Unsettled weather ahead...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:01 PM GMT en Agosto 13, 2010

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I find myself often asked by many, "Why do you like the weather?" Of course one would think it is a simple question with a simple answer as something like because of "tornadoes and hurricanes." But my passion for the weather is far beyond the instances of severe weather and destruction. I cannot pinpoint a day, time, of year where I developed an interest for the atmosphere, climate, and weather, but since elementary school I have been the go to person for checking the weather. Like many sciences, meteorology is a growing field with a wealth of knowledge yet to be gained and understood. In fact the advent of technology such as the media and internet have brought about radical changes in forecasting just in the past decade. And now in an ever important decade focused on climate change, the weather is a growing and developing topic for many. It is often thought of as a converstation starter and is discussed by everyone. I can remember watching the 2003 President's Day snowstorm interviews on The Weather Channel with Paul Kocin. I can remember the exact snowfall forecast map with 2ft+ progged for central Pennsylvania. And yes I can remember as a mere toddler pulling my sled along the massive snow 'walls' from the snowplow after the January of 96' blizzard. And now as my adventure slings towards college and soon real world job application in my field, I find it ever important to not only understand the basis of the atmosphere, but to apply it to new theories. A scientific field cannot grow without research and development and more theological applications. Meteorology is the understanding of the science and application to using the knowledge to the benefit of the general public's wellfare. I was even asked many times, "Why do you not want to use your intelligence to be a doctor or lawyer?" Most of the times unfortunately, people often equivalent meteorology to the weatherman on TV. But atmospheric sciences is a difficult field that actually benefits society in many ways beyond the simple weatherman/green screen. It is a science based on calculus equations and physics theorys. In the end, I know how fortunate I have been. To be able to reach a lifelong passion at a young age is a often jealous and fortunate attribute. There is certainly no hesistation in "What do you want to be when you grow up?"

A common occurence in the typical Middle Atlantic summer... Two week long dry period then followed by a month's worth of rain in a short period of time. This is the definitive catalyst for flash flooding with the common season being Summer. The common setup... stalled front, increasing PWATs aloft enhanced by tropical moisture, and wave of low pressure along quasi-stationary boundary. Combine these dynamics with surface instability and boom... you have slow moving thunderstorms with an abundance of moisture. FFG remains about normal, with higher numbers in western Pennsylvania.

But despite what FFG shows, 3in of rain in less than an hour is going to cause problems wherever. KCXY reported 3.01in of rain in one hour on August 12, 2010 from a collection of slow moving thunderstorms associated with an MCV. For more information on the flash flood event... Link. The upcoming week will feature a period of unsettled weather across the entire northern Middle Atlantic. High pressure located over the southern Canadian maritimes a weak southeast ridging will create a squeeze play for a slow moving front to stall near and just to the south of the I-81 corridor. Anomalous moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico courtesy of the remnants of the recent tropical depression will set up the catalyst for an abundance of showers and thunderstorms daily along the quasi-stationary boundary. This puts the southern half of Pennsylvania and all of Maryland and Delaware at risk for unsettled weather from Sunday through Friday. The ECMWF will score high on verification charts, highlighting this threat for nearly a week. In fact in correlation with a few convective feedback errors, at one point ECMWF runs were printing our nearly 3-5in of rain for the upcoming week over eastern portions of the northern Middle Atlantic. While everyday will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, not all areas will receieve rain. In fact there may be areas that receive little to no rain this week, while others see an additional 3in or so. So the typical forecast will suffice each day this week...

Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Storms may be produce heavy rain. Highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Any breaks in the clouds should be enough in the thermodyamic field to produce some SBCAPE along with tapping the shearing winds aloft enough to produce a wet microburst or two. Isolated severe weather will be a threat each day with the highest threat on Monday.

Difficult but simple forecast essentially for the following week. At least temperatures will remain normal to below normal extinguishing at least the heat wave threat for now. Alright the rest of the blog will be a bit of a rant I need to get off my chest... Every morning I follow a simple routine, shower then read the newspaper. I am always a bit surprised in the editorial section with articles on climate change. While I find it great people are taking an interest in protecting the unique planet of Earth, it is easier said than done. The May through August time period has been dominated by lag effects from one of the strongest El Ninos on record. ENSO lag effects often occur months later despite shifts in SST anomalies; meaning despite current La Nina characteristics, the boundary layer atmosphere remains having the effects from the El Nino several months ago. A quick basis in the ENSO knowledge data base quickly advects the idea of warmer than normal surface temperatures globally. In fact the 1998 El Nino correlated with some of the warmest temperatures globally on record. Then as the El Nino diminished, so did Earth's temperatures resulting a decade of slightly cooler temperatures 2000-2010. Anti-anthropogenic global warming advocates are quickly to announce cooling, but take away 98' and essentially there has not been much cooling or warming in the past decade. 2010 will be up there in terms of warmest years on record globally, but it is another anomaly. The excuse that the Moscow droughts and heatwaves are correlated with global warming, just does not have enough evidence. It would be the same for me to gesture the anomalous snowfall on the east coast in the United States is evidence global warming does not exist. Short term weather disasters provide very little evidence for either arguement. It is irrelevant to argue the anomalous weather in 2010 is evidence of anything other than a tumultuous habitat of planet Earth that date centuries before.

