Severe Thunderstorm Watch; Middle Atlantic...

By: Zachary Labe , 6:41 PM GMT en Julio 20, 2009

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 7/20)
Good afternoon!!! So as usual I am always thinking new ideas up for my Wunderground blogs for improvement. Below you will probably notice the removal of the Wildfire and Forest Fire section. Despite living in a state with a wide variety of forests and mountains, there is little to only isolated areas of forest fires each year in the state. So for more popularity I thought I would add on a section detailing the forecasts for the Chesapeake Bay for the upcoming week. While marine influences usually are only forecast for a few days, I can provide an outlook on what to expect for the upcoming week. The Chesapeake Bay Outlook should have a large interest for readers. This brought me to my next idea, what if I expanded the blog to include parts of the other states in the Middle Atlantic specifically the Northern Middle Atlantic including Maryland and Delaware and perhaps New Jersey. Many readers are already in these states asking for their forecasts especially in winter, and it would allow for a larger audience of readers. It would not take much to convert the blog to include a slightly broader area. But before any major changes occur for a while, I would like some feedback on the idea from current readers. Please post comments with feedback below or shoot me a Wunderground Mail. Anyways enough wild ideas for one day. By the way for those interested in some of my Italy/Greece pictures, I hope to post a few towards the end of the week.

I keep looking a weather maps every morning and it amazes me this Summer in the lack of extreme weather. While this is a good thing in terms of injury/fatality/damage, it is odd how really everything has been quiet. After a blockbuster severe weather season last year from the powerful La Nina to a lacking severe weather season especially when the Vortex 2 storm chasers are trying to gather scientifical data to predict tornadoes, meanwhile they are left lacking any severe weather. So now look at tropics, we are nearing the end of July without a named storm in the Atlantic basin. Will we finish the month without a named storm in the Atlantic? Impossible to say but global forecast models are not predicting any storms in the next seven days. Also a quiet season in the eastern Pacific with only four named storms with a late start also. While El Nino and such can be to blame, the idea of lack in extreme weather is still pretty remarkable. There hasn't been any remarkable floods or even EF-5 tornadoes with only two EF-4 tornadoes. The Summer has been pretty quiet, and there even has been a lack of large heat expansion out side the southwest states. And for us in the east the summer has been anything but typical. The climate information for Harrisburg from KMDT shows only one day above normal for temperatures this month with the rest below normal every day, pretty impressive to say the least. But is Summer making a run at the east coast any time soon? Check out my August outlook below. Have a wonderful day!

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion" (Updated 7/20)
A look at the Water Vapor Loop shows an evident trough over the Great Lakes and central US with moisture streaming up the east coast. Temperatures remain below normal across the region with H85s only around 13C across the state. A stratus and cumulus deck will begin to stream across the entire state during the day Monday. PWATs will begin to rise to around 1.3inches across the southeastern part of the state with rising dewpoints into the 60s. Along a stalled frontal boundary will be a weak developing low along the boundary that will move up the coast. A few descrepancies arise thanks to placement of the precipitation with NAM shifting precipitation more to the west and the GFS keeping the highest QPF offshore from Pennsylvania. Despite solutions rain showers will develop in western Pennsylvania with an upper level feature with QPF around .1inch Monday night. Clouds will thicken over the east as the marine layer moves in from offshore. The low pressure off the east coast will move northeast Tuesday and a disturbance will rotate along the trough axis in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. PWATs will rise to near 1.5inches for areas south of I-80. Conditions will decline Tuesday as the stratus deck lowers to MVFR conditions for most locations with ceilings around 1200ft lowering to near 800ft during rain showers. With a marine influence little surface CAPE instability will be able to develop Tuesday preventing widespread thunderstorms. Western Pennsylvania QPF through Tuesday night should be near .25inches and eastern PA QPF near .5inches. Central Pennsylvania may be caught in an area of subsidence, but still rain showers are expected with QPF up to .25inches. Clouds will lower Tuesday night with RH values near 100%. IFR conditions will occur in eastern areas. As the low moves northeast Wednesday dry air will move in for a partly to mostly cloudy day with little if any rainfall. Another disturbance rotates in on Thursday with slightly more humid and warmer conditions. PWATs may rise to near 2inches which is several deviations above normal. H85s will remain near 13C preventing any boundary layer temperature from rising in the upper 80s. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday in the afternoon. Towards the week several strong vortices of energry may try to rotate in from the Great Lakes, but confidence remains low. The forecast this week remains very difficult in terms of timing and exact precipitation placement.

