The Northeast Weather Blog...

Observation Blog...

Posted by: Zachary Labe, 6:51 PM GMT en Junio 20, 2011

"Current Temperature"

"Current Dewpoint"

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

"Regional Radar"

"Regional Satellite"

"Regional Advisories"

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

"12hr Estimated Precipitation"

"Forecast Max Temperatures"

"Forecast Min Temperature"

"Forecast Weather at 2pm"

"Current Storm Reports"

"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here north of Harrisburg 2011 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 10
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 8
Tornado Watches- 3
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 28

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 8
Flood Warnings- 5
Flash Flood Warnings- 6
Monthly Precipitation- 4.09in
January Precipitation- 1.12in
February Precipitation- 2.74in
March Precipitation- 6.43in
April Precipitation- 10.47in
May Precipitation- 7.87in
June Precipitation- 4.57in
July Precipitation- 4.09in
Yearly Precipitation- 37.29in

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 2
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
90F days- 22
100F days- 2
Highest Temperature- 104F - 7/22/2011

Categories: Observation Blogs

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1. MariettaMoon 7:39 PM GMT en Junio 20, 2011
First mofo's! Member Since: Junio 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 676

2. TheRasberryPatch 10:01 PM GMT en Junio 20, 2011
Hey Blizz - i was at the beach over the weekend. It was interesting to see that the lower area of Delaware is not seeing that much rain. I assumer lower Maryland as well. The grass is yellow and the corn is curling. I also saw that Delaware is in a statewide buring ban. I saw you mentioned snow and ice levels low. For the rockies in the states I believe the snow levels are still at all time highs. Most ski resorts are still open and are only closing because of the help. Someone told me that ski resorts in Utah saw over 700 inches of snow this season. Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634

3. Zachary Labe 12:31 AM GMT en Junio 21, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch: Hey Blizz - i was at the beach over the weekend. It was interesting to see that the lower area of Delaware is not seeing that much rain. I assumer lower Maryland as well. The grass is yellow and the corn is curling. I also saw that Delaware is in a statewide buring ban. I saw you mentioned snow and ice levels low. For the rockies in the states I believe the snow levels are still at all time highs. Most ski resorts are still open and are only closing because of the help. Someone told me that ski resorts in Utah saw over 700 inches of snow this season. Yes, record snow levels across the Rockies affecting Yellowstone and Yosemite National Parks summer tourist season. The levels I referenced being low are across Canada and closer to the arctic circle. Those are the ones that affect the middle latitude weather patterns. Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14293

4. TheRasberryPatch 1:01 AM GMT en Junio 21, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92: Yes, record snow levels across the Rockies affecting Yellowstone and Yosemite National Parks summer tourist season. The levels I referenced being low are across Canada and closer to the arctic circle. Those are the ones that affect the middle latitude weather patterns. really, those parks are being affected by the snow from this winter and spring? wow. Did I also hear that the snow that they got was their biggest for a season? so Canada and the Arctic didn't get much snow this past winter? was it dry there? Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634

5. Zachary Labe 12:34 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch: really, those parks are being affected by the snow from this winter and spring? wow. Did I also hear that the snow that they got was their biggest for a season? so Canada and the Arctic didn't get much snow this past winter? was it dry there? Dry and warm across the well north. Typically if it is cold here in the middle latitudes, then it is warm up north. And yes record snow seasons. In fact I had heard the main highway through Yosemite was closed through the end of June. Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14293

6. MariettaMoon 1:38 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2011
Precip has been lacking in the Del-Mar-Va region, most notably the over the Maryland portion. Gulf water temp of 90F at Clearwater Beach, FL. For comparison, the Arapahoe Basin, Colorado ski resorts are typically open until the first weekend in June with the record longest of August 10th, 1995. Member Since: Junio 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 676

10. TheRasberryPatch 7:33 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2011
Blizz - I am a little confused. doesn't it need to be extremely cold to our north for us to have cold conditions? doesn't the extreme cold come from the upper areas of the north? Wow - Vail still getting snow? I guess you can't have a garden if you lived in the Rockies ski resorts P451 - is that accurate analysis? or speculation? Just curious. I don't think I heard about the results of the severe weather being tied in with the winter, but I also haven't looked for an explanation either. Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634

11. Zachary Labe 7:55 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch: Blizz - I am a little confused. doesn't it need to be extremely cold to our north for us to have cold conditions? doesn't the extreme cold come from the upper areas of the north? Wow - Vail still getting snow? I guess you can't have a garden if you lived in the Rockies ski resorts P451 - is that accurate analysis? or speculation? Just curious. I don't think I heard about the results of the severe weather being tied in with the winter, but I also haven't looked for an explanation either. Well the air mass needs to be initially very cold across the north. But then the polar vortex becomes displaced as the air mass moves southward. Therefore that couses above normal temperatures across the north while here in the contiguous United States it is cold. I hope that made sense, lol. Everything is vice versa for air mass temperatures across the arctic and middle latitudes. Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14293

