Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1147 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Synopsis...
issued at 324 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Mesoscale convective vortex was located over eastern Kansas as of 20z...with a few storms
still ongoing. Most of the precipitation has moved out of the
forecast area. Much of the area has remained in some type of
northerly wind component flow. The cold pool and clouds from the
mesoscale convective system that affected that area has kept temperatures down
today...with most of the strong convection relegated to the
inter mountain region at this time.
Water vapor imagery loop ending at 20z shows a low near Hudson Bay
with troughing affecting much of the eastern United States. Ridging
exists over the inter mountain west...with a closed low at 500 mb
offshore of the Pacific northwest.
Over the forecast period...the main changes will be upper level ridge
building over the region...which will cause a warming trend...and
will also result in reducing the precipitation chances for the
region.
Cook
&&
Update...
issued at 702 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
There were 2 reasons for the update: 1) to clear skies over most of
the County Warning Area as cumulus is quickly dissipating & cloudiness associated with
weak low pressure spinning over northern Arkansas is slowly vacating southeast Kansas. 2)
to remove probability of precipitation from southeast Kansas as the afore-mentioned low pressure continues
to move east across northern Arkansas.
&&
Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 324 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
The mesoscale convective vortex over eastern Kansas will move off to the east and out of
the forecast area this evening. This will bring an end to the
precipitation over southeast Kansas.
Storms will continue their development over the mountains and with
the westerly flow aloft...may reach the western portion of the
forecast area /central Kansas/ Tuesday night. There is a better
chance of that occurring Wednesday as stronger supporting moisture
transport is in place. Low confidence in organized severe chances
during this time given the lack of deep layer shear...but will
continue to monitor it.
As for temperatures...upper level ridge building gets going which
will result in a warming trend during the latter portion of the period.
One thing Worth noting...the wind forecast seems to have been
well underdone in the Friday through Sunday time-frame. BUFKIT
momentum Transfer suggests winds in the area of 25 knots across
the region...a bit higher along and west of Interstate 135...a bit
lower east of it.
This is significantly lower than the gridded nwp data that we are
looking at. The BUFKIT data has a long history of verification
that is very good...as does the gridded MOS /statistical
guidance/ which is supporting a higher wind forecast for that time
period. Furthermore...examining the Iowa state meteogram
forecasts...we are the low outlier with the speeds in the forecast.
As a result...coordinated a deviation from the extended forecast
data that we normally populate the forecast with and have gone
higher with the wind speed forecast...more in line with the BUFKIT
forecast.
Cook
Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 324 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Main challenge here will be temperatures as the ridging continues
to increase over the region through the period. Highs will reach
well into the 90s by the weekend...which is about 10 degrees above
normal. There is nothing though that would indicate any kind of
significant heat indices at this time. No significant
precipitation chances noted at this time.
Cook
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1142 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
No wind & soaked grounds point to fog development over southeast Kansas early
this morning & have now assigned 2-4sm br to kcnu from 09z-13z. No
other difficulties to be encountered for the remainder of 18/06z
taf edition with light & variable winds becoming southeast <=10kts by 1818z.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 65 84 65 85 / 10 10 20 30
Hutchinson 64 84 64 85 / 0 10 20 30
Newton 64 83 63 84 / 0 10 10 20
Eldorado 64 83 64 83 / 0 10 10 20
Winfield-kwld 65 85 65 85 / 10 10 10 30
Russell 63 83 64 85 / 20 10 30 30
Great Bend 63 83 64 84 / 10 10 30 30
Salina 64 85 65 86 / 0 10 20 30
McPherson 64 84 64 85 / 0 10 20 30
Coffeyville 66 86 66 85 / 10 10 10 20
Chanute 64 85 65 84 / 0 10 10 20
Iola 64 85 65 84 / 0 10 10 20
Parsons-kppf 65 85 65 84 / 10 10 10 20
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Es