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"

(Courtesy of Weather Underground)

"Weekly Forecast" (Updated 7/20)
Tuesday- As the best jet dynamics keep the heaviest rain to the east of Pennsylvania and a wave moves up the trough axis in western Pennsylvania, rain showers will be found across Pennsylvania, but particularily in eastern and western thirds of PA. Central Pennsylvania may be caught in a dry loop for a good portion of the day. Rainfall totals in eastern and western areas should generally be around a quarter of an inch with central Pennsylvania around a tenth of an inch or less. Cloudy conditions will prevail statewide keeping temperatures well below normal by about 10-15degrees with highs in the low to mid 70s statewide. Also low clouds may be common especially be in southeastern areas with ceilings as low as 800ft during rain showers. Towards Tuesday night some light fog may occur in the east in the Allentown to Philadelphia corridor with 2-4mile visibilities. Drier air will move in across the region towards early Wednesday morning behind the coastal low then affecting New England with heavier rainfall. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s once again a few degrees below normal.

Wednesday- Dry air with an area of subsidence should prevail for a majority of the day with partly to mostly cloudy skies under occasional stratus and cumulus decks. Highs will be much warmer than Tuesday and nearing the 80s in southern areas with mid to upper 70s across the mountains. Winds may also shift during the day from the east-southeast to the southwest causing more humid conditions with rising dewpoints into the upper 60s. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Laurel Highlands and southeast Piedmont with any sea breezes near Philadelphia or orographic lift in the mountains. Wednesday night will feature an increase in clouds ahead of the next disturbance with a few rain showers in the west with rainfall less than a tenth of an inch. Lows Wednesday night will generally be in the 60s statewide right around normal values.

Thursday- Another disturbance moves in over the region with a bit more wider chance of showers and thunderstorms. Also there will be a bit less of a marine influence allowing warmer surface temperatures as highs rise into the upper 70s to low 80s statewide. Showers and thunderstorms will be hit or miss, but areas that see rainfall may see totals for the day upwards of a half an inch or so. Training thunderstorms may also be a threat especially in the eastern half of the state. This day will be more summerlike than the other wet day this week Tuesday which will feature fall-like stratiform rain. Thursday night will feature rain showers across the state with rainfall totals around a tenth of an inch. Lows will be in the 60s statewide.

Friday- A strong disturbance will rotate southward from the Great Lakes. Decent heating of the lower layers will cause temperatures to warm into the 80s for most locations with dewpoints rising to near 70. Showers and thunderstorms will be a common place especially during the afternoon for many areas. Isolated severe weather is possible across the entire state. Friday night will feature dying thunderstorms and rain showers likely totaling rainfall up to a tenth of an inch. Lows will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s statewide.

"Chesapeake Bay Marine Forecast" (Updated 7/20)
As you already noticed this is the new addition to my Summer weekly weather blog. I replaced the forest fire section due to low audience interest and low forecast activity. This Bay forecast will provide forecasts for those with interests along the water each week. Although marine conditions change within every hour; this forecast will provide a basis for conditions that can be expected this week. Below is a map posted for current wind speeds and direction for the hour. Feedback on the section good or bad is appreciated.

