AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
932 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY...AND A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE THEN BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION...THE WINDS THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE AREA THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SETTLE DOWN.
DIURNAL CU HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...BUT THERE IS CIRRUS
SPILLOVER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MAINLY
SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE BULK OF THESE
CLOUDS IS SW OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...BUT MAY STILL NEED TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN CLEAR IN THE FAR SW ZONES.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND 30S WEST. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GONE CALM IN MUCH OF
WV AND STAND A CHANCE OF DOING SO PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE HIGHLANDS. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT IN
THOSE AREAS.
ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WINDY AS TODAY AND THE COOL AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AROUND 70 IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. MAY START TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...INSTIGATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND A RETURN IN MOISTURE...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS MAY
WIND UP STAYING DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...PERHAPS
EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. UNDER THE RIDGE...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PUT A LID ON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE QUICKLY DIED DOWN AFTER SUNSET...AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER/MID TIDAL POTOMAC HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS
RIGHT NOW ARE EVEN MARGINAL ON THE REST OF THE WATERS...BUT WILL
KEEP SCA IN EFFECT AT THIS POINT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTER DAYBREAK...ENOUGH TO REACH SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY
AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY FOR GUSTS AOA 15 KT DURING THE MID
WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...AND TEMPS APPROACHING
70...RH VALUES COULD APPROACH OR FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND
FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN HIGH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BASED ON PRELIMINARY STATISTICS...THE MORNING LOW OF 46 AT DCA IS
THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURE SO LATE IN THE SPRING SINCE 1996 /MAY
30TH/. IF THE LOW AT DCA DROPS BELOW 50 TONIGHT...IT WILL BE THE
FIRST TIME WITH THREE CONSECUTIVE LOWS BELOW 50 THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON SINCE 1967.
FOR BWI...THE MORNING LOW OF 44 IS THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURE SO
LATE IN THE SPRING SINCE 2001 /MAY 31ST/.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MDZ501.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BPP
NEAR TERM...JE/BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...JE/BPP
MARINE...JE/BPP
FIRE WEATHER...JE
CLIMATE...JE