12. TheRasberryPatch 8:15 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92: Well the air mass needs to be initially very cold across the north. But then the polar vortex becomes displaced as the air mass moves southward. Therefore that couses above normal temperatures across the north while here in the contiguous United States it is cold. I hope that made sense, lol. Everything is vice versa for air mass temperatures across the arctic and middle latitudes. so when the cold air dives south it is replaced with warmer air? I take it that warmer air comes from the mid latitudes. So the warm air that is being replaced with cold air in the mid latitudes doesn't just head out to sea it mostly likely moves north over the arctic? sounds like a love/hate thing for us....we love it cold, but also need it to be cold in the arctic and we can't have it both ways? Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634

13. Zachary Labe 12:19 AM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
TheRasberryPatch- The Earth's atmosphere is a fluid so all air masses eventually move over all locations modifying and such along their journey. Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14293

14. TheRasberryPatch 1:11 AM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92: TheRasberryPatch- The Earth's atmosphere is a fluid so all air masses eventually move over all locations modifying and such along their journey. Thank you Blizz any idea what to expect weatherwise for the next 5 days? Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634

15. Zachary Labe 1:18 AM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch: Thank you Blizz any idea what to expect weatherwise for the next 5 days? Scattered showers and thunderstorms with several stronger embedded waves moving through. Several chances at severe weather! Stay tuned! Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14293

16. TheRasberryPatch 1:27 AM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92: Scattered showers and thunderstorms with several stronger embedded waves moving through. Several chances at severe weather! Stay tuned! Today didn't seem like the WU prediction. It got very warm and humid late this afternoon and evening. Severe weather? I hope not. Haven't we had enough for the Spring? Do you expect any of the cells to move into the area this evening? For any golfers - the Hershey CC will be hosting a PGA event (it's for the pro's @ golf clubs) on Sun - Wed. I believe it will be on the Golf Channel. I haven't seen cchamp around in awhile. I wonder if the pro or pros at his course is playing? Hopefully, he has recovered from plowing this winter. Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634

17. TheRasberryPatch 12:39 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
not sure what happened to my profile picture. hmmmmmm Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634

18. Zachary Labe 1:47 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch: Today didn't seem like the WU prediction. It got very warm and humid late this afternoon and evening. Severe weather? I hope not. Haven't we had enough for the Spring? Do you expect any of the cells to move into the area this evening? For any golfers - the Hershey CC will be hosting a PGA event (it's for the pro's @ golf clubs) on Sun - Wed. I believe it will be on the Golf Channel. I haven't seen cchamp around in awhile. I wonder if the pro or pros at his course is playing? Hopefully, he has recovered from plowing this winter. If we fire off some instability today there definitely could be some severe cells. 0.38in of rain here in the last two days. Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14293

20. originalLT 2:01 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Yeah P451, looks like you'll get hit pretty hard. Me here in central Stamford, looks like I'll be on the edge of this batch. Just heard my first big thunder as I'm typing this. I'll let you know what I get. LT Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048

25. originalLT 2:53 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Very dark here now, getting some light rain but getting some lightning strikes with the thunder only one or two seconds after , so its really close. I think it will be pouring here very soon. LT Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048

26. originalLT 3:01 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Heavy rain started here at exactly 10:59AM , not much lightning, but it sure is coming down!LT Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048

27. originalLT 3:17 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
So far in 15 mins. of heavy rain my electronic rain guage has measured 0.66" of rain. 3 Big lightning /thunder combos between 11:06 and 11:09 AM . Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048

28. TheF1Man 3:18 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
LT just about the same conditions here. Lots of thunder, but only noticed 1 or 2 lightening strikes. Heavy rain has tapered to a mist/fog. More of this throughout the day? EDIT: Downpouring again. Member Since: Febrero 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 571

29. originalLT 3:28 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Hi TheF1Man, hope you are doing OK, yeah probably more of this thru out the day, looks like you still could get some more heavy rain out of this in the next half hour or so. When you look West to NJ or PA nothing big out there, NOW, but it could fire up again.LT Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048

30. wunderstorm87 3:55 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Big pocket of heating/sun/instability developing over the LSV now. The HRRR has a few supercells developing in "PA Tornado Alley" today. Member Since: Agosto 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588

31. wunderstorm87 4:15 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Quoting P451: All that heavy snow pack contributed to the severe weather outbreaks this Spring. You had colder than normal to your north and west. You had warmer than normal over the Gulf of Mexico. There was more moisture than usual from the NW and from the Gulf while drier than usual conditions came from the immediate west. The airmass clashing was much more violent this season due to the extremes all lining up more favorable across the board. Ultimately the increased snow pack is a result of the La Nina. It's more likely the La Nina's pattern itself contributed to the severe weather rather than the snow pack (which is just an effect of the pattern). Member Since: Agosto 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588