An onshore flow will be featured for the majority of this week across local waters. As a coastal low works up the coast with high pressure over the Great Lakes, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten over the region with winds increasing over the waters near 13-17knots causing some rougher conditions over the water with possible small craft thresholds being reached for Monday early evening through Tuesday night. Also the onshore flow coupled with the new moon Tuesday should cause astronomical high tide to be several feet above normal (1-3ft). This may cause some splashover at vunerable areas on the western shore. Coastal flood advisories may be needed according to the NWS in Sterling and Mt. Holly. As high pressure moves in later in the week with still disturbances rotating in across the region, the flow will shift from the east to the south-southwest which again will cause water to build up with higher than normal tidal levels about 1-2ft above normal. This period will be from Wednesday through Thursday. Also winds will be slightly breezy near 10-13knots in this time period. As the front remains in the vicinity through the week additional waves of precipitation and tighter pressure gradients could affect the coast through the weekend. Wave levels this week will generally be around 1ft. Thunderstorms are also a threat this week along with periods of heavier rain especially Tuesday and later this week. This may cause periods of more threatening wave and wind conditions. Overall this week does not appear the best for those attempting some leisure time on the water as general small craft advisories will be posted throughout the week.

"Current Wind Speed and Direction along Chesapeake Bay"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Gardening Outlook" (Updated 7/20)
Well the garden is doing wonderful with my perennials looking great as many were planted this year thanks to a new flower bed. I also added a lot of new bird feeders this Summer to replace older ones with one including a cage around it to protect it from the squirrel population and a new feeder catering to Gold Finches with the Nyjer seed. Since I live in the foothills of a mountain, I have an abundant amount of Finches now at the feeder. Gold and other Finches live in the mountains. I wish I had added this feeder earlier as it is wonderful to watch the exotic looking Gold Finches. The vegetables are doing wonderful except for a few exceptions. My celery plants are finally beginning to thicken the stalks and a few stalks may need to be picked shortly. My Swiss Chard is doing wonderful in fact it appears I planted way too many plants (6). The flavor of chard is reminiscent of Spinach. The leeks are getting larger, but still have a ways to go. My other herbs look great with the parsley though be slightly eaten by some little critter. Otherwise my oregano, basil, and chives look great. Sadly though it appears my cilantro plant is slowly dying. The Garlic is doing great and should be ready for picking come the end of August or early September. The Yellow and Red Onions also may need to be picked in a week or two, though I have been picking them throughout the entire Spring and Summer. My Summer Radishes are doing well, but I think I need to do some thinning. My cucumbers are great although I am not completely pleased with the pickling cucumber taste so I will probably go with another variety next year. The zucchini is another story; yes I am picking about one a day but it comparison to last year this year's harvest is much smaller. I think it has something to do with the cooler weather. Something though I noticed today is small red insect eggs underneath a few of the leaves. I am not sure what they are, but I squashed the ones I could find. My tomatoes are doing pretty poor in terms of ripening. I have plenty of green tomatoes of all varieties, but they are just not ripening for picking. Again this is the same case with my peppers. I have green peppers, but I only eat the red ones. The yellow wax beans will be ready for picking within the next few days and they look absolutely wonderful. A little brown butter and sugar with yellow beans is just fantastic. My beets are also growing and I have found they grow a lot slower than radishes and require more room. My melons are doing well in fact I have a large mellon now the size of those miniature footballs. Does anyone know how to tell when to pick them?

This week will feature ample rainfall opportunities and only a few waterings should be required for one's garden. Total rainfall for eastern areas this week will be around 1-2inches depending on tracks of convective rains. Central areas may be more around an inch or less and western areas should be exactly around 1inch. Temperatures will not reach over 85degrees for most areas this week. Dewpoints will not be dry at all as they total around 65 for most of this week. Overall this does not appear to be a typical Summer hot and dry week. Happy Gardening!!!

