Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
635 am CDT Friday may 24 2013
Aviation...
nocturnal stratus is having a hard time organizing presumably due
to the impacts of the mesoscale convective system to the west. Observation are showing MVFR ceilings
trying to move into the Waco area and will show MVFR there this
morning. Regardless airmass is moist in the low levels...so with
heating some MVFR cumulus should develop at all taf sites by 15z
before lifting to VFR at 18z.
Convection forecast is difficult to determine at this point.
Weakness aloft and diurnal heating should promote scattered
convection across the area today. Will indicate a window of thunderstorms in the vicinity
from from middle-afternoon to early evening...but confidence is not
especially high whether airports will experience impacts from
thunder at this point.
Tr.92
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Previous discussion... /issued 257 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/
convection over the Edwards Plateau this morning has spun up an
mesoscale convective vortex...which is forecast to move east-northeast into southwestern North Texas.
This forcing should kick up more convection as seen in European model (ecmwf) and
GFS. NAM forecasts new convection in the northern Texas Panhandle this
morning...but recent radar shows that convection is weakening so
have disregarded the NAM/S solution of a southeast-moving mesoscale convective system
moving into western counties. Both solutions are wet for the
area...just a difference on mechanisms and local precipitation amounts.
There is also a short wave just off of central Baja California that should
track east-northeast and move into our area this afternoon or
evening...adding support to the forecast of convection moving light snow shower
NE this afternoon/evening. Not all areas will see rain...but cannot
eliminate any areas given differences in model precipitation
forecasts so probability of precipitation extend across all of North Texas.
Will keep lows mainly in the 70s and highs in the middle-upper 80s
through Sunday due to fairly high
