Debate de meteorólogos científicos
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
655 PM EST Thursday Dec 12 2013
high pressure will build east into the region for the rest of the
week. Low pressure will move across the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys Saturday and emerge off the middle Atlantic coast Saturday
night. The low then tracks northeast into the Canadian Maritimes
Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure builds for Monday. Then a
weak and quick moving frontal system affects the region Tuesday.
High pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
another update as temperatures in some spots have already come in at
their forecast lows. Snow cover likely playing a factor.
Minor update to increase clouds across southeast Li. Cant rule out a
flurry there. Otherwise forecast on track with minor tweaks to hourly
Another quiet and cold night in store for the region as an Arctic
high pressure builds east. The high will remain slightly
suppressed to the south as a weak cold front dips down from a low
pushing through far southeastern Canada...keeping a westerly flow
across the area. Fairly dry air mass remains in place...so
expecting any precipitation associated with the front to remain to our
north...though the passing upper level trough could increase cloud
coverage over inland areas. This combined with increased winds
will keep any radiational cooling to a minimum. However...with
850mb temperatures still around -10 degrees...we should still see a very
cold night...with overnight lows a good 10-15 degrees below
normal...and most of the region seeing wind chill values in the
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Friday night/...
surface high briefly retreats to the south as a weak cold front
pushes through the northeast Friday afternoon. The high builds
back up in the wake Friday night...bringing about the last drier
weather before the approaching low pressure system for the
weekend. Overall...expecting the passage of the front to be dry
with the persisting Arctic air mass keeping fairly dry air over the
region. The front along with a passing weak wave aloft could
trigger isolated flurries over interior portions of New York and CT late
in the day and early Friday evening. A period of dry weather then
sets in before light precipitation associated with the approaching low
tracking through the southeast begins to move in. Currently just
have slight chance with light snow by 12z Sat...depending on the
timing of the low could see a difference of precipitation start time.
However...confidence is there that any initial precipitation will be in the
form of light snow.
Cold weather remains the story through Friday as 850mb temperatures
remain around -10 degrees. Highs Friday will be a couple degrees
warmer...though still around 10 degrees below normal. Increased
cloud cover ahead of the approaching systems Friday night will keep
lows in the 20s along the coast...and in the upper teens inland.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
southern stream shortwave moving out of the Southern Plains and into
the southeast will develop a surface low moving through the Gulf
Coast states. High pressure will remain to the north over
southeastern Canada and into the northeast. Cold air damming will
keep cold air east of the Appalachians into North Carolina.
Developing warm advection...and coastal front...along with
isentropic lift will result in precipitation developing by
Saturday morning. Cold air will be in place at the start for all
snow. The trend has been for a warmer solution with the evolution
of the low as the storm redevelops off the middle Atlantic coast late
Saturday into Saturday evening. All models are tracking the low
just inside the benchmark...40/70. Flow will be progressive and no
upper closed low associated with the system. Plenty of Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be incorporated into the system. Most of
the precipitation will occur at the start...Saturday into the
evening. As warmer air moves into a transition to rain along the
coast is likely and farther inland will be a transition of
snow...sleet...and freezing rain...taking longer for the
transition into the lower Hudson Valley until late Saturday night.
Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts vary with the models and leaned toward the wpc and rfc
guidance. Snowfall totals will be least across Suffolk County New
York with the highest across the lower Hudson Valley...ranging
from around 2 inches to 6 inches. Precipitation type and timing
transition will have an impact on snow and ice totals. Still do
not have high enough confidence of a 6 inch snowfall inland and
will not issue any watches at this time...and looks like an
advisory event at this time.
The low will move away on Sunday...with precipitation ending. Dry
weather returns briefly Sunday into Monday night. Then a quick
moving frontal system moves through for Tuesday. High pressure
builds in for Tuesday night into Thursday. Followed closely to the
current forecast and wpc guidance for Monday night through
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure across the southeast U.S. Will remain nearly stationary
as low pressure moves north of New England.
VFR weather will prevail through 00z Saturday.
The surface wind forecast is low confidence until at least 09z with
the approach of sunrise. Except for the immediate coast...surface
winds have decoupled from the upper flow and are less than 5 knots at
kswf...khpn...kgon...kisp and kbdr.
Updated winds for slower speeds at these locations until after 08z.
Otherwise...west-southwest winds around 250 degrees at 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25
knots through at least 18z Friday. Winds become light and variable
with the approach of sunset Friday.
New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts
can be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)
Kjfk fcster comments: amendments not anticipated.
Klga fcster comments: amendments not anticipated.
Kewr fcster comments: amendments not anticipated.
Kteb fcster comments: amendments not anticipated.
Khpn fcster comments: amendments possible for winds.
Kisp fcster comments: amendments possible for winds.
Outlook for 00z Friday night through Tuesday...
Friday night...MVFR ceilings possible late.
Sat...IFR/LIFR in developing snow and fog area wide.
Sat night...NYC/NJ metropolitan including Long Island and coastal CT...IFR/LIFR
in snow changing to rain. West and north of NYC...snow mixing with sleet
and freezing rain. East winds g20-30kt mainly from NYC east.
Sunday...lingering snow or rain showers into the afternoon...
becoming VFR from west to east during the afternoon.
Tuesday...chance of sub-VFR in snow showers
Small Craft Advisory in effect for all waters tonight through Friday with a
tightening pressure gradient with the high to our south and an
approaching cold front from the north. Gusts up to 30 kts will be
possible...especially Friday morning...with seas on the ocean reaching 4-6 feet
Friday. Conditions will start to diminish late Friday from west to
east as the high builds in behind the departing front.
Low pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys will move off the
middle Atlantic coast Saturday night...passing south and east of the
forecast waters through Sunday as the low heads into the Canadian
maritime. Small craft conditions are likely across the forecast
waters Saturday night into Sunday night in association with the
low. Behind the low late Sunday into Sunday night there is a
potential for a brief period of gale force gusts on the ocean
waters. Seas will be slow to subside with small craft seas on the
ocean waters lingering into Tuesday night.
significant precipitation is likely Saturday into Sunday in
association with a coastal low. Liquid equivalent quantitative precipitation forecast ranges from
3/4 to 1 inch...falling mainly as snow across northern New Jersey
into the lower Hudson Valley and across southern Connecticut.
Dry weather returns Sunday night into the beginning of next week.
the New York City National oceanic and atmospheric administration all hazards weather radio station kwo35 has
been returned to service. However...if issues arise again due to
interference with the U.S. Coast Guard emergency broadcast
channel...the transmitter may need to be taken out of service. If this
does occur...a notice will be made to the public notifying them of
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for anz338-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 6 PM EST Friday for anz330-
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 am EST
Saturday for anz350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Friday for anz340-345.