Debate de meteorólogos científicos
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
443 PM PST Thursday Dec 12 2013
Update...updated air quality issues section.
high pressure will build over the area this weekend for continued
dry conditions and a warming trend.
Discussion...over the central California interior nothing but
clear skies this afternoon. Satellite does show some unusual
showers and thunderstorms remaining over southeast California.
Meanwhile upstream water vapor imagery shows a trio of vorticity
centers running into The Big Ridge and dissipating as they move
to the east. With clear skies and light winds, the main forecast
challenge this afternoon is trending high temperatures for
tomorrow and tonight's lows. The airmass has warmed over the San
Joaquin Valley this afternoon and dew points have also risen
several degrees. For tonight, I expect just a few locations to
have sub 28 degrees lows and these will be over the center of the
valley, near Allensworth and the old Tulare Lake Bed. No freeze
product will be needed.
Forecast models bring a weakening shortwave trough across the
north state tomorrow afternoon then build in a very strong area of
high pressure over the region. Heights at 500 mb rise to around
5850 meters and for December this is a tall column of atmosphere.
This ridge is projected to hold and dominate the weather pattern
over central California into late Tuesday of next week. There
after either a weak transitory shortwave trough will pass harmlessly
across the north on Wednesday per the European model (ecmwf) model or colder and
deeper trough will arrive on Thursday from western Canada. The
only trending into the very questionable forecast period thus far
is to lower temperatures and increase winds over the Sierra.
San Joaquin Valley...local IFR visibilities in fog from 10z to 18z
Friday. Otherwise VFR with local MVFR visibilities in haze/fog.
Mountains/deserts...VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Friday December 13 2013... unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kern... Kings and Tulare counties. Fireplace/wood stove burning
is prohibited in Fresno... Kern... Kings and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 12-12 69:1969 40:1932 55:1929 18:1932
kfat 12-13 72:1929 32:1972 54:1929 23:1940
kfat 12-14 74:1929 32:1972 52:1922 21:1967
Kbfl 12-12 75:1913 43:1932 53:1893 20:1901
kbfl 12-13 79:1998 41:1972 54:1933 20:1901
kbfl 12-14 80:1958 36:1972 53:1950 20:1901