Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
332 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Synopsis...
dry and cool Canadian air will prevail across the region through
the Memorial Day weekend. A warming trend will begin on
Monday...continuing through the upcoming week...with minimal
rainfall chances. Daytime temperatures may rise above normal
Wednesday through Friday.
&&
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 314 am Sunday...another cool early morning as the remnants of
a Canadian air mass rests across the region. Radiational cooling
has been strong much of the night...but advancing moisture aloft
from a former mesoscale convective system over Iowa and Indiana last night is diving southeast
into the Carolinas bringing middle and high clouds. This trend
will likely cause temperature readings to level off or increase
after 9z this morning...with minimum temperatures realized prior
to daybreak over many locations. Partly cloudy conditions appear
likely much of the day given the extent and trajectory of clouds
and favored more-so over NC. It appears possible we will have to
initialize portions of our northern zones with mostly cloudy skies
early this morning.
Heights aloft today support slightly warmer maximum temperatures
than yesterday...but the considerable amount of upstream clouds
may suppress temperature climbs...resulting in highs near or just
slightly warmer than yesterday. Weak high pressure offshore
tonight should allow a light onshore wind and look for minimums
to be milder into daybreak Monday...most notably at the coast.
&&
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
as of 330 am Sunday...return to more seasonable weather will take
place early next week as high pressure shifts off the coast and a
warmer and moister southerly flow sets up Monday into Tuesday.
Deeper northwest flow aloft will lighten as ridge shift east and builds
up the East Coast through middle week. This will shut off any
moisture or clouds streaming in from the northwest by end of
period. Models still showing a minor perturbation in the middle
levels on Monday which may help to produce showers inland and
residual clouds moving over area through late Monday into early
Tuesday. Otherwise expect plenty of sunshine and mainly localized cumulus
build up each afternoon due to convergence along sea breeze
boundary as it pushes inland. Kept low end chance of localized showers
as slightly more unstable conditions will exist as temperatures warm into
the 80s and dewpoint temperatures return closer to 60 especially Tuesday
afternoon. Moisture return and clouds will also keep temperatures up overnight
with low temperatures expected to remain in the 60s for the most part.
&&
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 330 am Sunday...return to more Summer-like weather as strong
ridge builds over the southeast and Bermuda high pressure
continues to produce a moister return flow. The increased
subsidence aloft will help to suppress any shower activity through
much of the period with only some afternoon cumulus building up along
convergent sea breeze boundary each afternoon.
Middle to upper ridge building over the southeast will produce height
rises up near 590 dem on Wednesday lasting through Friday. Low level
thicknesses also rise and 850 temperatures reach around 15c. Expect temperatures
well into the 80s with a slight drop each afternoon closer to the
coast as sea breeze pushes inland.
&&
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 06z...VFR expected through this taf period...with scattered
middle-level clouds along with periods of scattered to broken cirrus.
Because of the dry airmass do not expect fog to be an issue this
morning at kflo/klbt...except at kcre where a period of onshore
winds late yesterday allowed for some low-level moisture increase.
At this time would expect worse case MVFR visibilities.
With high pressure over kflo/klbt terminals have indicated
light/variable winds through the taf period. Light/variable winds at
the coastal terminals this morning will become northwest-NE after the
inversion breaks 13-14z. Winds will then become southeast to south
as the sea breeze kicks in by afternoon. Few-scattered cumulus can be
expected with the sea breeze.
Extended outlook...early morning fog will restrict visibilities to MVFR/IFR
Monday through Thursday at kflo/klbt. Otherwise VFR.
&&
Marine...
near term /through tonight/...
as of 314 am Sunday...no significant marine hazards on the waters
aside from increased boating traffic over the Holiday weekend.
Expect light and variable winds today...northwest this morning
then turing onshore in the afternoon as high pressure becomes
established offshore. A weak sea breeze circulation today will
support an onshore trajectory of winds through afternoon into
early evening. With light winds...longer period southeast waves will
be detectable...1-3 feet in 8 second intervals...mixed with a
light wind chop today. No thunderstorms of restrictions to visibility
expected on the 0-20nm waters through tonight.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
as of 330 am Sunday...high pressure will shift further off shore
through the week allowing for a S-southeast return flow to set up. The
flow will remain light as gradient remains relaxed. Expect winds
will be slightly more variable early Monday becoming more
southeasterly by afternoon remaining 10 kts or less. This will
produce rather benign seas 1 to 3 feet with a slight chop with spike
in winds each afternoon in sea breeze near shore.
Long term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
as of 330 PM Saturday... typical Summer-like pattern will set up
as Bermuda high pressure ridges back through our local waters. As
the high stretches out through the week...winds will gain more of
an easterly component with east-southeast winds 10 ts or less expected.
Overall expect benign marine conditions to continue with seas
rising slightly in a persistent southeast push up to 2 to 4 feet.
&&
Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...none.
NC...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Near term...mjc
short term...rgz
long term...rgz
aviation...mrr