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Severe Weather Outlook" (Updated 7/20)
This week we are under the influence of a strong southerly flow with a slight easterly component. This flow is never favorable for severe weather across the Northeast as the airmass is generally marine influenced. But gradually the flow will switch slightly more to the southwest towards the weeks end. Rising PWATs in eastern Pennsylvania and higher dewpoints in the 60s will allow for plentiful moisture this week, but with the marine influence little if any instability will be able to develop at the surface during the first half of the week. As the first wave of precipitation moves up the coast Tuesday the only chance of thunderstorms would be from elevated convection, and this will not be widespread generally confined to southern areas. Towards the end of the week the flow aloft will be from the southwest allowing slightly warmer temperatures at the surface during the day. But with weak winds aloft at least initially, I expect little if any severe weather. Freezing levels will be relatively high for a majority of the week also. But as we head into the first half of the week a slightly strong vortex of energy will rotate up the coast with slightly high winds aloft and increasing shear values. With CAPE near 1000 j/kg, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon. Boundary layer conditions will be beneficial to updrafts in the formation of cumulus-nimbus clouds. Overall though the week will be generally quiet in the severe weather department as generally stratiform rain and isolated elevated convection will be the general rule of thumb. But any day especially the second half of the week could feature a wet microburst severe weather report. Towards the weekend a few strong disturbances may rotate in along with the trough situated this week in the Great Lakes. Severe weather is possible, but confidence is very low at the moment.

"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Tropical Update" (Updated 7/20)
Currently there is an invest in the Atlantic basin, 97L. But as has been the common theme this Hurrican Season, high shear values are located all across the path of this system especially through the next 48-72hours. Also SSTs across the basin still remain near normal, but this is below normal in comparison with the last few tropical seasons. Any development especially in the next 72hours should be minimal with lack of low level circulation and generally the system should be torn apart by shear. If perhaps any showers and thunderstorms along with low pressure center survive through the central Caribbean then perhaps this system bears further monitoring, but for now the islands should only expect a few periods of heavy rain and gusty winds near 40mph. Elsewhere in the Atlantic there really is not any feature of immediant concern and any African wave looks relatively weak at this time. There is a low pressure though forming off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina that will head along the east coast bringing heavy rain to eastern New England especially Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Maine with QPF near 1-3inches. But this low pressure will lack any tropical features and should be purely a coastal storm. There may be some slight beach erosion in the coming days on the Outerbanks with the New Moon and easterly onshore flow. Astronomical high tide should be around 1-2ft above normal during the first half of this week. As I mentioned below in my August outlook, I do expect the tropical season to start getting slightly more active in August and that lower trough axis in the southeast may be an initiating ground towards the end of July and early August. For now though all global models do not expect any tropical formation for this coming week.

"Latest Tropical Systems including Sea Surface Temperatures"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Monthly Outlook" (August)
After a below normal June and July, August may try to tap into some warmer air. In June temperatures averaged around -.5degrees across Pennsylvania despite few if any 90degree high temperature days. The warmest conditions oddly enough occured this year in April. But we are entering a slight pattern change. The trough situated over the east coast will begin to pivot westward over an extended period of time. This will keep the core of the cooler air and trough axis over the Great Lakes. But this does not mean warm air is going to be surging up the coast. Further downstream the trough over Europe will still be over eastern areas and until this trough is replaced with a ridge, the east coast of the US will continue to be lacking in above normal temperatures. With the trough axis slightly to the west of the region, this will place the Northeast is an active pattern for disturbances and rainfall. They will develop along the lower end of the trough and move northeast up the trough. Also something interesting is how this deep stubborn trough will stall in the Southeast off the coast and Gulf of Mexico. As mentioned earlier, I am still monitoring the possibility of tropical development on the axis of the lower end of the trough. For now that is just an outside chance, but still I expect the Atlantic tropical season to start getting in gear during the month of August with the Gulf of Mexico and southeast coastline at the highest threat for any landfalling system.

