Debate de meteorólogos científicos
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
617 am EST Friday Dec 13 2013
dry high pressure over the region this morning will move off the
coast this afternoon. Moisture will increase overnight ahead of
storm system set to cross the area Saturday into Saturday night.
Widespread rain is expected Saturday. Dry high pressure to return
for much of next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure over the area this morning will move off the coast
this afternoon. Our airmass will remain dry today with ph2o less
than one-half inch. Afternoon highs are still expected to range
from the lower 50s north to near 60 south given weak warm air
advection. Sunny skies this morning will give way to increasing
high clouds this afternoon.
Return flow and increasing isentropic lift will begin in earnest
overnight. Moisture and clouds will be on the increase. Could see
a few light showers develop around daybreak Saturday. The best
chance for any rainfall will be across the south and west. Went
with models consensus...which have been consistent...for lows in
the middle 30s north to lower 40s south.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
a low pressure system will cross the area Saturday afternoon and
push off the coast Saturday night. Models are showing two pieces
of upper energy moving through the region. The first appears to
push farther north...skirting the forecast area to the west and
north during the afternoon Saturday...and is associated more with
a surface low as it moves towards the region. The second piece of
energy moves through late Saturday night and Sunday morning...and
is situated behind the front. This generally leads to good chances
for rainfall from late Saturday morning through Saturday night.
Though the best chance centered from Saturday afternoon into the
evening. Will continue with categorical probability of precipitation for much of that time
frame. Cannot rule out thunder...especially across the south.
By sunrise Sunday...rain should be east of the midlands and csra.
Cold air advection will overspread the forecast area with the low
pressure system pushing off the coast. Timing of precipitation and
possible wedge development causes some uncertainty for maximum temperatures.
Should see maximum temperatures Saturday ranging from upper 40s across the
Piedmont and north midlands to the the middle 60s across the
southeast midlands. Went with consensus for lows in the lower 40s
to lower 50s Saturday night. Kept highs on Sunday in the middle 50s
to around 60 given clearing skies and downslope flow.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the storm system will be well east of the region Sunday night as
dry high pressure begins to build into the region. This air mass
will dominate the weather for the majority of the long-term
period. Rain chances will be almost zero. Temperatures will remain
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue today into at least early tonight.
Surface high pressure axis over the area will lead to light and
variable winds today. High level cloudiness will spread eastward
into the region. Surface high pressure will slide to our east
tonight...with isentropic lift beginning to develop. Some light rain
possible by 12z Sat...but it will take a while for low levels to
moisten enough for restrictions to develop. MVFR ceilings possible by
12z Sat...but not enough confidence to include in current taf.
Extended aviation outlook...rain will develop Saturday. Light rain
early with better rain chances afternoon and evening. Expect
lowering ceilings/visibilities to MVFR to IFR Saturday. IFR Sat nt. Conditions
expected to improve to VFR Sunday...with VFR continuing through Tuesday.