Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1218 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Mesoscale discussion...
issued at 1129 am CDT sun may 19 2013
The going forecast and hazardous weather outlook and expecatations
seem on track for development and evolution of severe convection
later this afternoon through the evening. Latest day1 Storm Prediction Center outlook
explains this well...with initial focus along the retreating
mesoscale outflow boundary and dry-line across portions of central
and south central Kansas by mid-afternoon. This activity should
then evolve eastward and affect areas east of the Turnpike during
the evening hours. Stronger flow aloft today in the presence of
robust instability and low level shear supports the potential for
tornadoes with longer track lengths across southeast Kansas. Very
large hail is also expected. There is some concern for locally
rainfall overnight across southeast Kansas as well.
Ked
&&
Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 320 am CDT sun may 19 2013
Forecast highlight (major): severe thunderstorms and rain potential remains high for most
areas along & east of I-135 this afternoon & tonight.
Upper-deck trough that was digging over Great Basin early Sat morning is
behaving much as expected by taking on strong negative tilt from the
central rockies to the OK/Texas panhandles. This negatively-tilted upper trough
will continue to play major role in the development of exceptionally
powerful severe thunderstorms and rain (especially over southeast Kansas where better positioned under
pronounced upper diffluence enhanced by left exit region of 60-70 knots jet
streak rounding base of the trough. In response the surface cyclone situated
over western Kansas will push east/NE toward central Kansas which would enable a strong
surface dry line draped across eastern nm to push east across the panhandles. The
eastward progress of the dry line will have to be watched closely. Over the
eastern plains high octane surface-850mb fuel will spread northwest & NE respectively
across southeast Kansas. The gradually dissipating early morning thunderstorms and rain coupled
with surface heating would definitely induce further destabilization. The
convective available potential energy forecast by the NAM & especially the GFS of 2500-4000 j/kg
coupled with the increased shear should easily promote supercellular
development with the destructive hail & tornadoes the primary threats
this afternoon & early this evening. Like last night...the primary
threat should transition to damaging winds & with precipitable waters
increasing to 125-150% of normal the ++ra potential would also
increase over southeast Kansas.
On Monday...with deep cyclogenesis having already ensud over Nebraska
& South Dakota the surface front may stall as it approaches central Kansas. As such +tsra
are likely to increase over southeast Kansas Monday afternoon & night. The potential
for flooding would certainly increase over southeast Kansas. In fact a Flood
Watch may be required for southeast Kansas Monday night. As the northern plains cyclone
occludes Tuesday morning deepening SW-westerly flow should enable rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to
end over southeast Kansas Tuesday afternoon.
Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 320 am CDT sun may 19 2013
After a 2-day intermission scattered -shra/-tsra should return to the region
Wednesday night with chances steadily increasing from Thursday Onward. The culprit
is a 2nd middle-level shortwave that'll move southeast around the base of the middle
level low. With this scenario having changed little over the past 3-4
runs the inherited forecast has been kept intact.
&&
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1211 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Scattered severe convection is expected along and ahead of a
dry-line and cold front later this afternoon through the evening
for locations along/east of the I-135 corridor. Chances will
diminish by early evening along a Salina to Wichita line but
continue through the overnight hours across southeast Kansas.
Severe wind gusts and large hail are expected with the super-
cell storms across southeast Kansas with tornadoes possible.
The gusty south winds will shift to the northwest and diminish
tonight behind the dry-line and front across central Kansas.
While mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
valid period...periods of MVFR and IFR can be expected in and
near the convection. This will be handled with short term
amendments as convection looks more imminent.
Ked
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 88 60 81 58 / 50 30 30 40
Hutchinson 84 58 81 55 / 50 20 20 30
Newton 87 58 79 57 / 60 30 30 30
Eldorado 86 61 81 59 / 60 50 40 50
Winfield-kwld 87 63 82 60 / 60 50 40 60
Russell 81 53 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
Great Bend 81 52 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
Salina 83 55 80 53 / 50 20 20 30
McPherson 84 56 80 55 / 50 20 20 30
Coffeyville 85 67 83 62 / 60 80 60 90
Chanute 85 66 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
Iola 85 66 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
Parsons-kppf 85 67 82 62 / 70 80 60 90
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