Temperature- Temperatures should average around normal from (-.5)-(+.5) with areas across the western half of the state slightly cooler than eastern areas. This Summer will surely be one to remember with the crystal clear blue skies and dry air, but during August I do expect humid conditions to be a common theme during a majority of the month. Temperatures should be warmer in the first half of the month as cool air reloads across the Arctic circle as the NAO surges near neutral. But during the end of the month I expect a return to near negative NAO values with below normal temperatures along with the trough axis moving back east as the EPO values surge back to negative too.

Precipitation- This month looks to be fairly wet with normal to above normal precipitation thanks to the trough axis to our west, but a flow bringing in Gulf Disturbances on up the coast. Also any tropical influences will likely make landfall and head up the east coast states causing heavier rain. The highest chance of above normal rainfall will be over southern areas thanks to high instability forming stronger thunderstorms with heavy rain. I still have the first week in August open as a period with possible severe weather being likely as disturbances rotate in from the Lakes with possible severe thunderstorm squall lines, but for now that remains about 1-2 weeks away.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Here north of Harrisburg 2009 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 5
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 5
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 26

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 2
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 4.20inches
Yearly Precipitation- 22.84inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 0
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree Days- 5
Highest Temperature- 92degrees

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92. TheDawnAwakening
4:02 PM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
Blizzard - latest SPC mesoanalysis shows increasing parameters for severe weather over SNE right now. We have sunshine, temps in the mid 70s, dp around 70F winds out of the WSW or SW so it's minimizing chances of fog right now so we could get big storms. The real thing lacking is a strengthening trigger for organized severe storms. Our front moving east is dissipating now and a trough has developed east of the Apps. I think the SPC next update will have to put a slight risk further south into SNE as well. Thoughts? Storms are now developing to the west near Albany, NY and are moving east.
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
91. Zachary Labe
3:49 PM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- It sort of moved due east from Middletown to Hershey to Campbelltown.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
90. TheRasberryPatch
2:25 PM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
so the storm moved out of the NW and moved SE?
Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
89. Zachary Labe
1:23 PM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- That is ashame. The storm passed to my south developing and then became severe over southwestern Lebanon County.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
88. TheRasberryPatch
12:02 PM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
the area is just NNE of Newark, DE. anyway, i ended up with a bit of damage from the storm on Friday.
my cucumbers are looking bad. the leaves have holes in them the size of a dime. and the corn got knocked down. very disappointing. i will try and stand them up today after everything dries a bit.
Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
87. TheDawnAwakening
11:27 AM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
Ok, thanks Blizzard.
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
86. weathergeek5
2:52 AM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
that was the storm that hit me I think.
Member Since: Diciembre 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
85. Zachary Labe
2:44 AM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
TheRasberryPatch- Not familiar with the area you are mentioning. Anyways here is a link to an interactive severe weather reports map for today for the Middle Atlantic... Link

*Radical change coming to weekly weather blog, of which will feature hopefully advantages towards everyone's needs for forecasts. Blog will be posted sometime tomorrow.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
84. TheRasberryPatch
2:29 AM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
Hello, Blizz...when i was driving home this evening from the beach I got just north of Elkton/Newark and hit a big storm around 8pm. tree branches were down along the road and power was out. Any damage reports from the area? the area would be somewhere around NorthStar or Mermaid
Member Since: Enero 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
83. Zachary Labe
1:02 AM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- Best jet dynamics and instability head out to sea, but with some afternoon 1500 j/kg CAPE and a shortwave rotating in from the Lakes I think a few isolated severe reports are possible with collapsing cells in the form of wet microbursts.

