Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
710 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013
Discussion...
Updated for 00z aviation discussion
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 303 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/
Skies are partly to mostly sunny across the forecast area this
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to middle 80s.
There is not much activity on the radar this afternoon. Some
showers and thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon with
the best chance of development occurring in eastern sections of
the forecast area.
By Sunday...an upper level ridge will build into the middle
Mississippi Valley. This ridge will keep dry weather most of the
region for Sunday and into early Monday. Temperatures will be a
little warmer as well with highs mainly in the upper 80s.
By Sunday night...a cold front will moving across the plains
states. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front
and some of this activity may reach far northwest sections of the
forecast area late Sunday night or early Monday morning. By Monday
the cold front will continue to move slowly east with a better
chance of thunderstorms expected mainly over western sections of
the forecast area.
The cold front gets closer to the region Tuesday and Wednesday
then moves into the forecast area Thursday and Friday. The chance
of thunderstorms will continue during much of the upcoming week.
Can't rule out some severe thunderstorms during the week with the
better chance of some occurring on Tuesday night but the risk
remains rather small at this time. Temperatures during the
upcoming week look to be near normal.
Ars
&&
Aviation...
00z taf cycle
Rain showers are starting to develop along a boundary across the northern
tier of the midsouth. At this time it appears that this activity will
remain north of the taf sites. Otherwise expect VFR conds through much
of the night. Does not appear that the low levels will be quite as
moist tonight so pulled the lower ceilings from kmem and went with a
brief tempo of MVFR/IFR ceilings at kmkl...kjbr and ktup from
19/10z-19/14z along with some light fog. Any lower conds will improve
quickly to VFR Sunday morning as upper level ridging strengthens
over the area. Expect a light south breeze overnight increasing
and becoming gusty later Sunday morning.
Sjm
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 71 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 20
mkl 68 88 69 88 / 30 10 10 10
jbr 69 88 70 86 / 10 10 20 30
tup 69 89 68 89 / 30 10 10 10
&&
Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&
$$