While yes we can change our lightbulbs to CFLs, or buy a hybrid car, but how much of a difference is that going to make. Lag effects in stratospheric temperatures have been proven to date nearly 50-100 years; meaning whatever effects CO2 levels currently is having on the Earth, we will not see for many years. Yes I think it is important for climatological awareness, but more public knowledge is necessary before blanket statements are juxtaposed.

Regional updating radar...


"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 11
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 17

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 3
Flood Warnings- 2
Monthly Precipitation- 3.58inches
Yearly Precipitation- 25.88inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 31
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)

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106. goofyrider
9:54 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
Spring Lake

Early pm storms were intense dropped about 0.4 to 0.3 in
Member Since: Febrero 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2795
105. originalLT
9:16 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
So far by me, 0.97". Again I'm just missing the really heavy cells that are moving NE, they are passing to my NW.
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
104. Zachary Labe
8:47 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
0.65in of rain so far today now.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
100. pittsburghnurse
4:08 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
Quoting P451:
Thanks, nurse.

I seem to be doing better. The leg swelling is way down now and the hand is coming along.

I think I'm in the clear.

Been almost 24 hours now.

Don't feel anything else going on either.


That is all good news. Glad to hear it.
Member Since: Octubre 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
99. originalLT
3:23 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
I've been just missing some of the heavier showers this morning, as they have been passing off to my NW, as they rotate around the main low which seems to be centered SW of Syracuse NY. It has a big precip. area. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
96. originalLT
2:12 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
Same here Blizz, I have 0.60" so far, with more to come.
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
95. Zachary Labe
1:29 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
0.60in of rain so far today.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
94. pittsburghnurse
12:12 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
Quoting P451:
Thanks everyone. Yeah, it hurts. Pretty foggy this am for certain. Got the jitters. Stinging has subsided but the hand and calf are awfully swollen.

Going to take it easy today.

Kept the morning walk at just a half mile and at a slower pace this morning. Don't want to be pushing it.

But generally feel alright.


--0-

Meanwhile, got a quick shower this morning. Very humid out there. Seems a good chance for rain today although the best shot as you see is for the hudson valley region stretching westward. They could get 3 inches in some cases.

I look poised for about .5-1.0 depending on what lines up with me.

Yet finally it would seem we will get an actual good soaking rain.

*crosses fingers* ...well, at least the ones on my right hand. lol


P, here comes the nurse in me. You may want to contact the dr. You may need an epi injection and/or some corticosteroids to calm down the reaction. That's a hefty number of stings you got.

Hope you get your rain. We had plenty here in Pittsburgh during the night. Looks like a comfortable week ahead for us, close to seasonal values.
Member Since: Octubre 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
92. originalLT
3:09 AM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
Blizz, I found a one page question and answer paper from NOAA on La Ninia and El Nino which explains it pretty well. the site is.. www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
91. pittsburghnurse
12:58 AM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
Quoting P451:
Despite the trends I am more confident that we're all going to get it pretty good tomorrow.


Meanwhile gardening is just about done. Still getting Grape/Cherry tomatoes, some peppers, stringbeans still comeing about.

Everything else is done though.

Big tomatoes I chose a dozen that I thought had a chance and cut the plants down to them.


Off topic...; had a cousin ask me to spray some plants. Long story short I happened upon and underground yellow jacket nest. Apparently they don't like miracle grow.

Got stung 10-20 times.

If those were "real" bees I wouldn't be talking to yas. Takes about 3-4 "real" bee stings and I'm in a box.

:/

Doped up on benadryl. Trying to stay awake so I dont end up napping now and waking up at 2am.

Talk about scary. Suddenly covered in the things and while I'm ripping then off of me I'm thinking... IM DONE.

Cause, if they WERE "real" bees, I would have been.

:/

Thank god they were just the ground dwelling yellow jackets.



Oh you must be awfully sore. You are probably in la la land from the benadryl. I feel for you. Feel better.
Member Since: Octubre 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
90. Zachary Labe
12:42 AM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010
originalLT- Hmmm, I have always thought the exact opposite. O well, haha. I mean no one was forecasting this dramatic switch to La Nina, and if you look back at La Nina years, the tropics were always quiet for the most part.

TheRasberryPatch- Looks like overnight through the morning. Monday may feature a good chance all day.