weathergeek5- New blog out tomorrow covering this coming week. I thought you might enjoy the expanded coverage, lol. Either this blog or next week's blog will likely be the change. By the way sounds like an awesome storm.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
82. weathergeek5
12:26 AM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
well the storm took its time rolling in. I noticed that there was this really low dark cloud moving faster then the rest of the storm. Then i noticed it was the mini shelf cloud. As this low cloud moved overhead I noticed the trees in the distance starting to sway with the wind. that's when it started to get windy. The rain is falling in sheets now. This storm had much more lighting with it then the one I had on Friday. Brb I am going to observe. Storm is leaving now I guess we care catching up on our thunderstorms this week. It will feel like summer. It wont be in the 90's but it will be humid. How does this week look to you Blizz? OH it would be a great idea to expand the blog to cover Delaware too! :)
Member Since: Diciembre 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
81. TheDawnAwakening
12:26 AM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
I thought it was the widespread nature of the storms the reason for the large slight risk zone. Anyways, what do you think we will see for tomorrow? Anything severe weather wise for Eastern SNE? I know the models showed something last night for tomorrow.
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
80. Zachary Labe
12:11 AM GMT en Julio 27, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- Well a slight risk doesn't typically mean too widespread of severe of an outbreak. The severe weather was spotty, but the cells that formed produced a lot of severe weather in isolated locations. They had a lot of supercellular characteristics. I think the SPC made a great forecast especially pounding out the area with the highest threat of a tornado.

weathergeek5- Did you get anything?
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
79. weathergeek5
11:21 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
skies are dark here with lightning and thunder. there is a severe thunderstorm warning for my county. I think I will just see the fringes of it.
Member Since: Diciembre 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
78. TheDawnAwakening
9:29 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
That is disappointing Blizzard. SPC has a large slight risk for much of the NECONUS with the exception being Cape Cod and the Islands and Northern New England.
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
77. Zachary Labe
9:03 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Well interesting conditions currently. There is meagar CAPE in most areas around 1500 j/kg or less with shear 0-3km around 35knots. But some stronger instability with high helicity values is found in a corridor from northern New Jersey through Connecticut. A lack in large scale lift will prevent widespread severe weather. The main threat is from these discrete cells that form along mesoscale features such as sea breezes and pre frontal troughs along with outflow boundaries laid down from this morning's convection. These isolated cells will take on supercellular characteristics as scene by the northern New Jersey cell which has TVS along with a tornado warning at the present time. Through tonight convection will be isolated, but those isolated cells will likely be severe. Most areas will not see much activity.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
76. TheDawnAwakening
9:02 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Tornado warning west of NYC.
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
75. weathergeek5
8:51 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Ok Blizz we need a nowcast of the latest conditions and thoughts on the storms that are on radar.
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74. TheDawnAwakening
8:36 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Yeah, Blizzard, I guess tomorrow is the day.
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
73. Zachary Labe
8:23 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- The biggest problem for you will be the south winds. Take a look at the trajectory of the storms. This means you would have to look more towards the Sound to get any thunderstorms. Best chance of something forming would be off a sea breeze.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
72. TheDawnAwakening
8:16 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Blizzard I agree tomorrow could be a much better day for severe storms for my area. Of course latest SPC update has a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of SNE except Cape Cod, MA. What do you know? We have gotten severe storms with a lot of fog and SBCINH.
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
71. Zachary Labe
7:48 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-011-017-025-029-041-043-045-055-069-071-075-077-079-089-
091-095-099-101-103-107-115-127-131-133-270300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0626.090726T1950Z-090727T0300Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BERKS BUCKS
CARBON CHESTER CUMBERLAND
DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN
LACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANON
LEHIGH LUZERNE MONROE
MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PERRY
PHILADELPHIA PIKE SCHUYLKILL
SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING
YORK
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
70. Zachary Labe
7:40 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
TheDawnAwakening- Not too great, lots of -300CIN around the Cape Cod area but some stronger CAPE to your west so perhaps you could get a weakening storm. I highly doubt anything strong to severe though. Tomorrow could be a slightly better day for you.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
69. TheDawnAwakening
7:38 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Sunny here with some fog. It did get sunny after 1pm today, hopefully enough sunshine for strong to severe storms. Blizzard how is it looking for us now?
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
68. Zachary Labe
7:30 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
shoreacres- Thanks! I thought it was good idea and I know of some people who could use the forecast out on the bay. Thanks for stopping by!

weathergeek5- Keep us updated of anything interesting! I might have a watch for me later too.

