marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 845 PM EST Thu 12 Dec 2013
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
A stg cd fnt wl mov se ovr the New England offshr into the nrn mid Atlc wtrs ovngt and Fri. Plan on havg gales dvlp ovr the srn New England wtrs and Hudson to Hague ln later ovngt with MDT confdc FM GFS/ECMWF. Thereaft confdc for gales increases ovr the New England offshr wtrs and nrn mid Atlc wtrs. Otw high pres builds in acrs the nrn offshr wtrs Sat and then passes E of the offshr areas Sat ngt. Attn then turns to low pres that dvlps and movs into the mid Atlc states late Sat. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF mdls in gud agrmt with low pres strengthening and movg towards Cape Cod by 7 am Sun morning then off to the NE...and passing E of the New England offshr sun aftn.
Wl make few changes to prev fcst package which looks good.
Seas...multigrid wwiii looks gud and compares well with ECMWF WV guid and wl not make any changes for now.
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Summary...another strong cold front will cross nt1 and nrn nt2 wtrs ltr tngt into Fri. Gales will lkly dvlp by Fri ovr nt1 and nrn nt2 wtrs as a result. High pres will move off the Carolina coast Fri allowing conditions to improve from SW to NE ovr nt2 wtrs during the day Fri into Fri ngt. A high pres ridge extending se from se Canada will cross nt1 and nrn nt2 wtrs Fri ngt allowing conditions to improve ovr these wtrs as well. The next low pres system will organize ovr the Gulf states early Sat... with a warm front extending E and NE from the low ovr central and nrn nt2 off wtrs by later Sat. The low will intensify and track NE ovr the nrn nt2 and srn nt1 off wtrs Sat ngt into sun. Fairly widespread gales are lkly surrounding this low pres system Sat into sun ngt and early Mon. Conditions are expected to improve ltr Mon as the low moves well NE of the wtrs and the next high pres area builds offshore. The high will rather quickly cross the wtrs Mon night with yet another cold front approaching the off wtrs Tue.
Models...the 12z mdls are in gud agreement ovr the off wtrs thru the wknd into Mon. By Tue...the 12z GFS appears a little too fast in bringing a cold front and se Canadian low pres area E toward the off wtrs. We will therefore transition the fcst toward the 12z ECMWF for Tue as it fits better with the overall 12z mdl consensus.
.Seas...The 12z mww3 WV watch mdl guid still appears to be running up to 3 ft on the low side ovr nt1 and nrn nt2 off wtrs. We will make some adjustments to the fcst initially. Otw...as we are staying close to the 12z GFS into Mon we will also stay fairly close to the 12z mww3 into Mon...except for the higher conditions initially. By Tue...we will trend the fcst toward the 12z ECMWF wam WV mdl as the trend the off fcst toward the 12z ECMWF mdl guid.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...The latest essg appears reasonable into Mon ovr the region as we will not be deviating too much from the 12z GFS into Mon.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...gale Friday. Gale Saturday night into Monday .Georges Bank...Gale Friday. Gale Saturday night into Monday. .South of New England...Gale Friday. Gale Saturday night.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...gale Saturday night. .Baltimore Canyon to Hague line...Gale Friday. Gale Saturday night into Monday. .Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...Gale Sat night into sun. .Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...Gale Sat night into sun. .Cape Fear to 31n...None. $$
.Forecaster Rowland. Ocean prediction center.
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NOT FOR NAVIGATION. DO NOT RELY ON THIS DATA FOR DECISIONS THAT CAN RESULT IN HARM TO ANYONE OR ANYTHING.