P451- O dear, that sounds terrible. Well take a rest...
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
89. originalLT
9:17 PM GMT en Agosto 21, 2010
Take care P451, I'm glad you are generally OK. I know they are not "Real Bees", BUT they are in the wasp family, and they do hurt, especially 10-20 stings.
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
87. TheRasberryPatch
8:29 PM GMT en Agosto 21, 2010
Blizz - when will the rain come into the area and for how long?
Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
86. originalLT
7:24 PM GMT en Agosto 21, 2010
Blizz, I'm pretty sure, from checking Dr. M's blog and Storm W, that they and all the experts thought that transitioning from a strong El Nino to a moderate or strong La nina would lead to an increase in tropical activity, due in main part to a lessening of wind sheer. Obviously, something else is at play that is keeping down the number of tropical cyclones that have formed so far this year. Saharen dust? etc. Must be other stuff too.
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
85. Zachary Labe
7:16 PM GMT en Agosto 21, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
Blizz please clarfy for me, I thought or was led to believe that a strong El Nino is associated with low tropical activity. So a strong La Nina will do the same thing? A more nuetral set-up is more conducive for tropical developement?( The El nino leads to more wind sheer etc.)

I thought it was La Nina. One major factor that they were calling for an active tropical season was the El Nino ENSO status. But honestly I am not certain and I claim limited knowledge in the tropical field.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
84. originalLT
6:52 PM GMT en Agosto 21, 2010
Blizz please clarfy for me, I thought or was led to believe that a strong El Nino is associated with low tropical activity. So a strong La Nina will do the same thing? A more nuetral set-up is more conducive for tropical developement?( The El nino leads to more wind sheer etc.)
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
83. Zachary Labe
6:16 PM GMT en Agosto 21, 2010
originalLT- Yep they are all self-updating. Unfortunately though that means some images of storms are lost unless I save them to imageshack or something like that.

NYCvort- Thanks! That is likely; many people did not expect this sudden swing to La Nina status. And La Ninas are associated with low activity in the tropics.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
82. NYCvort
4:08 PM GMT en Agosto 21, 2010
Great read. Blizz, do you think that ENSO lag effects are responsible for the sheared Atlantic and underachieving hurricane season thus far?
Member Since: Junio 20, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 144
81. originalLT
3:57 PM GMT en Agosto 21, 2010
Blizz, as an experiment, I went back to your June 2010 postings, and checked the graphics that you had posted back then . They continue to up-date! The radar is current, and the northeast Vis. sat. photo is current too! Kind of interesting it does that.The other graphics are up to date too.
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
80. Zachary Labe
2:13 PM GMT en Agosto 21, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
Good morning, just looked at the Atlantic Vis. Sat. photo, everything still looks so "linear" in appearence, nothing circular, but they still have just made that area South of the Cape Verde Islands an invest. Also in Dr. M's blog they are mentioning some possible storm that may form off the SC/NC coast and affect us in the next few days. A Barclonic low most likely,Blizz, do you see this?

Yep, this low should affect us Sunday through Monday with a chane of rain.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
79. originalLT
1:49 PM GMT en Agosto 20, 2010
Good morning, just looked at the Atlantic Vis. Sat. photo, everything still looks so "linear" in appearence, nothing circular, but they still have just made that area South of the Cape Verde Islands an invest. Also in Dr. M's blog they are mentioning some possible storm that may form off the SC/NC coast and affect us in the next few days. A Barclonic low most likely,Blizz, do you see this?
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
77. TheRasberryPatch
12:21 PM GMT en Agosto 20, 2010
Blizz - I am playing in a golf tournament this weekend....late Saturday morning into the afternoon and Sunday morning. From looking at WU forecast there may be some winds 5-10mph Saturday and stronger on Sunday. What do you think?

as far as the tropics - i've seen many times to have a very quiet period and then September hits. so don't be concerned with what hasn't happened. i'd wait to talk about the tropics when November or December rolls around.
Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
76. TheF1Man
4:28 AM GMT en Agosto 20, 2010
LT they seem almost desperate to have a storm( as horrible as that sounds) just to keep some reputation. It's funny how TWC has to write stories on their site about past hurricanes to remind people of the destruction. you could say the're trying to keep people informed, but sadly its all about tv ratings these days. just my opinion.

Member Since: Febrero 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
75. originalLT
4:22 AM GMT en Agosto 20, 2010
Blizz,boy you are sure right about the tropics, at least so far. Now they keep hinting the season will get busy soon and run very actively into deep October. Of course we'll see. If it doesn't verify, it will be interesting to hear the excuses or explanations from the Tropical Experts! Zotty you are right too, the tropics look so quiet for late August( although maybe something is now trying to form off the African coast).
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
74. Zachary Labe
11:36 PM GMT en Agosto 19, 2010
Quoting zotty:
just looked at the tropics- how often can one look at that page in late August and see ZERO storms. that is probably global warming at work, too.