Mason803- 81/68 with sunshine here so this afternoon will be interesting to watch. The inversion CAP has broken so that is better for thunderstorm initiation.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
67. Mason803
7:25 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
watching strong storms in washington county md closely. they should be crossing mason dixon line shortly. they have a couple of 55 dbz returns in them.
Member Since: Noviembre 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
65. weathergeek5
6:18 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Severe thunderstorm watch for me until 9:00PM
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64. shoreacres
2:33 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Morning, Blizzard,

I'd be interested in seeing the Chesapeake section continued - not because I need it, but because it would be a good addition for boaters. It's amazing the number of folks I know who've headed that way for hurricane season. Most are quite capable of reading charts and doing some projecting on their own, but the love reading weather stuff ;-) If you do, be sure and use "boating" as well as "marine" with forecast somehow, so folks using that term on google to find sites will get here.

Other than that, same old same old. Hot, sunny, with maybe some rain if we're lucky. No cool and damp here!


Member Since: Octubre 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
63. Zachary Labe
2:10 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
sullivanweather- Yes that is unique, could be the similar gravity wave also. It is currently just west of State College.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
62. sullivanweather
2:07 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Interesting satellite loop this morning over Pennsylvania.

There appears the be an undular bore moving through the state very rapidly.

Anyone else see this and come to the same conclusion?
Member Since: Marzo 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
61. Zachary Labe
1:55 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
weathergeek5- Probably not, in fact things were weaker yesterday than expected likely causing today to be a bit more widespread perhaps.

TheDawnAwakening- Clusters of thunderstorms after 1pm some of which may be severe may affect eastern portions of the Northeast. For your area that fog may stablize the boundary layer for a good portion of the day. It will be hard to get 1000 j/kg for Cape Cod if the fog doesn't burn off within the next hour or two.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
60. TheDawnAwakening
12:47 PM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Blizzard - what do you think will happen today for the Northeast? Do you think I could get some storms today?
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
59. weathergeek5
12:33 AM GMT en Julio 26, 2009
Will this sap out the energy for tomorrow?
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58. Zachary Labe
7:19 PM GMT en Julio 25, 2009
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR
BRADFORD CAMBRIA CAMERON
CENTRE CLEARFIELD CLINTON
COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN
ELK FRANKLIN FULTON
HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER
LEBANON LYCOMING MCKEAN
MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY POTTER SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN
TIOGA UNION YORK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SWRN NY/PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL
PA/MD PANHANDLE/ERN WV PANHANDLE/NWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251905Z - 252000Z

MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING...WITH WW POSSIBLE.

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM WRN NY SWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND INTO
WRN MD/ERN WV...S OF A REMNANT MCV ALONG THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE
AXIS/TROUGH. BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION HAS RESULTED
IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THE SLOW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEING OBSERVED ATTM.

WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL...MODERATE/GENERALLY SWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONGER/ORGANIZED CELLS TO EVOLVE WITH
TIME. WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS LIKELY TO BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEFLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL...WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
57. Zachary Labe
6:33 PM GMT en Julio 25, 2009
Mason803- They probably should to cover any chance of a thunderstorm being severe as it moves into our area tonight.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
56. Mason803
4:04 PM GMT en Julio 25, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
Nasty two day severe weather across Pennsylvania starting today through tomorrow. The Lower Susquehanna Valley may be a prime target considering the high instability aloft and boundary layer CAPE values.



