Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Marquette Michigan
821 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 424 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
Temperatures will be colder than normal tonight across much of the
Upper Peninsula...with frost possible over the east half.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather across much of
Upper Michigan this afternoon through the day Saturday. Middle to high
level clouds will move into the area tonight due to an upper level
500mb short wave shifting south toward the region this afternoon
through tonight. As of 16z the short wave could be seen over central
Quebec and visible satellite imagery shows a noted increase in cloud
cover near this feature.
Moisture is prognosticated to lift slowly northward with the southerly flow
on the west side of the western fringes of the high pressure system.
This will allow for a noted increase in cloud cover for the western
half of Upper Michigan...especially near the Wisconsin border tonight.
Have decided to keep the area dry tonight through Saturday as the
better moisture/forcing is prognosticated to remain south of the area as
shown by overlaying 1000-500mb rh/Omega. Have also bumped
temperatures up a couple degrees tonight over the west half due to
the increased cloud cover...which should limit frost development.
Over the east...temperatures may cool a bit more...into the low
30s...as winds will be light overnight and cloud cover should not be
as extensive allowing for better radiational cooling and frost
development. During the day Saturday most of the Upper Peninsula
will see partly cloudy skies...however...with Ironwood being near
the western fringes of the high pressure system...near the increased
moisture...expect clouds to linger through much of the day Saturday.
Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 424 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
Sun and Monday...quiet weather will be rule through the rest of the
Holiday weekend as middle-level and surface ridging continue to dominate the
upper Great Lakes. After a chilly start (sat night temperatures could drop
into the lower 30s over interior central and eastern locations of the
cwa)...abundant sunshine on sun under a dry column will allow temperatures
to rise quickly. Interior locations should rise well into the 60s.
Temperatures should be close to near may normals on Memorial Day. With weak
pressure gradients throughout the Holiday weekend...lake breezes will be
the rule in the afternoon...so afternoon temperatures will be coolest along the Great
Lakes. There could be an increase in some middle-high clouds on Monday
over mainly west and south central portions as both the NAM and GFS
and to a lesser extent the European model (ecmwf) show a shortwave rippling through
the middle-upper level ridge. The 12z NAM even shows some precipitation reaching
into the scntrl portion of the County Warning Area on Monday but this solution looks to be
an outlier as rest of the models show best deep level moisture and warm air advection
forcing staying well south closer to surface-800 mb warm front.
Tuesday into Friday...looks like the upper lakes may get into an active
pattern for thunderstorms as a ridge builds over the southeast Continental U.S....and a series
of shortwaves are forced over the ridge and across the upper Great
Lakes. Increasing southerly flow of warmer air and Gulf moisture
toward the upper Great Lakes will lead to temperatures rising above normal by
middle to late week as well as more humid conditions. Models still show
differences on timing of these shortwaves and resulting convection
which they are expected to trigger in more humid and unstable
environment. For now will generally maintain higher chance probability of precipitation going
to suggest periodic rain showers/thunderstorms and rain chances from Tuesday through Friday. Shouldn't
see any long duration precipitation events...but there's a good chance most
locations will see some precipitation at some point Tuesday through Friday...with
the best chance falling on Tue-Wed. Models suggest possibly a drier
period Wednesday night into Thursday as middle level ridge amplifies over the area so
have lower chance probability of precipitation reflected during this time period. The
combination of increased moisture and deep layer shear could also
possibly lead to the first severe storms of the season by middle to late
week.
&&
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 820 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
With dry low levels remaining in place...expect VFR conditions
through the taf period as only middle and high clouds spread into the
region. Winds will also be generall light...at or below 10 knots.
&&
Marine...(for the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
issued at 424 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
Winds will remain less than 20 knots through Monday as high pressure
stretches from James Bay southward into the Ohio River valley. In
the absence of any major storm systems moving into the area...expect
winds to remain light...20 knots or less...Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
MQT watches/warnings/advisories...
Upper Michigan...
none.
Lake Superior...
none.
Lake Michigan...
none.
&&
$$
Short term...kec
long term...Voss
aviation...jlb
marine...kec
