so far Sept 18th has been beat. i would guess October 12th will be beat also.
just 0.02" of rain this morning. It's beautiful right now. 70F and partly sunny conditions
I just finished reading NOAA's 40 page report on the Joplin tornado. It focuses mainly on social science and warning complacency problems which is really not too shocking given that the warning verification percentage is about 24% for tornadoes (and that's just for the polygon, you have to figure even less of the verifying warning polygon gets hit).
While I can't find any exact information either, I would assume early November based on the average October snowfall at Williamsport being .1" and Harrisburg being none.
I find it odd/interesting that Philly averages a trace in Oct. at the same time Harrisburg averages none. I'm thinking that's probably from hail which is included in the data.
Source: NCDC
Could be this: If during the 1981 - 2010 period, a trace of snow and/or sleet happened to fall one day at Philadelphia, but missed Harrisburg, that would count as Philadelphia averaging a Trace and Harisburg 0.
The 1981 - 2010 average first day of trace snow/sleet at Harrisburg (MDT) is November 18th.
I did a little quality check on that and Trenton averaged November 22nd during 1981 - 2010 so it sounds about right.
Wunderground has added a rediculous amount of daily & hourly airport summaries to their database. They have Middletown loaded back to about 1935 or so.
For the frost/freeze numbers, I entered the dates into an Exel spreadsheet, then highlighted all 30 dates and it gives you the average date in the bottom right hand corner.
For the first trace snow/sleet, I viewed the calander format beginning with each October. On the calander, snow and sleet always overide any other weather conditions, so it's easy to tell when the first snow/sleet fell. Then I entered the first dates into the spreadsheet.
There's a website I use for Trenton that already has average first/last dates listed.
Yeah, I was thinking mid-November sometime after the leaves had fallen. I remember a couple of years ago in October there was a snow event to our north that looked like it might clip us as well, and there was a lot of discussion about how out of the ordinary that was. It was a heavy, wet snow and the damage was made worse due to all the leaves still being on the trees.
What about Phila?
here's a pic from that event. It was October 15-16th, 2009. Big Flat Ridge in Adams County had 2" of snow.
If you are interested in Sustainable Energy, Google UN Agenda 21.
That was a miserable nor'easter at the Jersey Shore. Was visiting family down in Cape May and headed home during the peak of the storm.
Wasn't there a semi-slop event in late October 2008?
Yeah, the day in October 2008 was awsome. I was living in Langhorne PA at the time and locally we actually got a couple inches of very wet heavy snow. Some places right around our area saw no snow at all. It was one of those deals where a very heavy band of precip passed overhead and was heavy enough / cold enough to make it to the ground as snow. It fell as rain in areas with lighter precip rates. I was hoping it was a precurser to a good winter, but 08-09 turned out to be pretty crappy.
Really? I thought it was pretty good. It may fail in comparison to last winter and 2009-10 but it was a huge improvement over the vast nothing that I saw in 2007-08 and 2006-07. I got 5" from the 2/4/09 storm and 7" from the 3/1/09 storm. Decent deal by my standards.
1981 - 2010
FIRST FROST: October 30th
FIRST FREEZE: November 7th
FIRST SNOW/SLEET: December 6th
I remember at least 1 incident that year where a thin heavy band of snow parked itself over south Philadelphia into southern NJ where just over 8" fell, making a difference in season totals there. I barely saw anything from that band. I'm not so sure I got an event over 1" of pure snow. Almost everything mixed at some point. I also remember the bulk of accumulating snow came overnight, so a lot came while sleeping. Wasn't the worst of seasons, but below average and nothing memorable for me.
Here's some area totals from that season with seasonal average.
TOWN: ACTUAL" / AVERAGE"
Williamsport: 24.2" / 36.0"
State College: 26.3" / 45.6"
Allentown: 24.1" / 32.9"
Harrisburg: 15.5" / 30.6"
Trenton: 18.9" / 25.2"
Philadelphia: 22.8" / 22.4"
Wilmington: 16.1" / 20.2"
Atlantic City: 14.3" / 16.5"
more of the same for the winter possibly along 95? Blizz? Really? What about us in LSV? Where's the love? hahahhaha
Good news to me! I was a little bummed from your previous thoughts, Blizz, that the snow would all go west.
As luck would have it, we're having my daughter's graduation party this Saturday. Flood watch through early Saturday afternoon according to NWS - hopefully it really does stop raining then and people can get here! I'm a little concerned about the party and very tired of the rain. Bring on the snow!
Ahh.. that's more like it. Thanks for the LOVE. hahahaha
In previous posts I hope we get a few streamers as well. They are fun to watch
It's getting better all the tiiiiime.
Didn't you say this last fall, and during the January 26 storm? Hahaha
I did, hahaha. I was very surprised how well eastern areas did. But looking at climatological means... there have never been three 40in+ winters in Philadelphia in a row and there are similar statistics for other I-95 areas. The odds of another well above normal snowfall season are very slim just according to climatological means and ignoring the ENSO and other teleconnections. But adding the potentially low end moderate La Nina argues strongly the heavier snow amounts will be inland and along 40N and on northward. If all goes well... my winter forecast might be out this weekend! I still think most areas this winter will see at least normal snowfall along I-95.
Also, I assume at KMDT record status has been achieved for the year?
I don't think yet it has been recorded, but will eventually unless we have some freak drought, hahah. Most stations in the area are well above the record, but KMDT always seems to have low precip. totals. I used to always joke that the station is located under a roof. Also looking at the latest guidance and setup, I think most of the heavier rains will be out over the ocean or eastern New Jersey. I think total QPF for the week will be on the downside compared to forecasts.
I'd really love a week straight of dry weather, but it doesn't look like we're going to get any of that soon.
I'm not sure if anyone here recalls from the end of july, but there were tornadoes up here in springfield. I had a chance to drive by some of the damage and I stunned. I'd never seen in person the damage it can cause. There are streets where every house had to be rebuilt, the golf course near here took some pretty decent tree damage. Ship weather this goes along with what you're saying about the floods, just because it's off TV doesn't mean cleanup just ended with it. Months later people are still recovering.
Yeah yeah ok. Keep trying to wish the coastal plain's snow away. It won't work. Lol no, I guess that's fine by me. Personally I enjoy wintry mixes. I like to mix it up, haha. It's boring with plain snow or plain rain. Looking forward to your forecast.
A nothing storm on radar turned into 0.45 " in less than 30 min. hour. Rain flooded the wipers and caused localized bird baths at the low points. Had to drive from home turf to Rt 36 circle and the storm trained behind me.
Hope all is well seems a few buggers knocked out 3-5 others around the same time and the ranks thinned again. DUH.
It all depends on what the NAO wants to do, which is hard to forecast more than 2 weeks out. This winter setup "should" bring heavier snow inland and mixes to I-95, but we said that for the previous 2 winters while the NAO had other plans for us. Although Heavy Snow might have something to say about that for last year hahahahahahaha!
Anyway, go ahead and bring the heavy axis west since I;m out here now.
BTW Blizz, how are you with the Chain Rule in Calculus. Threw me for a loop this week. Was following right along through Limits & Continuity & Secant Lines / Tangent Lines into the Product Rule & Quotient Rule, then scratched my head and wanted to slam it against my desk for the Chain Rule!
My entire life now is based around Math & Calculus. Everyday, morning, afternoon, evening and actually overnight. Yes, I have had dreams about Calculus problems! Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh
When are we going to break from this pattern. Now from the forecast it won't occur until Wed?
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