do you think spc will expand their "slight risk" area east?
Member Since: Noviembre 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
55. Zachary Labe
3:41 PM GMT en Julio 25, 2009
Nasty two day severe weather across Pennsylvania starting today through tomorrow. The Lower Susquehanna Valley may be a prime target considering the high instability aloft and boundary layer CAPE values.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
54. TheDawnAwakening
12:25 PM GMT en Julio 25, 2009
I got a microburst in December 2005.
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
53. Zachary Labe
12:19 AM GMT en Julio 25, 2009
weathergeek5- Cool! Well in a thunderstorm you initially get the outflow boundary which is when you feel the sudden rush of cool air. As the storm progresses winds wrap around the spine of the storm, especially during severe thunderstorms, and they form the downdraft capable of the strongest winds especially when the core of the thunderstorm is weakening. These can form the microbursts which can cause wind damage.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
52. weathergeek5
10:35 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
It is looking nasty out. I will log out and go outside and wait for these storms. Be back after the storms

* Severe thunderstorm warning is in effect until 730 PM EDT

* at 626 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing nickel size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near
Kennett Square... or 8 miles southwest of West Chester... and moving
east at 25 mph.


***Back after the storm. The storm was a wind up one. It got really really dark then the rain started. The winds were out of the southwest at the onset. they gusted to wround 40 mph. there was of course thunder and lighting going on at this time. Now fast forward 10 minutes the heaviest of the rain moves in. The winds switch to out of the northwest gusting to around 50-60 mph with small branches down. This continued for about 5 minutes of blinding rain. At the height I went outside to "observe the conditions first hand. I am still soaked. I am not sure if it happens regularly but does the winds switch directions in a storm if so why?***
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51. Zachary Labe
9:33 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
hurigo- I am pleased to see you stop by and glad you enjoyed the Bay Forecast. The weather here in the Lower Susquehanna Valley is always threatening thunderstorm wise as most of the stronger supercells form here in PA thanks to our unique geography.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
50. hurigo
9:19 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
Hello Blizz and a very happy Friday to you, northern friend.

I must admit I have not read your entire latest blog entry, but reading what I have reminds me it is time once again to thank you for the fine work and information that you compile. I notice you have added a Chesapeake Bay Marine forecast and I do so appreciate that. It is so true, your statement that marine forecasts change by the hour, so you've taken on a lot! I just wish that our boats were in working order such that the marine forecast would be more relevant for us.

I saw on the news--I think it was breaking news on WC--that there was some significant rain and flooding in your state. I hope you and yours fared well with that event.
Member Since: Octubre 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6744
49. Mason803
9:13 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
Mason803- Congrats! It looked like a pretty nasty line.


thanks. rainfall update 0.94" with this storm
Member Since: Noviembre 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
48. Zachary Labe
9:00 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
Mason803- Congrats! It looked like a pretty nasty line.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
47. Mason803
8:47 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
dime size hail with a gust to 35 and .60+" of rain so far. best storm of the season by far!!
Member Since: Noviembre 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
46. Zachary Labe
8:20 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
Worst of storm hit south of my location. But I still picked up .2inches of rain for a storm total of 2.36inches. Lots of CTC lightning with low rolling thunder.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
45. Mason803
8:11 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
storms on my doorstep. i'll update once they hit
Member Since: Noviembre 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
44. lawntonlookers
7:37 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
Bliz. They finally put some public information statements in the local forecast on the amount of rain and damage. Keep you eyes to the sky as this one looks like it heading your way. Out for the day
Member Since: Marzo 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
43. Zachary Labe
6:39 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
lawntonlookers- Yea it was quite a storm. The max of 1.73inches of rain in exactly an hour was the most I have recorded since having my Vantage Pro2. That storm in Perry County is sort of bowing out and I would not be surprised if it turns severe; it appears to be headed our way also.
Member Since: Diciembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
42. lawntonlookers
6:36 PM GMT en Julio 24, 2009
Yes Bliz. I was just looking at them. That was quite some storm last night in some areas. Tye Yellow Breaches was at 10+ feet this morning which is a quick rise.
Back to the Space Shuttle coverage.
Member Since: Marzo 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

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