32. wunderstorm87 4:16 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Most of the models handled the cloud cover today terribly. The SPC rescinded their slight risk yesterday afternoon that they had since Day 4 but put it back this morning. Member Since: Agosto 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588

33. wunderstorm87 9:09 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Strong rotation on that storm near Vienna, NJ. Mount Holly needs to get a warning to the south of the existing one right now. Member Since: Agosto 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588

34. wxgeek723 9:47 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
Whoa. Shame P451's gone BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 531 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY... NORTHWESTERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 600 PM EDT * AT 527 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR CASSVILLE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... JACKSON BY 535 PM EDT... JACKSONS MILLS BY 545 PM EDT... FREEWOOD ACRES BY 555 PM EDT... ADELPHIA...WEST FREEHOLD...HOWELL AND EAST FREEHOLD BY 600 PM EDT... Member Since: Agosto 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2350

35. wunderstorm87 10:16 PM GMT en Junio 22, 2011
A couple pics from GR2Analyst from that storm that produced the funnel cloud... This was about 5 or so minutes before the funnel cloud was spotted and the warning was issued. The storms have now weakened significantly but this was an impressive supercell structure for NJ. (NOTE: I had to change the tilt by about a degree due to the proximity to the radar) Member Since: Agosto 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588

38. TheF1Man 12:31 AM GMT en Junio 23, 2011
Hi LT I am doing well and I hope you are too. Yep after this morning nothing major hit, just some moderate stuff coming down now. The rain is good for the plants and in small amounts like this. Member Since: Febrero 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 571

39. MariettaMoon 3:39 AM GMT en Junio 23, 2011
Haven't seen crap out here Member Since: Junio 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 676

41. Zachary Labe 2:25 PM GMT en Junio 23, 2011
Let's see what today brings. Clouds are thinning a bit in central Pennsylvania. We need a stronger trigger for convection than the last few days. Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14293

42. originalLT 2:53 PM GMT en Junio 23, 2011
Morning Blizz, P451 looks like a strong cell might hold together and pass over the Ossining area in a half hour or so, although it may be weakening abit.LT May even "clip" me! Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048

43. MariettaMoon 8:07 PM GMT en Junio 23, 2011
Part of Route 202 in northeastern New Jersey is under 3 feet of water. Member Since: Junio 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 676

44. MariettaMoon 8:39 PM GMT en Junio 23, 2011
Wow. The river at Minot ND is expected to crest at 7 feet above the record stage. Records there date back into the 1800's. Member Since: Junio 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 676

45. Hoynieva 8:57 PM GMT en Junio 23, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon: Wow. The river at Minot ND is expected to crest at 7 feet above the record stage. Records there date back into the 1800's. massive snowpack, warmth and heavy rains = more crazy floods. Mississippi -> Missouri -> Souris... Member Since: Enero 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292

46. goofyrider 9:47 PM GMT en Junio 23, 2011
total of 0.3 in for Wed and today. @35 is the radar in the lower image showing a debris pattern? Member Since: Febrero 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1887

47. wunderstorm87 9:53 PM GMT en Junio 23, 2011
Quoting goofyrider: @35 is the radar in the lower image showing a debris pattern? Nope, that's just some rain wrapping around the rotating updraft of the supercell. Typically anything 55 to 60dbz or greater is associated with a "debris ball" because hail won't occur in that area of the storm. I don't believe that storm had a confirmed tornado either, just a funnel cloud that never touched down. Member Since: Agosto 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588

49. Zachary Labe 1:31 AM GMT en Junio 24, 2011
Finally... incoming thunderstorm headed my way Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14293

50. wunderstorm87 1:34 AM GMT en Junio 24, 2011
I had a 20 to 30mph wind gust here with this severe thunderstorm warning. I just hit my low temperature today of 68F and it's still dropping fast. Member Since: Agosto 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588

51. originalLT 2:32 AM GMT en Junio 24, 2011
Wound up with 2.30" of rain here, basically from two "lines" of T. Storms that came through in the afternoon. There was quite abit of flooding here in the NYC metro area, and some trees down, one unfortunately was on the Merrit Parkway, when it fell it hit a car and the man who was driving was killed by it. He was from Mass. just driving through the area. Very sad, you never know, you've got to be so careful with these storms. LT Stamford CT. Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation:	520 ft
Temperatura:	64.6 ° F
Punto de rocío:	51.3 ° F
Humedad:	62%
Viento:	Sin viento
Ráfagas de viento:	0.0 mph
Updated: 10:01 PM EDT en Mayo 17, 2013 Station History