Boy those tropical hurricane forecasts look like they will really fail. We still have a bit too go, but considering how active the forecasts said it would be, this is a disaster in their spectrum.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
73. weathergeek5
9:58 PM GMT en Agosto 19, 2010
Quoting P451:
Drips and drops, fellas, drips and drops.

I should have expected as much.


I'm sure to pay for this. Probably in the form of a strong coastal riding tropical system that then drops a foot of rain, devastating coastal flooding, etc...

Weather has been quite off the norm the past few years to be certain.

While my region is always a place of extremes this is way out of bounds.

Well, back to watering everything until the county tells us no more (I expect that soon enough).



Nothing in between just extremes it seems to be what happens lately.
Member Since: Diciembre 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
72. zotty
9:25 PM GMT en Agosto 19, 2010
just looked at the tropics- how often can one look at that page in late August and see ZERO storms. that is probably global warming at work, too.
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 754
71. Zachary Labe
4:55 PM GMT en Agosto 19, 2010
*New blog likely coming out tomorrow or so.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
69. TheRasberryPatch
10:56 PM GMT en Agosto 18, 2010
same here Blizz....it looks like the rain didn't get to my area this week...i just hope the weekend will be sunny and warm
Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
68. Zachary Labe
10:42 PM GMT en Agosto 18, 2010
Dry day up here with just a drop or two of rain.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
67. originalLT
9:04 PM GMT en Agosto 18, 2010
TheF1Man, first hi, second,it does seem just like what we faced in southern CT. in the winter!
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
65. TheF1Man
4:36 PM GMT en Agosto 18, 2010
Yep Blizz LT has is right, i'm in the bridgeport/trumbull area.

P451 i understand your frustration with the rain shield as that's what i had during the winter! I wonder if that second wave of rain will push up northward enough for you?
Member Since: Febrero 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
62. TheRasberryPatch
11:44 AM GMT en Agosto 18, 2010
Blizz - I was thinking similar about tree foliage last week. When we had those 100 degree days I saw a few of my trees stressed big time. I have a dogwood that lost 1/3 of its leaves and the ones that are left on have 1/4 of its surface brown. Another tree dropped most of its leaves. I bet throughout the area it's like that with the trees and bushes. Still though there are a lot of trees that don't look as stressed. I guess it's a wait and see.

Looks like the rain passed to our south.
Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
61. originalLT
3:48 AM GMT en Agosto 18, 2010
Blizz, I think TheF1Man is 20-30 miles, ENE of me, near the Bridgeport CT. area.
Member Since: Enero 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
60. Zachary Labe
2:17 AM GMT en Agosto 18, 2010
TheF1Man- Tight precipitation gradient. In fact it is extremely reminsent of this past winter. Keep an eye on the radar tomorrow. Where is your exact location again?

wxgeek723- Thanks! Not too sure on the Fall yet; I will release my thoughts in a week or two. But Fall foliage I expect to be a terrible year considering the warmth and widespread dry weather. Even if we get a widespread tropical deluge, I think it is too late. Many trees are alreay seeing signs of stress. Colors will likely be dull this year in the Middle Atlantic.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
59. wxgeek723
1:50 AM GMT en Agosto 18, 2010
Quoting P451:
Looking at radar presentation this evening of the weather to our south and it's progression I'm feeling confident a lot of us will be getting rain tomorrow afternoon. Especially those of us who have watched storm after storm die on our doorsteps.

Tomorrow seems like a much higher chance that does not happen.


P451, that's good to hear. I can relate when it comes to the recent dryness. I mowed my lawn today and around half of it is yellow-brown, and has been that way since June. The only real significant rain totals we've had this summer have come from a severe thunderstorm on June 24 and the July 13-14 system. The storms on July 25 and August 11 predominantly eluded me.

Out of curiosity, how far are you from the ocean and the Parkway? Just trying to get an idea of where you're at.

Anyway, great entry as is usually the case Blizz. I guess for people interested in meteorology, climate change can be grouped with politics and religion as topics that should not be debated due to the following controversy, lol. I can relate to what you're saying in the top as well. Before, people have asked me why I don't want to be an engineer or biologist since I do have a keen interest in those topics. Still, meteorology far surpasses them on the list.

What are your thoughts on Fall? Prolonged warmth and delayed foliage?
Member Since: Agosto 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3652
58. TheF1Man
1:19 AM GMT en Agosto 18, 2010
Has the forecast changed since yesterday? that QPF had me at least getting an inch but now looking at the forecast from TWC i'm getting 0-a trace?

either way it won't make a dent in the deficet
Member Since: Febrero 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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